“Orioles big game shopping & most believe it's exclusively rotation”

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

OK, I think I remember seeing it but I wasn't sure.  Of course MOO technically means 4-6 and not as if a guy hitting 6th is a huge offensive threat for most teams.

A friendly challenge for anyone to find a quote like that.   He did say a #1-#3 starter but that's kind of subjective too.    Hopefully, he'll pull a rabit out his hat and come up with Rodon.   The funny thing is, some people on here wouldn't be happy with a Rodon signing!

Edited December 8, 2022 by RZNJ

[interloper]

New Elias quote re: long-term pitching deals.

Reading between the lines, this would seem to indicate he believes that in 2024 the team will be even better, therefore it makes better sense to him to take advantage of the "best year" of a pitching contract at that time rather than now. I have no doubt this quote will be eaten alive here. I take his word for it on the first year typically being the best - I assume they've got the data to back that up. Not sure I agree with the reasoning, but it checks out with his other comments about "building the business" and doing this in a step-by-step manner over a series of off-seasons based on his view of this core continuing to improve over the next 2 years or so. 

This indicates to me Rodon is absolutely out, as well as Bassitt. 

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by interloper

[RZNJ]

Sounds a little like paralysis by analysis there!

[waroriole]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

New Elias quote re: long-term pitching deals.

Reading between the lines, this would seem to indicate he believes that in 2024 the team will be even better, therefore it makes better sense to him to take advantage of the "best year" of a pitching contract at that time rather than now. I have no doubt this quote will be eaten alive here. I take his word for it on the first year typically being the best - I assume they've got the data to back that up. Not sure I agree with the reasoning, but it checks out with his other comments about "building the business" and doing this in a step-by-step manner over a series of off-seasons based on his view of this core continuing to improve over the next 2 years or so. 

This indicates to me Rodon is absolutely out, as well as Bassitt. 

 

Ugh new excuses every year. Pitching gets more expensive every year too. We could’ve signed Stroman last year to what would be a reasonable deal this year. Next year they’re gonna be surprised that pitching costs so much. 

[Roll Tide]

26 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ok.  If it was so clear, maybe you can tell us what that plan was?

I suspect Elias was going to do what he said and add a good SP and 2 bats. A salary of $100 million would still be in the top of bottom third. 
 

Let’s say you added Tallion $17 per, Benintendi $17 per , and Correa $30 per. That 64 million ….you could trade Santander 7.5 million, Hays 2.5 million. That would leave your payroll in the 90s. You then still have the luxury to trade some pieces. 
 

Remember $30 million of what you get this year is a payout from the Disney deal. So even if you highball and say 100 million the net is only $70 million which is a high $20 million ish difference.

Save the $10 million you gave Gibson ….do a deal for Lopez. Maybe even deal some players/prospects for Reynolds. And deal Mullins.
 

You’ve repaired the OBP issue substantially and upgraded the rotation. We have a much better chance IMO.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Roll Tide

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, interloper said:

New Elias quote re: long-term pitching deals.

Reading between the lines, this would seem to indicate he believes that in 2024 the team will be even better, therefore it makes better sense to him to take advantage of the "best year" of a pitching contract at that time rather than now. I have no doubt this quote will be eaten alive here. I take his word for it on the first year typically being the best - I assume they've got the data to back that up. Not sure I agree with the reasoning, but it checks out with his other comments about "building the business" and doing this in a step-by-step manner over a series of off-seasons based on his view of this core continuing to improve over the next 2 years or so. 

This indicates to me Rodon is absolutely out, as well as Bassitt. 

 

The thing is, a guy you get this offseason, his year two might be better than the year one of a guy you can get next year.

Now I haven't looked into who might be out there next year and I'm sure Mike has but you can't just assume the perfect fit is going to be there for you.

 

I'm also not sure at all that he's right about the year one thing for free agent pitchers.  I've never seen anyone doing any analysis on the topic but I think pitching is more random than that.

[interloper]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Sounds a little like paralysis by analysis there!

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

The thing is, a guy you get this offseason, his year two might be better than the year one of a guy you can get next year.

Now I haven't looked into who might be out there next year and I'm sure Mike has but you can't just assume the perfect fit is going to be there for you.

 

I'm also not sure at all that he's right about the year one thing for free agent pitchers.  I've never seen anyone doing any analysis on the topic but I think pitching is more random than that.

Yeah this level of risk aversion comes off a little extreme. On the one hand, he's confirmed to have talked to Boras clients and put in multi-year offers to pitchers. On the other hand, we have quotes like this that point to an extreme level of caution. He did say their approach is careful and deliberate. 

It seems like he really wants to confirm that, yes, this core of players is for real and improving before he makes sizeable moves. Maybe he's got his eye on the deadline more than this offseason, I don't know. 

It's hard to reconcile their apparent aggressiveness at the Winter Meetings with quotes like this. Based on the info we have, I'd expect a Syndergaard or similar type pitcher on a 1-2 year deal. And if the team is cooking come July, maybe we pull the trigger on a big trade. 

