Orioles sign Adam Frazier

[LTO's]

43 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Completely agree, which is why I thought JDM was a really good fit for us. Even in his "down year" last year, he still pummeled lefties to the tune of a 1.000+ OPS.

He wanted to be in LA and took a discount to be there for sure. Same with Thor turning down other deals to play there. Brantley was probably just biding his time until Houston gave him the number he was looking for. I doubt Rodon even considered another team besides NY for most of his free agency. According to most of the reporters, he made it known he wanted to be a Yankee. It's ok to be frustrated as an Orioles fan wanting to see moves be made but a bunch of these guys were never really options. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

16 minutes ago, LTO's said:

He wanted to be in LA and took a discount to be there for sure. Same with Thor turning down other deals to play there. Brantley was probably just biding his time until Houston gave him the number he was looking for. I doubt Rodon even considered another team besides NY for most of his free agency. According to most of the reporters, he made it known he wanted to be a Yankee. It's ok to be frustrated as an Orioles fan wanting to see moves be made but a bunch of these guys were never really options. 

Maybe, but money can potentially change a man's mind.

[Frobby]

Here’s an interesting article that discusses players who don’t hit the ball hard, such as Steven Kwan, who fell in the bottom 1% in EV, Hard Hit % and Barrel % last year.   The article gives various splits to explain the success of various low EV hitters, but honestly I’m not sure I understand all the splits and certainly don’t know where to find them for a guy like Frazier.  By the way, Terrin Vavra is mentioned in the article: 

“Over a short sample, players with a high EV on non-hard-hit balls tend to do better. However, when we increase the number of balls in play required to be in the sample, what tiny correlation there is turns negative. Players who max out with medium-hit balls don’t do well over the long-term. That kind of ball can fall in for a single, but it requires batted ball luck, which evens out over time. No matter the sample size, the correlation between a player’s medium-hit rate as a rookie and as a veteran is .31, much weaker than hard-hit rate. If reaching base that way is a repeatable skill, the only current players who really seem to possess it are Arraez and Kemp. 

“Among this year’s rookie crop, Kwan seems like the best candidate to join that club, along with Baltimore’s Terrin Vavra. Vavra had a non-hard-hit EV of 83.5 mph and a wRC+ of 97, despite a hard-hit rate of just 23.6%. However, if Kwan and Vavra don’t increase their overall power, they’ll always be more dependent than most players on batted ball luck. Kwan’s wOBACON was 37 points higher than his xwOBACON, the 17th-highest difference in the league, so he could be due for a visit from the regression monster. As for Robles and Perdomo, it might be time to leave them to the cruel hands of fate.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/steven-kwan-geraldo-perdomo-and-the-victor-robles-problem/

 

 

 

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

He wanted to be in LA and took a discount to be there for sure. Same with Thor turning down other deals to play there. Brantley was probably just biding his time until Houston gave him the number he was looking for. I doubt Rodon even considered another team besides NY for most of his free agency. According to most of the reporters, he made it known he wanted to be a Yankee. It's ok to be frustrated as an Orioles fan wanting to see moves be made but a bunch of these guys were never really options. 

This is the issue with one year deals. 

[Jammer7]

40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s an interesting article that discusses players who don’t hit the ball hard, such as Steven Kwan, who fell in the bottom 1% in EV, Hard Hit % and Barrel % last year.   The article gives various splits to explain the success of various low EV hitters, but honestly I’m not sure I understand all the splits and certainly don’t know where to find them for a guy like Frazier.  By the way, Terrin Vavra is mentioned in the article: 

“Over a short sample, players with a high EV on non-hard-hit balls tend to do better. However, when we increase the number of balls in play required to be in the sample, what tiny correlation there is turns negative. Players who max out with medium-hit balls don’t do well over the long-term. That kind of ball can fall in for a single, but it requires batted ball luck, which evens out over time. No matter the sample size, the correlation between a player’s medium-hit rate as a rookie and as a veteran is .31, much weaker than hard-hit rate. If reaching base that way is a repeatable skill, the only current players who really seem to possess it are Arraez and Kemp. 

