Orioles 2022 #10 Prospect Heston Kjerstad - RF

[Tony-OH]

Although his first full professional season was delayed by a spring training hamstring injury, the former 1st round pick ended his year on a high note with a great AFL season and ending up as the Orioles #10 prospect.

Heston Kjerstad
Pos: OF
Bats: L
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23
2022 Level: A/A+

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 30/45
Game Power: 30/60
Raw Power: 65/65
Run: 45/45
Defense: 40/45

Most Likely Future Role: Starting right fielder
Ceiling: 1st Division Starting right fielder

Stats

What we know: The Orioles 1st pick (2nd overall) in the 2020 finally made it to the field after battling complications from Myocarditis and then a hamstring injury this past spring. Made his professional debut on June 10th with Delmarva in the Carolina League and immediately destroyed the young pitching in the league slashing .463/.551/.650/1.201 in 98 PAs in 22 games.

Despite the impressive numbers, he was not driving the ball much and hitting the ball on the ground too much (53.1 GB%) while hitting just two home runs. He was also jumping on a lot of fastballs early in the count so the Orioles sent him to Aberdeen (High-A, Sally League) where he immediately found trouble with offspeed pitches. He has plenty of bat speed to get to upper velocity, but seemed to have some trouble picking up spin and changeups. Most of his power this season went to the opposite field. Despite some of the struggles (23.6% K rate) and the lack of power (.129 ISO/3 HRs in 186 PAs) in Aberdeen, his numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt since several Aberdeen hitters, including Colton Cowser and Connor Norby, struggled there and then hit well in AA.

Trying to give him some more PAs, the Orioles sent him to the Arizona Fall League where he slashed .357/.385/.622/1.007 in 104 PAs with 5 home runs. Although the pitching quality was down, and the AFL is typically a hitter’s league, he finally showed his power potential when he started turning on some balls for home runs. He was even selected to be part of the home run derby, coming in second.

While he does hit righties a bit better than lefties, he doesn’t have a huge platoon difference.

Defensively, Kjerstad is fair at best out in right field where he catches everything hit to him, but he looks tentative at times with jumps and doesn’t have the footspeed to make up for the below average jumps. He’s got an average arm that can play in RF, but his throws can be inconsistent.

What we don’t know: Kjerstad started to pull the ball for power in the AFL after hitting most of home runs to left and left-center this year. Can he get the Bowie bump like Cowser and Norby? With a full offseason to get stronger, will next year be a break out year where his talent can shine through? Will he be able to adjust to upper level offspeed pitching? He’s only fair in RF defensively, so we he get better with more experience?

What we think: It was an up and down year for Kjerstad, but his AFL work ends the year on a positive note. We’ll have a better idea of what kind of player he may become after next season. He should start the year in Bowie (AA) and if he can put up some good power numbers next year there and end up with 200 PAs in AAA, he could be option for the Orioles by 2024 in RF.

The real question is what is his ceiling? It’s still tough to know because of all the injuries, but there is some pop in that bat. If he starts to tap into that more consistently, and can improve that hit tool as he moves up, he’s got a chance to be solid everyday RFer on a 1st Division team.

https://orioleshangout.com/2022-10-prospect-heston-kjerstad-rf/

2022 Highlights

[LookinUp]

I wasn't online and didn't see the vote, but am perfectly fine with Kjerstad at #10. That's especially true after his AFL season.

The glaring thing from the write-up is his hit tool. This is a guy who was drafted to hit, so a FV of 45 won't be good enough, IMO. Given the up and down nature of his season, I totally get that there's risk in his projection.

However, with the recent history in our player development, and factoring in his draft pedigree, I feel like 2023 could be a big jump forward for Kjerstad. I do worry about the Ks, but actually expect that hit tool to make a significant jump forward. Defensively, I see him as more likely to be a 1b/DH type mostly because of our other outfield options.

[Frobby]

I’d say this is the right spot for Kjerstad.   Next year is huge for him.   I think he’ll either sink or swim.  I’m somewhat optimistic, but then again, that’s my nature.  

[Just Regular]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

The glaring thing from the write-up is his hit tool. This is a guy who was drafted to hit, so a FV of 45 won't be good enough, IMO. Given the up and down nature of his season, I totally get that there's risk in his projection.

I was encouraged by this part of the write-up.     The spin and changeups part makes complete sense - cue classics like hitting a baseball the hardest thing in sports, hitting is timing, pitching is disrupting timing, etc.    The skill fades if you can't practice it, as became the story of a couple years of his life.    Hopefully when he's 36 he'll have that Harold Baines roll out of bed rep after about 8000 good PA.    Schwarber's kind of lived out what a strong version of this profile making it looks like.

 

He has plenty of bat speed to get to upper velocity, but seemed to have some trouble picking up spin and changeups.

[LookinUp]

5 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I was encouraged by this part of the write-up.     The spin and changeups part makes complete sense - cue classics like hitting a baseball the hardest thing in sports, hitting is timing, pitching is disrupting timing, etc.    The skill fades if you can't practice it, as became the story of a couple years of his life.    Hopefully when he's 36 he'll have that Harold Baines roll out of bed rep after about 8000 good PA.    Schwarber's kind of lived out what a strong version of this profile making it looks like.

 

He has plenty of bat speed to get to upper velocity, but seemed to have some trouble picking up spin and changeups.

