The Third Base Market - Ramon Urias Trade Speculation

[MarCakes21]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Gunnar seems to be rather faster than when he was drafted.

You don't think some players can benefit from improvements in training and technique? 

I'm advocating Gunnar at SS. But pure speed, no you can't teach.  You can teach a fast guy to steal a base, but you can't teach Jesus Aguilar to be Jorge Mateo.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I'm advocating Gunnar at SS. But pure speed, no you can't teach.  You can teach a fast guy to steal a base, but you can't teach Jesus Aguilar to be Jorge Mateo.

You can't make a slow guy fast but apparently through training and teaching proper technique you can improve someone's sprint speed. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, MarCakes21 said:

I'm advocating Gunnar at SS. But pure speed, no you can't teach.  You can teach a fast guy to steal a base, but you can't teach Jesus Aguilar to be Jorge Mateo.

You can absolutely do things that aid in a prospects speed.

As for Jesus Aguilar turning into Jorge Mateo, well you can't turn Dee Strange-Gordon into Aaron Judge when it comes to power.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I understand that, but their overall WAR delta is minimal, and you cant teach speed is my point.  That speed will play at 30+ SB and GG caliber defense even with a .267 OBP.  He proved it.

He did prove it’s possible, no question.  

[MarCakes21]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

You can't make a slow guy fast but apparently through training and teaching proper technique you can improve someone's sprint speed. 

I agree with that.  And to my point, that will keep him at a plus defender and a 30+ SB even with .267 OBP.  I just would rather have Gunnar at SS giving you 5-7+ WAR and Urias at 3B giving you 2.5 than Mateo at SS giving you 2WAR and Gunnar at 3B giving you 3WAR.  That positional adjustment is sizeable (5 WAR between the two).  I think you can extract more team WAR with this config.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I agree with that.  And to my point, that will keep him at a plus defender and a 30+ SB even with .267 OBP.  I just would rather have Gunnar at SS giving you 5-7+ WAR and Urias at 3B giving you 2.5 than Mateo at SS giving you 2WAR and Gunnar at 3B giving you 3WAR.  That positional adjustment is sizeable (5 WAR between the two).  I think you can extract more team WAR with this config.

Where are you coming up with those assessments?   The positional adjustment for SS vs. 3B is about 0.5 WAR higher.  Then you have to consider how the player’s defense is at the two positions.   I doubt Gunnar is a 5-7 WAR SS but only a 3 WAR 3B.   That would only be true if he’s a much better defender at SS than he is at 3B, which is pretty unusual.  

[Sanfran327]

I think it would be a mistake to trade either one of Urias or Mateo before the deadline next year. Neither are really prime trade chips, so I see them having more value at the deadline for a contender with a real need for one of them. Let necessity drive up the market value at the deadline.

Of course, we could end up in a situation where we need both of them ourselves due to injury or ineffectiveness once the 2023 season gets underway. I wouldn't let Vavra or any of the other prospects push one of them out just yet. And for my money, I'd play Gunnar-Mateo-Urias-Mountcastle across the IF next year. Urias may have won a GG, but he also probably understands how valuable versatility is, and that being proficient at multiple positions is as good for him as it is for us.

[emmett16]

I have to imagine Urias has more value now than he ever has or ever will.  I think the time to cash in is now.  

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Sanfran327 said:

I think it would be a mistake to trade either one of Urias or Mateo before the deadline next year. Neither are really prime trade chips, so I see them having more value at the deadline for a contender with a real need for one of them. Let necessity drive up the market value at the deadline.

Of course, we could end up in a situation where we need both of them ourselves due to injury or ineffectiveness once the 2023 season gets underway. I wouldn't let Vavra or any of the other prospects push one of them out just yet. And for my money, I'd play Gunnar-Mateo-Urias-Mountcastle across the IF next year. Urias may have won a GG, but he also probably understands how valuable versatility is, and that being proficient at multiple positions is as good for him as it is for us.

If they start for us (i.e. we deem them our best options), are we really going to trade them away at the deadline?  

If they don’t start for us, wouldn’t that hurt their value?

[MarCakes21]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Where are you coming up with those assessments?   The positional adjustment for SS vs. 3B is about 0.5 WAR higher.  Then you have to consider how the player’s defense is at the two positions.   I doubt Gunnar is a 5-7 WAR SS but only a 3 WAR 3B.   That would only be true if he’s a much better defender at SS than he is at 3B, which is pretty unusual.  

Well I saw this here, but now looking that’s from 2010:

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/positional-adjustment/

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Well I saw this here, but now looking that’s from 2010:

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/positional-adjustment/

I think those are close enough, but understand that what they’re showing there are runs, not wins.  Very roughly, 10 runs = 1 win.  So +7.5 at SS vs. +2.5 at 3B = 5 runs = 0.5 WAR.  

[MarCakes21]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think those are close enough, but understand that what they’re showing there are runs, not wins.  Very roughly, 10 runs = 1 win.  So +7.5 at SS vs. +2.5 at 3B = 5 runs = 0.5 WAR.  

Got it. So say Gunnar is above average at both, and obviously his hitting is the same, there’s 0.5 WAR difference in the two.

 

the point semi holds, do you want 2.2 Mateo at SS and say 4 WAR Gunnar at 3B or 2.6 WAR urias at 3B and 4.5 WAR Gunnar at SS. Seems generally obvious to me, am I missing something there?

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Got it. So say Gunnar is above average at both, and obviously his hitting is the same, there’s 0.5 WAR difference in the two.

 

the point semi holds, do you want 2.2 Mateo at SS and say 4 WAR Gunnar at 3B or 2.6 WAR urias at 3B and 4.5 WAR Gunnar at SS. Seems generally obvious to me, am I missing something there?

Well, it depends what the difference is between Mateo at SS and Urias at SS, and whether Henderson will be more above average defensively at 3B than he is at SS.   I think it’s a pretty close call.  There’s also the question of whether Ortiz will be better overall than Mateo soon, in which case maybe you’d rather have Henderson settle in at 3B.   It all depends on how the O’s evaluate all this internally, which may not be the same as what rWAR or fWAR would say.   

[Roll Tide]

On 11/19/2022 at 8:24 PM, Camden Yards said:

Twins got this for Urshela. Urias has many more controllable years.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/twins-trade-gio-urshela-angels.html

So a little more than a lottery ticket? If that’s all you can get you keep him.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

So a little more than a lottery ticket? If that’s all you can get you keep him.

If we truly think he’s our best, then sure he starts.  If he’s not our best/bench, then I’m fine with an upside lottery for a capped out waiver claim rather than losing trade value.