“Among this year’s rookie crop, Kwan seems like the best candidate to join that club, along with Baltimore’s Terrin Vavra. Vavra had a non-hard-hit EV of 83.5 mph and a wRC+ of 97, despite a hard-hit rate of just 23.6%. However, if Kwan and Vavra don’t increase their overall power, they’ll always be more dependent than most players on batted ball luck. Kwan’s wOBACON was 37 points higher than his xwOBACON, the 17th-highest difference in the league, so he could be due for a visit from the regression monster. As for Robles and Perdomo, it might be time to leave them to the cruel hands of fate.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/steven-kwan-geraldo-perdomo-and-the-victor-robles-problem/

 

 

 

A great piece. A lot of interesting data. It makes me wonder, what were the EV’s of Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew, Pete Rose or Ichiro? They could hit the ball harder and hit home runs if they wanted to. They found success with weaker frequent contact. And these are just a few examples. I get that the game has changed. I wonder if the shift rules will help these kinds of guys some.

To the point of the article, it makes me think the Orioles must strongly believe Frazier can increase his EV. I listened to him speak about syncing his upper and lower half and getting more from the ground up. That makes sense to me. Does he go away from his recent mechanics, which has no step, not even a toe tap? He gets nothing out of his lower half right now. Maybe he gets more upright, a bit more of a step. Something to reconnect and regain his rhythm in the box. He talked about looking for pitches he can hit well, instead of trying to cover the whole plate. That makes sense to me. I’m not saying it will happen, but it could. His contact rate and low swing and miss rate make me more optimistic than most here.

This off season is a bit disappointing, so far, based on Elias’ regrettable “Lift Off” comments and what I interpreted that to mean. Perhaps there is a trade coming before Spring Training. Maybe not until the deadline. He obviously doesn’t have real lift-off money to spend.

 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

“Over a short sample, players with a high EV on non-hard-hit balls tend to do better. However, when we increase the number of balls in play required to be in the sample, what tiny correlation there is turns negative.

This bit of it - its probably been 25 years since I read Whitey Herzog's book, but he had a story about training Willie McGee and Vince Coleman to just try and ping it over the infielder's heads.      Basically same reason why Willie Mays Hayes had to do pushups every time he hit a flyball in the movies.     Frazier slow obviously, but that's how he chips in with the bat.

The way I interpret it for little guys is - its almost better to bloop it than hit it medium.     

Happened to see him doing a segment with Harold Reynolds just now, and two tidbits of trivia there:

-he and Brandon Woodruff were MSU teammates in the SEC, Frazier called him something like his "little big brother"

-we've had interleague for ~18/162 for a long time (now going to ~45), but player friendly Harold did run out the old trope like "how was learning the pitchers in the new league?"

[Tony-OH]

19 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

All I will say further is, let’s let it play out. I do not think this is some kind of great sign. It has potential to go either way. And the veteranosity gained 31 games in the win column and helped Mateo become an excellent defensive SS. But whatever, you see it differently. Carry on.

Wait, so you believe the team was 31 games better because of the veteranosity of Odor who was worth -.4 rWAR and he personally made Mateo an excellent defensive SS? 

Damn, we should resign Odor to the $8 million contract if he was really worth 31 wins with his Veteranosity. 

Personally, I think it was addition of Rutschman and Gunnar to a lesser extend, the improved starting pitching, the improved bullpen, and the ability of Santander to play healthy most of the year that led to the 31 game improvement more that -0.4 dWAR veteranosity guy, but feel free to believe what you want. 

 

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Why do people say "no offense"?   You know what follows that is going to be offensive.   

To soften the blow??? Trying to be nicer then just blasting them?

It's kinda like when you counsel someone and you start off with something good before then giving them the bad news.

 

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

To soften the blow??? Trying to be nicer then just blasting them?

It's kinda like when you counsel someone and you start off with something good before then giving them the bad news.

 

 

 

 

[Sanfran327]

Can someone rename this thread (or just add to it parenthetically) "OH 2022 - 23 Off-season Group Therapy Thread"

[Jammer7]

58 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Wait, so you believe the team was 31 games better because of the veteranosity of Odor who was worth -.4 rWAR and he personally made Mateo an excellent defensive SS? 

Damn, we should resign Odor to the $8 million contract if he was really worth 31 wins with his Veteranosity. 

Personally, I think it was addition of Rutschman and Gunnar to a lesser extend, the improved starting pitching, the improved bullpen, and the ability of Santander to play healthy most of the year that led to the 31 game improvement more that -0.4 dWAR veteranosity guy, but feel free to believe what you want. 

 

That’s not what I meant. We have beaten this to death, no? Rutschman is the bigger factor, yes. Those veterans you mentioned, not just Roughned Odor, did have a bigger impact than most fans think. You’re a baseball guy, you know there is something to that. Or maybe you don’t. Brandon Hyde and many others do. Most baseball guys know there is value to a veteran providing leadership in areas like preparation and other subtle areas like how to compete every day. To hold players accountable and have the street cred for others to respect them and listen. There is a lot that goes into the development of a winning culture.

