Elias sounds like he is shooting high

[Sports Guy]

It really is crazy how many different directions the team can go and how many guys are up in the air for “what do you do with them”.

[NCRaven]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

It really is crazy how many different directions the team can go and how many guys are up in the air for “what do you do with them”.

Agreed.  First time in a long time that every option is in play.  Highly rated prospects that are near ML ready.  You can promote and play them or include them in trades.  Payroll flexibility to sign high end free agents.  The Rule 5 draft and waiver wire pickups aren’t the only games in town any more.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

BUZZ, your girlfriend..Woof!

IE, Eovaldi sucks 

Ok. He was worth 4.5 WAR in 2021.  That doesn’t suck.  That is an outlier in a career where he’s accumulated 16 WAR.  

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ok. He was worth 4.5 WAR in 2021.  That doesn’t suck.  That is an outlier in a career where he’s accumulated 16 WAR.  

Not saying I agree or disagree.  But that’s what his post was.

[MarCakes21]

41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

BUZZ, your girlfriend..Woof!

IE, Eovaldi sucks 

Okay, insert $20mil pitcher here.....don't you break even on WAR from trading value for Lopez and then signing Nimmo vs. just signing $20mil 2.5 WAR pitcher?  Whats the difference?

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Okay, insert $20mil pitcher here.....don't you break even on WAR from trading value for Lopez and then signing Nimmo vs. just signing $20mil 2.5 WAR pitcher?  Whats the difference?

The difference is (and this same logic applies to Santander) what is your belief in the player.

For example, I want to deal Santander because I don’t believe he replicates what he did in 2022 and I don’t think he should be relied on to stay healthy. But I also recognize that you have to replace him if you do move him.  I would just rather make sure I capitalize on his all time high value.

Mullins is similar in that I want to cash in on him albeit for different reasons. 
 

Now, I probably wouldn’t sign Nimmo to replace him but if the contract is low enough, I would consider it.

Its buying and selling.  Case to made for keeping and buying though.

Edited November 10, 2022 by Sports Guy

[MarCakes21]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The difference is (and this same logic applies to Santander) what is your belief in the player.

For example, I want to deal Santander because I don’t believe he replicates what he did in 2022 and I don’t think he should be relied on to stay healthy. But I also recognize that you have to replace him if you do move him.  I would just rather make sure I capitalize on his all time high value.

Mullins is similar in that I want to cash in on him albeit for different reasons. 
 

Now, I probably wouldn’t sign Nimmo to replace him but if the contract is low enough, I would consider it.

Its buying and selling.  Case to made for keeping and buying though.

Makes sense, but two have to play that game.  You have to make the other team a believer and you have to hope you get similar value back in return.  Also, consider the financials as well, which aren't a big deal for this team. 

But in a hypothetical world, if you trade Mullins and Santander and get back a No 2 and No 3 starter, but you need to replace those guys for the next year or two.  And you replace them with Nimmo (~5/$100) and Benintendi (3/$45) - again hypothetical signs, you probably don't want to clog the roster for 3+ with Benintendi so you could sub Profar or Conforto.  Are you better?  Or would you have been better off spending on Eovaldi (2/$30)+ Bassitt (3/$50).  I'll take option two personally.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Makes sense, but two have to play that game.  You have to make the other team a believer and you have to hope you get similar value back in return.  Also, consider the financials as well, which aren't a big deal for this team. 

But in a hypothetical world, if you trade Mullins and Santander and get back a No 2 and No 3 starter, but you need to replace those guys for the next year or two.  And you replace them with Nimmo (~5/$100) and Benintendi (3/$45) - again hypothetical signs, you probably don't want to clog the roster for 3+ with Benintendi so you could sub Profar or Conforto.  Are you better?  Or would you have been better off spending on Eovaldi (2/$30)+ Bassitt (3/$50).  I'll take option two personally.

It’s a fair question.  It just depends on so many factors.  
 

It’s not about one move (which I know you aren’t saying it is).  You have to judge the whole picture.

 

[LookinUp]

I have a feeling that Elias knows most of what he plans to do this offseason.

The market could change, but I'd wager he knows what trades he's targeting and what FAs he's targeting. 

[Just Regular]

The detail about 5pm tonight was new to me.    I gather that means all the QO outcomes have to become public knowledge in the next few hours for the markets on the Taillon type guys.

Our Jayson Werth moment is here.     Elias has mastered the art of $3-$6 limit well enough to sit a no-limit seat.    The cards still might go fold-fold-fold-fold.

 

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, btdart20 said:

“We want to bring in one or two talented position players that’ll just boost the lineup,” Elias said.

 just improve our team to the degree that we want to in the finances that I’m expecting to use.”

Correa checks all the boxes mentioned in Elias' checklist above except the finances.

 

“Our priority -- hopefully, if we’re able to do it -- is to bring in an established starter for one of the, let’s say, top three spots in the rotation,” Elias said. “Just somebody who’s been there, done that, that you can clearly pencil in ahead of the group that we have now in terms of expectations and accomplishments thus far. That would be a big boost.”

This piece also tells us he's likely not going after Verlander or deGrom (and maybe not Rodon either).  But that next tier of talent who are clearly ahead of (at least as far as ML resume goes) our young guys is in the mix.

Finances.  We just don't know the budget he's been given.  I can imagine Elias thinking through these options as he presents his business plan: 

1. "Hey John A, we just beat our 2022 goals and just missed the playoffs on that budget.  I've got 2 key holes in the roster that need to be filled and have these types of FAs in mind.  Here's their projected costs.  I need $30m more for a total of $80m for a legit shot at a playoff run.  This gives us some payroll flexibility to adjust at the trade deadline and after 2023 as well."  

2. "Hey John A, we just beat our 2022 goals on that budget.  I've got 3-5 key holes in the roster that need to be filled and have these types of FAs in mind.  Here's their projected costs.  I need $60m more for a total of $110m for a legit shot at a playoff run.  This limits the amount of budget flexibility we have in season and after 2023."  

I won’t like the move …I’m just saying I think that’s what he’s doing.

I can’t believe he’s a 5 war player 22 homers, 60 RBIs, .366 OBP. The later is fine but I think his homers drop into the 10-15 range. I don’t see how he’s worth 30 million.

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I won’t like the move …I’m just saying I think that’s what he’s doing.

I can’t believe he’s a 5 war player 22 homers, 60 RBIs, .366 OBP. The later is fine but I think his homers drop into the 10-15 range. I don’t see how he’s worth 30 million.

Picking up former draftees on waivers is one thing.  Signing one for 30M per year when you have Mateo/Ortiz/Holliday in the organization would be befuddling for a team that needs to be payroll conscious.

Letting Correa walk and replacing him with Jeremy Peña worked out pretty well for the Astros.   That’s what Elias wants to create here.

Edited November 10, 2022 by RZNJ

[MarCakes21]

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s a fair question.  It just depends on so many factors.  
 

It’s not about one move (which I know you aren’t saying it is).  You have to judge the whole picture.

 

Yea, I just think the trade from value then sign replacement value is a hard bait and switch to follow.  Have to have a lot of cards fall right.  You either plan on one (trade from surplus) or the other (sign assets).

[Sports Guy]

Article on Eutaw Street Report talks  about how the Os should go after Trevor Rogers. 
 

Like that idea?

[mlrhode]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Article on Eutaw Street Report talks  about how the Os should go after Trevor Rogers. 
 

Like that idea?

Yes, Hays for Rogers. both coming off down years