FA starting pitchers remaining as of 12/7

[Aristotelian]

23 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

At some point (if it hasn't happened already), they are going to need to turn to the trade market.  These are all of the SP projected to be worth 2.5+ fWAR next year (by Steamer) than I think could be even potentially available:

1. Burnes (MIL): 4.9
2. Rodon (FA): 4.7
3. Bieber (CLE): 3.7
4. Woodruff (MIL): 3.7
5. Lodolo (CIN): 3.7
6. Greene (CIN): 3.2
7. Singer (KC): 3.1
8. Gallen (ARI): 3.0
9. Lopez (MIA): 2.8
10. Bassit (FA): 2.5

This excludes SP on contending teams (and TEX, CHW, SF and Alcantara, depending on if you consider those teams contenders, as they are nonetheless unlikely to be available).

The other free agents are below 2.5: Eovaldi 2.4, Manaea 1.9, Kluber 1.7, Stripling 1.5, Wacha 1.5, Syndergaard 1.4.

IMO, they're better off overpaying for Bassit or Eovaldi if they don't think they can land any of the pitchers on that list above.  The QO may help keep their contracts in check. 

If not, MIL and CLE have said they are not looking to move their guys, so unless that's posturing or otherwise changes, it really comes down to whether you can pry one of those young/controllable SP from CIN/KC/ARI.  The cost would be very high, but we have the farm to do it and likely the desire given these pitchers fill a need and are cheap/controllable.  That said, it takes two to tango.

And of course there is Pablo Lopez - looking at the list this way, it's no surprise that is the only name that comes up again and again when thinking about trade options.

I did a similar exercise and came up with a few other names, although they might come in slightly under 2.5 WAR: Merrill Kelly (ARI, 2.1), Stroman (CHC, 2.3), Snell (SD, 3.1). And of course, the big dog is Ohtani. 

I can't see CIN moving Lodolo and Greene so soon, they are both 2028 FA's. 

Here is my list with their Trade Simulator value estimates. 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

6 hours ago, RVAOsFan said:

Does the Mets Quintana signing take them off the board for Rodon? Yankees are probably off the board after signing Judge.  If we are in on Rodon who is our main competition?

I would think SF is still in on Rodon.  Dodgers of course have money if they want to sign him.  Maybe Red Sox because their rotation is really shaky.

[bpilktree]

Mets are apparently looking at one more starter and Stripling name was mentioned.  If they add another pitcher I would be on phone about acquiring Peterson.   

[Three Run Homer]

10 hours ago, geschinger said:

The approach Elias is taking - if successful - doesn't have the limitation of short windows.  If they can't be signed to an extension, next man up.  If the talent pipeline is working, that doesn't preclude competing.  The Astros didn't have a window that closed when George Springer, Carlos Correa etc... departed.  Why would it for the Orioles if Elias is successful implementing a similar approach?

So far Elias has had the benefit of high draft picks.  It's unlikely we'll have a new crop of young players this strong in 3-4 years.   The time is now, the place is now.    

[RZNJ]

27 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

So far Elias has had the benefit of high draft picks.  It's unlikely we'll have a new crop of young players this strong in 3-4 years.   The time is now, the place is now.    

Just as the high top 5 type picks dry up, the Latin Program is up to speed.  I am fairly confident the system will continue to produce even without the high draft position.   Last years draft looks promising beyond Holliday, where Beavers, Wagner, and Fabian were done straight up.  The idea is not to be panicked into the idea that we have a 3-4 year window.  Having said that there's no reason they shouldn't be aggressive and add to this team now.

[Just Regular]

The Tigers sell of Joe Jimenez is an indicator to me new GM Scott Harris is out on 2023, as Skubal, Mize, Manning and Turnbull nurse their way back from injuries, and Miggy gets to do whatever he wants to do.    I wasn't sure what to make of the Matthew Boyd acquistion, but this helps clarify it as a possible move for rehab and flip.

I think Eduardo Rodriguez becomes a Pablo Lopez-adjacent trade possibility this winter.    I believe the thing about the $15mm type pitcher is you can just refresh them each offseason.    If you are out on any given season, sell your Present Wins for Future Wins, at least among guys who no longer have any forecast Surplus Value worth caring about.

After losing Candelario, DET one of the nicest fits I think for Ramon Urias, so I'll hope for a Ramon Urias for Eduardo Rodriguez trade.     Eduardo for me about same as a Eovaldi-Manaea, compared to remaining FA as of today.    He has 4/63 left on his current contract.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The Tigers sell of Joe Jimenez is an indicator to me new GM Scott Harris is out on 2023, as Skubal, Mize, Manning and Turnbull nurse their way back from injuries, and Miggy gets to do whatever he wants to do.    I wasn't sure what to make of the Matthew Boyd acquistion, but this helps clarify it as a possible move for rehab and flip.

I think Eduardo Rodriguez becomes a Pablo Lopez-adjacent trade possibility this winter.    I believe the thing about the $15mm type pitcher is you can just refresh them each offseason.    If you are out on any given season, sell your Present Wins for Future Wins, at least among guys who no longer have any forecast Surplus Value worth caring about.

After losing Candelario, DET one of the nicest fits I think for Ramon Urias, so I'll hope for a Ramon Urias for Eduardo Rodriguez trade.     Eduardo for me about same as a Eovaldi-Manaea, compared to remaining FA as of today.    He has 4/63 left on his current contract.

Interesting thought. Could see Det unloading him although I would think they would want more long term pieces.

Otoh, no one is going to give them real talent for ERod, coming off the year he did, so they may not have much of an option there.

[OriolesMagic83]

Looking like if there are any more additions to the starting pitching, it will be by trade.  I was hoping for someone like Bassitt being added from free agents, but looks like Elias doesn't want to pay market rates.  I hope we don't have a repeat of 2012-2016 teams when DD/ownership didn't add substantially to good teams that could have made it to the next level with the right additions. 

[interloper]

Assuming we are out on any big names, just give me Manaea/Syndergaard, Belt, and a backup catcher and let's ride.

Supplement the team at the deadline if they're playing well.

Debut Grayson and Cowser.

I can only grind my teeth about not having a splash signing for so long. At a certain point I just have to accept their off-season plan and look forward to baseball.

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by interloper

[Frobby]

Senga, Quintana, Manaea off the board, so I’ve updated the OP.   We’re down to about 8 SP with any significant track record.   Only 3-4 of them are clearly better than Gibson.  

[eddie83]

Bassitt is off. 

[HakunaSakata]

 

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Bassitt is off. 

I'm absolutely gutted. There's no excuse for this team not finding a way to make this happen if he was willing to take three years. This "willing to spend" front seems like it was nothing more than a marketing ploy and we all fell for it hook, line and sinker. 

Edited December 12, 2022 by HakunaSakata

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, HakunaSakata said:

 

I'm absolutely gutted. There's no excuse for this team not finding a way to make this happen if he was willing to take three years. This "willing to spend" front seems like it was nothing more than a marketing ploy and we all fell for it hook, line and sinker. 

 

[deward]

So much for all the free agent pitchers knocking down the doors to pitch in NuCamden.

[G54377]

No excuse, unless we pull a rabbit out of the hat with Rodon.