As I said, I am not sure what to make of the Frazier signing. It may work out, it may not. You guys pointed out all of the negative aspects of this. I pointed out how it might just surprise us. Yet, you seem really intent on picking an argument that has already been beaten to death with various insults flying because someone disagrees with you? I don’t care if you call me a fluffer, fan boy or even Elias’ executive ball washer. If it makes you feel better, I’m here for you. 

Let me ask you this, Oh Great Swami. What kind of batting line and production would it take for you to call the Frazier signing a successful signing? Would his 2019 line of .278/.336/.417/.753 be good enough for your stamp of approval? I mean, what more could you hope for on a 1 year deal for $8 million?

I did a little film work on him myself. I don’t like the lower half at all. He needs to work there. He talked about that and his approach. He talked specifically about syncing up the lower and upper halves. I am curious what mechanical things they might incorporate to get his rhythm back. He talked about needing to look for more pitches he can hit harder, instead of entire plate coverage.

I know you think Elias made a terrible move here. You basically call him an idiot by expressing your incredulity at how bad this is. Mike Elias is not an idiot. They know things you do not. That is why they have that job. You’re a knowledgeable fan with a great long-term website. You’ve done some legit associate scouting and you have a different philosophy. They have different ways of improving this team. I happen to think they have done a good job, so far. There is a lot left to prove, of course. I think their moves are telling that they do not believe some of their infield prospects are quite ready yet to contribute to improving on last year’s team.

They sign Adam Frazier, who in a best case, is similar to Odor in some ways, with an average offensive output. He was what they want Vavra to be just a short time ago. That would be a great improvement. That’s about what $8 million buys it seems. And it’s a one year deal, so you do not block prospects long-term.

I do get all of the venom over this. I have stayed out of this mostly. It is a questionable move at first blush. If you believe the coaches can help him regain his better days, then perhaps it isn’t what you wanted with the lift off comments, but maybe it isn’t such a terrible move after all.

A full year of Adley and Gunnar makes us considerably better. Will the pitching improve, or will some regression happen to Kremer, Wells, Bradish, Voth, Akin, Perez and Bautista? Does Mateo improve with his production? Does Santander improve his mobility, and keep improving his swing decisions? Is Hays the guy in the first or second halves? Is Mountcastle their 1B and MOO hitter long-term? Is Ced more the guy in 2022 than in 2021? Is Stowers going to have an opportunity to get regular at bats? Vavra? These are all bigger questions to me than “why Adam Frazier.”

From what I see, Frazier is an average 2B. He was always better than that. I wonder if he was playing through an injury last year. There are several reasons that San Diego and Seattle have traded for him. Two playoff teams wanted him recently. I guess they are crazy too. 

There is still a lot of time before Spring Training.  We’ll see what else happens. Enjoy the holidays, big guy. 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Jammer7

[Sports Guy]

I really don’t think there is anything Frazier could do in 2023 that would make me happy with this signing.

[owknows]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I really don’t think there is anything Frazier could do in 2023 that would make me happy with this signing.

I'd be willing to overlook this horrible deal and pretend I was on board all along if he went full Ohtani and gave me 10 WAR (5 from each side).

Anything short and he's a bum.

[Tony-OH]

39 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

That’s not what I meant. We have beaten this to death, no? Rutschman is the bigger factor, yes. Those veterans you mentioned, not just Roughned Odor, did have a bigger impact than most fans think. You’re a baseball guy, you know there is something to that. Or maybe you don’t. Brandon Hyde and many others do. Most baseball guys know there is value to a veteran providing leadership in areas like preparation and other subtle areas like how to compete every day. To hold players accountable and have the street cred for others to respect them and listen. There is a lot that goes into the development of a winning culture.

As I said, I am not sure what to make of the Frazier signing. It may work out, it may not. You guys pointed out all of the negative aspects of this. I pointed out how it might just surprise us. Yet, you seem really intent on picking an argument that has already been beaten to death with various insults flying because someone disagrees with you? I don’t care if you call me a fluffer, fan boy or even Elias’ executive ball washer. If it makes you feel better, I’m here for you. 

Let me ask you this, Oh Great Swami. What kind of batting line and production would it take for you to call the Frazier signing a successful signing? Would his 2019 line of .278/.336/.417/.753 be good enough for your stamp of approval? I mean, what more could you hope for on a 1 year deal for $8 million?