Yeah, I see a better FV with the hit tool. Like Frobby, I tend to be optimistic though. If he ends up a 45 hitter, I'll be disappointed.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Yeah, I see a better FV with the hit tool. Like Frobby, I tend to be optimistic though. If he ends up a 45 hitter, I'll be disappointed.

If it comes with 60 power, that’s not really disappointing to me.  I saw a scout lay a Kyle Schwarber comp on Kjerstad.  That’s not ideal for a 1:2 pick, but I could live with it.  

[btdart20]

Thanks for the write-up @Tony-OH!  

@Just Regular - Schwarber looks like a good comp.  Wild, variable outcomes from year-to-year.  Solid for a #6-7 hitter after a few high OBP/OPS guys.  He absolutely needs the reps.  But if Kjerstad can get to the 12-13% BB% and keep the K% under 30%...  

[Tony-OH]

If Kjerstad turns into Swarber, that would be great, but Max Myers or Reid Detmers sure would have looked good in the system right now. Imagine having him and GRod ready next year for the rotation? They could of had Detmers AND Mayo and Baumler but you do have to giver all teams a bit of a bye for that 5 round 2020 draft.

At least they didn't go Asa Lacey or Austin Martin.

 

 

[Frobby]

Kjerstad was featured on MLB Pipeline’s November 15 podcast discussing the AFL, which you can find here, among other places: https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/ENTDM8206698407?selected=CAD3266447253

At about the 23:55 mark, Jim Callis is previewing his post-season “top prospects in the AFL” list and says it’s between Kjerstad and Zac Veen for nos. 4-5 on the list.   Callis says that some scouts he talked to felt that Kjerstad was the top prospect in the league.  He also mentions that Kjerstad tends to look for a certain pitch in a certain zone until he’s at two strikes, and lays off if he doesn’t get it, which is why his K rate was a bit high.   Callis says he may need to refine his approach a bit as he moves up the ladder.  

Then at the 36:00 mark, Callis interviews Kjerstad for about 20 minutes.  Among other things, Kjerstad talks about his approach at the plate, his experience with myocarditis and the hamstring, and how the O’s staff presents analytic information to the hitters.  It’s worth a listen.  Kjerstad says he didn’t find out about the myocarditis until very shortly before Fall instructs were scheduled to start, so we can put to bed the idea that this was something knowable at the time of the draft.   
 

 

[Jim'sKid26]

On 11/14/2022 at 9:15 AM, Tony-OH said:

If Kjerstad turns into Swarber, that would be great, but Max Myers or Reid Detmers sure would have looked good in the system right now. Imagine having him and GRod ready next year for the rotation? They could of had Detmers AND Mayo and Baumler but you do have to giver all teams a bit of a bye for that 5 round 2020 draft.

At least they didn't go Asa Lacey or Austin Martin.

 

 

You of all people know that you can't really know the impact of a draft pick for many years after the draft. In five years things may look very different for all of the prospects you just named. If nothing else, we have to acknowledge that pitchers break at a rate much higher than non-pitchers. You can't tell me that pitching injuries are predictable any more than Kjerstad heart condition was predictable. Hindsight is, however, 20/20...

[Tony-OH]

17 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

You of all people know that you can't really know the impact of a draft pick for many years after the draft. In five years things may look very different for all of the prospects you just named. If nothing else, we have to acknowledge that pitchers break at a rate much higher than non-pitchers. You can't tell me that pitching injuries are predictable any more than Kjerstad heart condition was predictable. Hindsight is, however, 20/20...

Go back and reread my post then come back and tell me where I suggested we know the outcome of all the draft picks in that draft.

I just said those two pitchers would have looked pretty good instead right now because they both are major league ready as the Orioles head into a window.

I never stated it was a scouting problem or that anything with Kjerstad's illness and injury could have been predicted. You literally read what I said and jumped not once on the "jumped to the conclusion mat", but multiple times to come up with that post.

 

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Go back and reread my post then come back and tell me where I suggested we know the outcome of all the draft picks in that draft.

I just said those two pitchers would have looked pretty good instead right now because they both are major league ready as the Orioles head into a window.

I never stated it was a scouting problem or that anything with Kjerstad's illness and injury could have been predicted. You literally read what I said and jumped not once on the "jumped to the conclusion mat", but multiple times to come up with that post.

 

ok. I obviously misinterpreted what you meant. What are you saying? Would you rather have taken Detmers or Myers at the time of the draft? My point is you, and almost everyone else, had no way of knowing, at the time of the draft, who was going to be a better prospect. To use a common phrase, Sh-- happens. Draft picks sometimes don't work out and some of them take more time to develop than other. I took from your comment that you thought Detmers or Myers was a better pick. If I misinterpreted your statement, forgive me. 

[Tony-OH]

22 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

ok. I obviously misinterpreted what you meant. What are you saying? Would you rather have taken Detmers or Myers at the time of the draft? My point is you, and almost everyone else, had no way of knowing, at the time of the draft, who was going to be a better prospect. To use a common phrase, Sh-- happens. Draft picks sometimes don't work out and some of them take more time to develop than other. I took from your comment that you thought Detmers or Myers was a better pick. If I misinterpreted your statement, forgive me. 

No, my entire point was that I would rather have Detmers or Myers right now. It was a throw away comment that was not meant to disparage Kjerstad or the scouting staff. 

Saying that, as of right now, they look like they would be better picks. I agree, only time will tell this fully.

[2001OriolesFan]

Kjerstad is our future #5 hitter and 1st baseman.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, 2001OriolesFan said:

Kjerstad is our future #5 hitter and 1st baseman.

I'd be fine with that.