[Frobby]

43 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Connolly did the correction interview right? So this one I assume is questioning the correction. I think John Angelos pulled back the budget on Elias. To not throw the Angelos family under the bus he covered for them with the I was misunderstood thing. Since Elias is pretty clear about the plan before that I think it’s fair to assume that is what happened. 

I don’t.  But I’m not into making assumptions.  

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I suspect Elias was going to do what he said and add a good SP and 2 bats. A salary of $100 million would still be in the top of bottom third. 
 

Let’s say you added Tallion $17 per, Benintendi $17 per , and Correa $30 per. That 64 million …. trade Santanderyou 7could .5 million, Hays 2.5 million. That would leave your payroll in the 90s. You then still have the luxury to trade some pieces. 

Remember $30 million of what you get this year is a payout from the Disney deal. So even if you highball and say 100 million the net is only $70 million which is a high $20 million ish difference.

Save the $10 million you gave Gibson ….do a deal for Lopez. Maybe even deal some players/prospects for Reynolds. And deal Mullins.
 

You’ve repaired the OBP issue substantially and upgraded the rotation. We have a much better chance IMO.

You said it was clear.  But even your plan which is the plan you suspect he had that was so clear didn't really add 2 bats.   You added Benintendi and Correa and subtracted Santander and Hays.    That's a net gain of ZERO.    That is/was YOUR plan.

Elias said a pitcher and two bats.   He never got specific about what type of bats and what type of pitcher until fairly recently when he said a #1-#3 pitcher, and a bat that would be on the level of Hays/Santander/Mullins.   Benintendi would certainly qualify as that type of bat.  But Elias is only talking about adding, not subtracting.

Bottom line.  You are suspecting, speculating, guessing at what he meant when he said one pitcher and two bats.   It's not so much what he said but what you wanted.

[tabletop]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

New Elias quote re: long-term pitching deals.

Reading between the lines, this would seem to indicate he believes that in 2024 the team will be even better, therefore it makes better sense to him to take advantage of the "best year" of a pitching contract at that time rather than now. I have no doubt this quote will be eaten alive here. I take his word for it on the first year typically being the best - I assume they've got the data to back that up. Not sure I agree with the reasoning, but it checks out with his other comments about "building the business" and doing this in a step-by-step manner over a series of off-seasons based on his view of this core continuing to improve over the next 2 years or so. 

This indicates to me Rodon is absolutely out, as well as Bassitt. 

 

Someone needs to get him away from microphones at this point.

[jcaponio]

Does Bo Porter have any ties to Elias/Sig from his time in Houston? He’s on MLB tonight saying that the Orioles are the best fit for Correa land that Baltimore is his pick for the team that will make the biggest splash before the end of the calendar year. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

New Elias quote re: long-term pitching deals.

Reading between the lines, this would seem to indicate he believes that in 2024 the team will be even better, therefore it makes better sense to him to take advantage of the "best year" of a pitching contract at that time rather than now. I have no doubt this quote will be eaten alive here. I take his word for it on the first year typically being the best - I assume they've got the data to back that up. Not sure I agree with the reasoning, but it checks out with his other comments about "building the business" and doing this in a step-by-step manner over a series of off-seasons based on his view of this core continuing to improve over the next 2 years or so. 

This indicates to me Rodon is absolutely out, as well as Bassitt. 

 

Holy crap, these excuses are getting wild  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Holy crap, these excuses are getting wild  

I'd love to see the actual numbers on if year 1 is more valuable but that's a lot more work than I'm willing to put in.

[tabletop]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd love to see the actual numbers on if year 1 is more valuable but that's a lot more work than I'm willing to put in.

Not sure about the rest of the league but the last few the O's gave out have not worked out that way.

Wei-Yin Chen's best 2 seasons were his 3rd and 4th season
Ubaldo's best was his 2nd season
Cobb's best season over his contract was his 4th season (with the Angels). Statistically his 3rd year was his best in Baltimore but it was only over 52.1 innings. His first was the only time he threw a full season and even that was only 152.1.

Small sample obviously but it doesn't ring true in terms of long term free agent pitching deals given out by the O's.


 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

You said it was clear.  But even your plan which is the plan you suspect he had that was so clear didn't really add 2 bats.   You added Benintendi and Correa and subtracted Santander and Hays.    That's a net gain of ZERO.    That is/was YOUR plan.

Elias said a pitcher and two bats.   He never got specific about what type of bats and what type of pitcher until fairly recently when he said a #1-#3 pitcher, and a bat that would be on the level of Hays/Santander/Mullins.   Benintendi would certainly qualify as that type of bat.  But Elias is only talking about adding, not subtracting.

Bottom line.  You are suspecting, speculating, guessing at what he meant when he said one pitcher and two bats.   It's not so much what he said but what you wanted.

Net zero gain ….LMAO! 
 

Switching those 2 for 2 …..there is a net of 115 points of OBP and 4.2 WAR