I did a little film work on him myself. I don’t like the lower half at all. He needs to work there. He talked about that and his approach. He talked specifically about syncing up the lower and upper halves. I am curious what mechanical things they might incorporate to get his rhythm back. He talked about needing to look for more pitches he can hit harder, instead of entire plate coverage.

I know you think Elias made a terrible move here. You basically call him an idiot by expressing your incredulity at how bad this is. Mike Elias is not an idiot. They know things you do not. That is why they have that job. You’re a knowledgeable fan with a great long-term website. You’ve done some legit associate scouting and you have a different philosophy. They have different ways of improving this team. I happen to think they have done a good job, so far. There is a lot left to prove, of course. I think their moves are telling that they do not believe some of their infield prospects are quite ready yet to contribute to improving on last year’s team.

They sign Adam Frazier, who in a best case, is similar to Odor in some ways, with an average offensive output. He was what they want Vavra to be just a short time ago. That would be a great improvement. That’s about what $8 million buys it seems. And it’s a one year deal, so you do not block prospects long-term.

I do get all of the venom over this. I have stayed out of this mostly. It is a questionable move at first blush. If you believe the coaches can help him regain his better days, then perhaps it isn’t what you wanted with the lift off comments, but maybe it isn’t such a terrible move after all.

A full year of Adley and Gunnar makes us considerably better. Will the pitching improve, or will some regression happen to Kremer, Wells, Bradish, Voth, Akin, Perez and Bautista? Does Mateo improve with his production? Does Santander improve his mobility, and keep improving his swing decisions? Is Hays the guy in the first or second halves? Is Mountcastle their 1B and MOO hitter long-term? Is Ced more the guy in 2022 than in 2021? Is Stowers going to have an opportunity to get regular at bats? Vavra? These are all bigger questions to me than “why Adam Frazier.”

From what I see, Frazier is an average 2B. He was always better than that. I wonder if he was playing through an injury last year. There are several reasons that San Diego and Seattle have traded for him. Two playoff teams wanted him recently. I guess they are crazy too. 

There is still a lot of time before Spring Training.  We’ll see what else happens. Enjoy the holidays, big guy. 

Damn, that's a lot to digest! lol

First off, don't take things so personally. I can vehemently disagree with your take, and may even think you and few others are "fill in the blank for whatever term means you are a super duper Elias supporter to the point you think he does no wrong," but that doesn't mean I think less of you as a person or question your knowledge of the game.

Now that we got that out of the way, let me start with you comment that because I think this move is unnecessary, ridiculous, and certainly not worth anywhere close to the money he spent, does not mean I think Elias is an idiot. See, when you say that, you lose all credibility because I know you've read me say many times, including in this thread all the things I think Elias does well.

I've made my concerns quite clear why I think this move is insane for this team at this juncture. I've also made it quite clear that none of us know whether Elias can take that farm system and team on the cusp of contending and get it over he finishing line because has not done so. 

His answers last year when the team was contending was to trade two of his players (Absolutely the right thing to do) and then add Brett Phillips and Jesse Aguilar down the stretch while also playing a below replacement level second baseman almost every day. 

As for Veteranosity, I do think players can help others during a year, but I don't think a player plays completely different or significantly improves just because of a presence of another. I think Odor probably a fantastic clubhouse guy and he clearly is a great teammate, but give me 1 WAR second baseman who is an average teammate and I bet the team would have been better. 

We hear was a great clubhouse, and that's nice, but guess what, winning teams (Minus out the A's and Yankees in the 70s and early 80's under Billy Martin) tend to get along because winning is fun. I think the manager has something to do with that environment as well. Personally, the Orioles very well have made the playoffs last year if Elias would not have kept Odor and Chirinos on the team all year and replaced them with 1 WAR players (So below average starter (2.0 WAR) level).

I'll be honest, I think last year was a complete throw away year for Elias but when the team was surprisingly still in it late in August, he acquired a washed up DH while still playing Odor. 

You said you think they've done a good job here, and I'm pointing out the players they choose to go with last year when still in a playoff chase were bad choices to prove my point that they have failed at times. All I'm saying until they don't, that's an unknown area.

As for them having the job and I don't, and they have more information then I do, and I'm just guy with a website, you're right. But this place would be pretty boring if all we did around was say, "Well, they must know more than us so let's shut up and just wait and see what happens!"

So I'm going to continue to agree when agree with moves and disagree (with statistics and facts) when I don't, and you can keep on thinking Elias does know wrong because he has the job and most know things that makes the Frazier signing make sense. 

Of course, they are just like the things they must've known about Odor, Chirinos, Phillips and Aguilar being big helps despite all the stats telling him not to do so. But I guess those failures don't count.

