Watching the Astros

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Ehh, I disagree.  Their OD payroll hasn’t eclipsed 190M and at its peak, they had guys you really don’t need to contend making big money.

Its possible they payroll could spike to 165ish a year here or there just because of arb raises but basically, if you can’t perennially contend with 150M, you aren’t good at your job.

Look at Tamp as exhibit A.

It's actually pretty amazing, given how easy all of this is, that every team can't win at least 95 games a year.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ehh, I disagree.  Their OD payroll hasn’t eclipsed 190M and at its peak, they had guys you really don’t need to contend making big money.

Its possible they payroll could spike to 165ish a year here or there just because of arb raises but basically, if you can’t perennially contend with 150M, you aren’t good at your job.

Look at Tamp as exhibit A.

I’m saying there’s a qualitative difference between the strength of the Astros/Dodgers teams the last 6 years vs. the Rays/Guardians.  Smart team with lots of money > smart team with less money.   The latter can contend and sometimes win, but domination for a half-decade or more probably isn’t in the cards.   

[Oriole1940]

Yes, the proof is here.  What other MLB team could lose a player of Correas quality and put in right away, a player of Penas quality.  It would even challenge the Yankees.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m saying there’s a qualitative difference between the strength of the Astros/Dodgers teams the last 6 years vs. the Rays/Guardians.  Smart team with lots of money > smart team with less money.   The latter can contend and sometimes win, but domination for a half-decade or more probably isn’t in the cards.   

The Rays have been really good for the last 14 years or, in almost every season. 

And the Orioles don't need to be down at the levels of Tampa and Cleveland in terms of payroll.

If you don't commit to stupid contracts, draft and develop well, make timely trades and have the proper culture, you can easily contend on a 150M payroll.  To say you need to be 180-250M is just factually wrong.  Does it give you a larger margin for error?  Of course but that doesn't mean you can't contend by doing things the right way.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Oriole1940 said:

Yes, the proof is here.  What other MLB team could lose a player of Correas quality and put in right away, a player of Penas quality.  It would even challenge the Yankees.  

That's because the Yankees don't do a good job of building a team. They put out a team of mercenaries that are usually on their decline.  They win enough games to make the playoffs a lot of the time but they aren't winning titles because they don't produce good TEAMS.  Its a collection of individuals.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Rays have been really good for the last 14 years or, in almost every season. 

And the Orioles don't need to be down at the levels of Tampa and Cleveland in terms of payroll.

If you don't commit to stupid contracts, draft and develop well, make timely trades and have the proper culture, you can easily contend on a 150M payroll.  To say you need to be 180-250M is just factually wrong.  Does it give you a larger margin for error?  Of course but that doesn't mean you can't contend by doing things the right way.

You don’t seem to understand what I am saying.  I’m not talking about “contending.”  I’m talking about replicating what the Astros have done.  So let’s be clear about it.   The Astros have played .629 baseball the last 6 years, a 102 win/season clip.  They’ve gone to the ALCS six years in a row.  They’ve gone to the World Series four times.   They are on the verge on winning it twice (we’ll see if they do, I’m not assuming they will).

The Rays?  They’ve never won 102 games in their history, much less averaged it over a 6 year period.  They’ve never won a World Series.  They’ve made the playoffs frequently, but have made it as far as the ALCS twice in their history.  

So, it’s not the same thing.   I absolutely hope we can equal and exceed Tampa’s success.   I think coming anywhere close to what the Astros have done without a top-tier payroll is just about impossible.  
 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You don’t seem to understand what I am saying.  I’m not talking about “contending.”  I’m talking about replicating what the Astros have done.  So let’s be clear about it.   The Astros have played .629 baseball the last 6 years, a 102 win/season clip.  They’ve gone to the ALCS six years in a row.  They’ve gone to the World Series four times.   They are on the verge on winning it twice (we’ll see if they do, I’m not assuming they will).

The Rays?  They’ve never won 102 games in their history, much less averaged it over a 6 year period.  They’ve never won a World Series.  They’ve made the playoffs frequently, but have made it as far as the ALCS twice in their history.  

So, it’s not the same thing.   I absolutely hope we can equal and exceed Tampa’s success.   I think coming anywhere close to what the Astros have done without a top-tier payroll is just about impossible.  
 

