Connolly: Don’t see the Os going beyond 2-3 years

[Sports Guy]

Not sure, at the age of 35, we should be looking at what he did his first 4 years.

I think the most relevant years are 2019 And especially 2021 and 2022.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Not sure, at the age of 35, we should be looking at what he did his first 4 years.

I think the most relevant years are 2019 And especially 2021 and 2022.

I was looking at his last 4 full years.   Both systems had him at or above 3 WAR in 2021.    Not so good in 2022.

Edited December 8, 2022 by RZNJ

[Roll Tide]

Connolly’s latest 

 

 

[theobird]

17 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree to a point. Like I said, I'd like to see a pivot. But then again I am seeing these contracts, and, knowing that we would have to pay 10% more, there is not one where I am like, "I wish we did a wow offer to get that guy."

All the stuff you say is true, but it is built into a system with no salary cap and massive discrepancies between markets. Open market bidding wars are not our comparative advantage.

Anyway, I for one love to root for a home grown team of up and coming stars like we had in '83 and '89 when I came of age with the game. That's what I see us getting back to and it's pretty cool.

Also it is still early. Lots of guys still in the board. Sounds like we are still in on some guys but they may be targeted value plays like Conforto or Wacha types. Maybe that is not good enough for the fans but if we could get a couple wins from FA's, and say 6 wins from Grayson, Gunnar, and Cowser/Hall/Means, that's probably good enough for a wild card and maybe more, without doing anything to risk the future.

That’s an excellent post, and it’s probably the only rational thing to do. I would be happy with Wacha and Conforto to be honest. I have always like Wacha and Conforto has a big upside to him without betting your financial future on it. I am not at all for trading away the prospects at this point. I would be ok with some smart trades of guys like Urias, Mateo and Hays, but that is only because I see a better upside to the replacements on hand in our “pipeline”.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, orioles119 said:

Rehashed topics or vibes to posts that are done ad nauseum.  They are beating - a dead horse.

The first time that I expressed anything like this here was this week. I think you may have me confused with someone else.

[RZNJ]

I certainly do think there is some pressure on Elias, at the very least, to bring in a pitcher, one way or the other, that people will see as a strong #2-#3 pitcher.   Those were/are my expectations based on what he's said.    I never expected Rodon or one of the SS.

But it's way too early to make a final judgement.    In fact, it's silly.

Edited December 8, 2022 by RZNJ

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RZNJ said:

I certainly do think there is some pressure on Elias, at the very least, to bring in a pitcher, one way or the other, that people will see as a strong #2-#3 pitcher.   Those were/are my expectations based on what he's said.    I never expected Rodon or one of the SS.

Who do you think is exerting pressure?

[orioles119]

13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The first time that I expressed anything like this here was this week. I think you may have me confused with someone else.

It's not directed at you.  It's an argument that's heard every off-season that the Orioles don't spend like some think they should.  As far as I'm concerned,  Connolly should also look at the calendar and realize it's only December 8th as well.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Who do you think is exerting pressure?

I think he put pressure on himself by basically saying he planned on getting a pitcher who would be a #1-#3 type of pitcher.    I don't think you/he can sell Gibson as that.    I don't think Elias is going to be influenced by the fans or media too much but the fact that the media/fans have certain expectations based on what he/Elias said, I do think he feels some pressure to come through.   And, I think he will.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I think he put pressure on himself by basically saying he planned on getting a pitcher who would be a #1-#3 type of pitcher.    I don't think you/he can sell Gibson as that.    I don't think Elias is going to be influenced by the fans or media too much but the fact that the media/fans have certain expectations based on what he/Elias said, I do think he feels some pressure to come through.   And, I think he will.

Ahh OK, self-induced pressure. 

Yea I can see that.

I don't see ownership or media exerting much pressure and the fans don't really have much of a lever to work with.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, orioles119 said:

It's not directed at you.  It's an argument that's heard every off-season that the Orioles don't spend like some think they should.  As far as I'm concerned,  Connolly should also look at the calendar and realize it's only December 8th as well.

Well my criticism was directed at the lack of activity during the Winter meetings and leading up of this off-season based on what I thought I understood as Elias’ message.

I don’t agree on Connolly. He is a member of the media and should offer a critique when warranted. He doesn’t work for the Orioles so I think his criticism is fair. In every town there has to be members of the media who hold the professional sports teams feet over the fire when warranted. Otherwise, he should go work for MASN.

[bobmc]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Ahh OK, self-induced pressure. 

Yea I can see that.

I don't see ownership or media exerting much pressure and the fans don't really have much of a lever to work with.

So you don’t consider yourself, SG, RT, @Tony-OH pressure?  I do!  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, bobmc said:

So you don’t consider yourself, SG, RT, @Tony-OH pressure?  I do!  

My presence on Reddit may be why he hasn't done a second AMA.

[bobmc]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

My presence on Reddit may be why he hasn't done a second AMA.

Awesome!  But #TrueConfessions , I had to Google AMA  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

According to Fangraphs, in his last 4 full seasons, Gibson was worth 2.6 (2018), 2.6 (2019), 3.0 (2021), and 1.8 (2022).

According to BR he was 3.5 (2018), .3 (2019), 3.5 (2021, and .7 (2022)

 

We can play with numbers and make them slant towards what we want them to say.    According to Fangraphs he's been a pretty consistent 2-3 win pitcher.    According to BREF he's been wildly inconsistent with two 3 WIN years and 2 below 1.    If I wanted to pump up Gibson, I'd certainly say he's capable of a 3 win year when looking at either system of counting.

No one is "playing" with anything, I was specifically referring to the graphic of two year WAR totals for free agent SPs that was posted a page or two ago that Roll Tide was expressing incredulity towards.