 

 

[Jammer7]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Damn, that's a lot to digest! lol

First off, don't take things so personally. I can vehemently disagree with your take, and may even think you and few others are "fill in the blank for whatever term means you are a super duper Elias supporter to the point you think he does no wrong," but that doesn't mean I think less of you as a person or question your knowledge of the game.

Now that we got that out of the way, let me start with you comment that because I think this move is unnecessary, ridiculous, and certainly not worth anywhere close to the money he spent, does not mean I think Elias is an idiot. See, when you say that, you lose all credibility because I know you've read me say many times, including in this thread all the things I think Elias does well.

I've made my concerns quite clear why I think this move is insane for this team at this juncture. I've also made it quite clear that none of us know whether Elias can take that farm system and team on the cusp of contending and get it over he finishing line because has not done so. 

His answers last year when the team was contending was to trade two of his players (Absolutely the right thing to do) and then add Brett Phillips and Jesse Aguilar down the stretch while also playing a below replacement level second baseman almost every day. 

As for Veteranosity, I do think players can help others during a year, but I don't think a player plays completely different or significantly improves just because of a presence of another. I think Odor probably a fantastic clubhouse guy and he clearly is a great teammate, but give me 1 WAR second baseman who is an average teammate and I bet the team would have been better. 

We hear was a great clubhouse, and that's nice, but guess what, winning teams (Minus out the A's and Yankees in the 70s and early 80's under Billy Martin) tend to get along because winning is fun. I think the manager has something to do with that environment as well. Personally, the Orioles very well have made the playoffs last year if Elias would not have kept Odor and Chirinos on the team all year and replaced them with 1 WAR players (So below average starter (2.0 WAR) level).

I'll be honest, I think last year was a complete throw away year for Elias but when the team was surprisingly still in it late in August, he acquired a washed up DH while still playing Odor. 

You said you think they've done a good job here, and I'm pointing out the players they choose to go with last year when still in a playoff chase were bad choices to prove my point that they have failed at times. All I'm saying until they don't, that's an unknown area.

As for them having the job and I don't, and they have more information then I do, and I'm just guy with a website, you're right. But this place would be pretty boring if all we did around was say, "Well, they must know more than us so let's shut up and just wait and see what happens!"

So I'm going to continue to agree when agree with moves and disagree (with statistics and facts) when I don't, and you can keep on thinking Elias does know wrong because he has the job and most know things that makes the Frazier signing make sense. 

Of course, they are just like the things they must've known about Odor, Chirinos, Phillips and Aguilar being big helps despite all the stats telling him not to do so. But I guess those failures don't count.

 

 

Tony, I’m not offended. I may not find the fan boy references amusing or particularly dignified by a man your age to a man my age, but I don’t care. I’ve been called far worse to my face for 29 years at work, trust me. What I wrote there was just humor. I guess I should have put that in green font. You intel guys have no sense of humor…lol!

I do respect your opinions, and I mean no slight at all. I know many scouts, associates and full timers. I know some executives and former players. I don’t agree with all of them either. So what. The conversations are usually a lot more respectful, and not so polarized. This board feeds off you. Your polar opinion becomes that of many here. Most here are stat line scouts and have no idea about the processes that player has or is capable of having. 

To say I find no faults in Elias’ decisions is false. It does not happen near as often as you. Some of the moves I definitely do not understand at the time they are made. I am not privy to the factors surrounding the choices made. We are all just making guesses. Some of them are educated more than others. I happen to agree with many things they do. It doesn’t mean that I or anyone else is a rubber stamp. There is a lot of gray area in there. I don’t see many absolutes. 

I am not as eloquent as some here. I do not put much time into statistical research, and my understanding of advanced metrics is fairly rudimentary compared to many here. I am busy working and coaching. Not much time these days for message boards. I got papers and homework to grade as a rookie teacher. But I do know a few things about the game and the processes of players. I know that players can improve greatly, if only to a point. It can depend on the fit with an organization. I see a chance that Frazier might work out. I am not saying this was some kind of great signing. I am not going to crap all over any signing by this group before the guy has a chance to even play a game. That I won’t do. They have earned the benefit of the doubt for me. Except for the Aguilar signing and the Phillips trade. Those puzzle me more than just about anything. Whoever brought those ideas to the table should be reassigned to washing batting practice balls and cleaning/polishing cleats. We need help for the clubbies too. See, I sometimes criticize Elias…lol.

I’m just a guy who has been coming to your board for a long time. We agree on a lot of things. Not on this one. Moving on. Cheers!