Well first of all, the playoffs are a crapshoot.  Its not like the Rays haven't had teams capable of winning, they just haven't done it.  Now, perhaps they are missing that player or 2 they cant afford to help put them over the top...but at a 150M payroll, you can do that.

As for the winning of 100 games or more.  Whatever.  92 wins or 102 wins..you are still in the dance.  If you want to break it down that its difficult to win 100 or more every year without spending big, thats fine.  I don't really care about winning 100 games.  I care about winning 90 or more and making it in.  

My focus is being competitive and in the playoffs most, if not every year. The focus is never on 102 wins.  Its just winning as much as you can.

You don't need to spend well over 150M to do that. 

I mentioned the Rays (you later Cle) to show that you can win and contend every year with a lower payroll but the reality is that I am also talking about spending double what they do.  The Orioles, as an organization building the way they are, can be what Houston is (a perennial contender) if they keep doing things correctly and are allowed to spend to the levels the organization has already shown and proven it can do.  They don't need to go 30-50M beyond those levels to accomplish that goal.

Edited November 4, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Rays have been really good for the last 14 years or, in almost every season. 

And the Orioles don't need to be down at the levels of Tampa and Cleveland in terms of payroll.

If you don't commit to stupid contracts, draft and develop well, make timely trades and have the proper culture, you can easily contend on a 150M payroll.  To say you need to be 180-250M is just factually wrong.  Does it give you a larger margin for error?  Of course but that doesn't mean you can't contend by doing things the right way.

Agree with the above except "easily". Not impossible by any means, but that's not the word I'd use. For one thing, we have Tampa in our division so we are competing against three teams that have more resources as well as another team that is very good at a low payroll model. 

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not quite, he's trying to do it with what is probably a much lower ceiling on payroll.

He also seems to have a smaller international scouting budget. 

[LookinUp]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

True, though I’d say that in a way, Elias’ influence is still being felt in Houston.  Rookie sensation Jeremy Pena, who had had a huge impact in the postseason, was a 3rd round pick in Elias’ final draft for Houston in 2018.   Chas McCormick, who made the spectacular 9th inning catch last night, was a 17th round pick by Elias in 2017.   I think pretty much every significant home grown player on Houston’s roster other than Altuve was drafted or signed during Elias’ tenure as Director of Amateur Scouting/Asst. GM.  Only two players drafted by Houston in the post-Elias era have debuted in the major leagues yet, and neither has had significant impact yet.  That’s not intended as a criticism, I’m just saying it’s too soon to know if Houston will continue to be as successful in drafting and signing players as they were under Elias.  

For the umpteenth time on this site, I say the O's need to pay this man a crap load of money, yes above market, to stay. 

And they need to do it soon. Big time $ are coming after him if the O's don't lock him up first.

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Agree with the above except "easily". Not impossible by any means, but that's not the word I'd use. For one thing, we have Tampa in our division so we are competing against three teams that have more resources as well as another team that is very good at a low payroll model. 

Easily in terms of, if you do it right, that is (without question) plenty of payroll to contend.

 

[Frobby]

51 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

For the umpteenth time on this site, I say the O's need to pay this man a crap load of money, yes above market, to stay. 

And they need to do it soon. Big time $ are coming after him if the O's don't lock him up first.

And again, we have no idea what his contract terms are.   For all we know, he’s been extended already.  We don’t know anything when it comes to Elias’ arrangements.  

[Ohfan67]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Watching the Astros it looks like exactly what Elias is trying to do here. Lots of bats through the draft, but if only we could get the international arms that Hou has. They are just absolutely loaded with electric arms. 

They have 11 pitchers who threw enough innings to "qualify". The average ERA+ for those 11 pitchers was 134 this season. 

Edited November 4, 2022 by Ohfan67

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

They have 11 pitchers who threw enough innings to "qualify". The average ERA+ for those 11 pitchers was 134 this season. 

I liked the digest I heard once this month that HOU pitchers won the old school Triple Crown - led league in Wins, ERA and Strikeouts.

In the 2nd inning last night, future Hall of Famer and Cy Young favorite Justin Verlander was maybe one batter away from being hooked for Ryne Stanek, and then "the rest of the guys in the bullpen" for Game 5 of the World Series.

[Yossarian]

Could Stowers or Beavers develop into a Kyle Tucker-type player?