Orioles 2022 #3 Prospect Jackson Holliday - SS

[Tony-OH]

Jackson Holliday
Pos: SS
Bats: L
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 18
2021 Level: FCL/A

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 35/70
Game Power: 25/55
Raw Power: 35/60
Run: 60/55
Defense: 40/60

Most Likely Future Role: Starting SS
Ceiling: 1st Division Starting SS, multiple All-Star appearances

2022 Highlights

What we know: The 1st overall pick in the 2022 draft, this left-handed-hitting shortstop has the making of a future superstar and the fact that he’s “only” the 3rd best prospect in this system speaks to how good the two players are that are ahead of him. In fact, we could have built a case for him to be #1 if we really wanted to, but alas being so far away from the big leagues and with just 90 professional PAs under his belt, this seems to be the right place for him.

Jackson is a legitimate five tool SS with an advance feel for hitting at a very young age. He started his career demolishing Florida Complex League pitching for a .409/.576/.591/1.167 slash line with an eye opening 10 BBs to 2 K ratio. Even more amazing he had a swinging strike % of just 5.9%. Promoted to the Carolina League where he was once of the youngest players in the league, Jackson looked to be focused on making contact over power, walking 15 times while striking out 10 in 57 Pas while slashing .238/.439/.333/.772. Even more amazing he actually cut his swinging strike % to 4.3%.

Jackson gets into deep counts often without panicking and uses the opposite field well. He didn’t drive the ball much overall, but he will certainly grow into his power potential. Having such an advanced knowledge of the strike zone and contact rate is a great base for any player.

Defensively, Jackson shows good quickness and a strong arm at shortstop and has the build to stay there long term.

He runs well, and although he’s not a burner, he’s going to steal some bases.

What we don’t know: Obviously it’s very early in his professional career and there is no telling how he can hit upper level pitching until he gets there, but his advanced approach is a great indicator. He doesn’t have massive raw power, but he does have plus raw power that he needs to learn how to tap into as he matures as a hitter.

What we think: Jackson has all makings of a player who will move very quickly through the system. His advanced feel for hitting, defensive abilities, and makeup should enable him to get through the lower levels very quickly, and it would not surprise us if he finishes 2023 in Bowie (AA). Power will most likely be the last tool to show on the field, but he will be a very exciting player to watch next season.

 

[RZNJ]

Left handed hitter. Not switch hitter. No?

[Jagwar]

Don't worry... he'll be the #1 prospect after Gunnar and GRod stay on the big league roster all season. 

[btdart20]

I'm surprised to see a 35 current hit tool.  Is that based on professional results to date?

[Frobby]

Of the various stud shortstops in today’s game, whose game does Holliday’s most closely resemble in your opinion?

Correa .279/.357/.479 (129 OPS+), plus defender (one GG).

Turner .302/.355/.487 (122 OPS+), slightly above average defender, top shelf speed.

Lindor .277/.342/.474 (117 OPS+), plus defender (two GGs).

Seager .287/.357/.494 (128 OPS+), average to slightly below defender.

Bogaerts .292/.356/.458 (117 OPS+), below average defender.

Swanson .255/.321/.417 (95 OPS+), slightly above average defender.

Baez .260/.302/.460 (103 OPS+), plus defender (one GG).

I’m basing my defensive assessments on career Rfield (same as Rdrs).   I just mentioned the GGs in passing.

My gut feeling is that Holliday probably has better plate discipline than any of these guys, but middle of the pack for BA and SLG.  Defense in the slightly above average category?  

[Tony-OH]

8 hours ago, btdart20 said:

I'm surprised to see a 35 current hit tool.  Is that based on professional results to date?

That's based on 50 being major league average. He was 18 years old, and while his approach was very advanced, I'd have to see him against upper level pitching before giving him a higher number. 

He still has a lot of learning to do that he will get in the minors.

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Don't worry... he'll be the #1 prospect after Gunnar and GRod stay on the big league roster all season. 

He certainly is the overwhelming favorite to be the #1 overall prospect on this list next year.

[RZNJ]

42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Of the various stud shortstops in today’s game, whose game does Holliday’s most closely resemble in your opinion?

Correa .279/.357/.479 (129 OPS+), plus defender (one GG).

Turner .302/.355/.487 (122 OPS+), slightly above average defender, top shelf speed.

Lindor .277/.342/.474 (117 OPS+), plus defender (two GGs).

Seager .287/.357/.494 (128 OPS+), average to slightly below defender.

Bogaerts .292/.356/.458 (117 OPS+), below average defender.

Swanson .255/.321/.417 (95 OPS+), slightly above average defender.

Baez .260/.302/.460 (103 OPS+), plus defender (one GG).

I’m basing my defensive assessments on career Rfield (same as Rdrs).   I just mentioned the GGs in passing.

My gut feeling is that Holliday probably has better plate discipline than any of these guys, but middle of the pack for BA and SLG.  Defense in the slightly above average category?  

Without diving into the stats I'm going with Lindor as the closest comparison.   Lindor didn't show much power when he was younger and I'm not sure Holliday is going to hit for a lot of power in the beginning but should grow into some like Lindor did.  Both LH hitters too.

Edited November 17, 2022 by RZNJ

[btdart20]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Without diving into the stats I'm going with Lindor as the closest comparison.   Lindor didn't show much power when he was younger and I'm not sure Holliday is going to hit for a lot of power in the beginning but should grow into some like Lindor did.  Both LH hitters too.

Lindor was my quick take too.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Lindor was my quick take too.

Yeah.  Physically too.   Lindor is listed at 5'11 190.    Holliday is listed at 6'1 175 but I'm guessing that 6'1 is being generous.  He'll fill out a little bit too.

Adley is listed at 6'2.   If he's 6'2 there's no way Holliday is 6'1.

Edited November 17, 2022 by RZNJ

[Sports Guy]

@Tony-OH did you have any thought to put Holliday at 2?

[seak05]

In an mlb pipeline q&a, a question was asked about Lawlar being the potential overall #1 prospect at the end of next year. The answer was potentially yes, but his bet was that Holliday would be #1 overall 

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, seak05 said:

In an mlb pipeline q&a, a question was asked about Lawlar being the potential overall #1 prospect at the end of next year. The answer was potentially yes, but his bet was that Holliday would be #1 overall 

Right.  That was Jim Callis.

[Frobby]

I was listening to the MLB Pipeline podcast last week, and someone posed the question “who will be the no. 1 prospect in July 2024?”   Both Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis predicted it would be Holliday.   It’s interesting that although it seemed like Druw Jones was the favorite pundit choice to be worthy of the 1:1 pick, Holliday seems to have picked up a lot of buzz since the Orioles picked him and he got his feet wet in pro ball.   

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I was listening to the MLB Pipeline podcast last week, and someone posed the question “who will be the no. 1 prospect in July 2024?”   Both Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis predicted it would be Holliday.   It’s interesting that although it seemed like Druw Jones was the favorite pundit choice to be worthy of the 1:1 pick, Holliday seems to have picked up a lot of buzz since the Orioles picked him and he got his feet wet in pro ball.   

Jones also got hurt.