Mateo Trade Potential

[LookinUp]

27 minutes ago, theobird said:

With the glut of high level middle infield prospects the Orioles have, taking offers on both Mateo and Urias makes a lot of sense.  And I think they both have quite a bit of trade value, more than most on here think. I like both of these guys, but if the return was strong enough I would trade them, due to the arrival of Ortiz, Westburg and now Frazier. 

I don't think as a stand alone trade they have all that much value. Could be valuable as a 2nd/3rd piece in a big deal though.

[tabletop]

8 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

When has he traded anyone who has been a highly regarded player?  They were all dealt before he took over. 

I guess it all depends on how you define "highly regarded". Was Cobb off a solid shortened 2020 season highly regarded? Was Givens and his career 3.32era who had a 1.38era when Elias traded him highly regarded? Was Bundy the former top pitching prospect who had been roughly a league average pitcher during his career? I don't know the answer to those. I just know that he has traded off multiple players and the returns have been less than impressive so far.

[tabletop]

8 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

When has he traded anyone who has been a highly regarded player?  They were all dealt before he took over. 

I guess it all depends on how you define "highly regarded". Was Cobb off a solid shortened 2020 season highly regarded? Was Givens and his career 3.32era who had a 1.38era when Elias traded him highly regarded? Was Bundy the former top pitching prospect who had been roughly a league average pitcher during his career? I don't know the answer to those. I just know that he has traded off multiple players and the returns have been less than impressive so far.

[eddie83]

12 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

The Twins still seem like one of the best landing spots to me. Or maybe Atlanta (as someone suggested in another post) if they don't believe in Grissom. The Red Sox would be a good fit too (I don't think they want to play Story at SS), but their minor league system is pretty barren. 

I don't think the Braves have a top 100 prospect in the minors anymore (they promoted them all last season). Their best MiLB SP is probably  Jared Schuster. I'd say that would probably be a pretty even one for one swap. 

The Twins have Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle , who could be possible one year rentals if we are trying to win now. I'd like our starting rotation A LOT more with one of them penciled in as the #2 or #3. 

They just signed Vazquez to a 3 year deal. 
 

Jeffers would be a nice backup C. If you look at his offense it’s looks bad but he can hit LHP. Maeda/ Jeffers/ ???? For Mateo/????

Edited December 20, 2022 by eddie83

[eddie83]

10 minutes ago, tabletop said:

I guess it all depends on how you define "highly regarded". Was Cobb off a solid shortened 2020 season highly regarded? Was Givens and his career 3.32era who had a 1.38era when Elias traded him highly regarded? Was Bundy the former top pitching prospect who had been roughly a league average pitcher during his career? I don't know the answer to those. I just know that he has traded off multiple players and the returns have been less than impressive so far.

I don’t think I’m in general you are getting much back for those guys and plus it was at a different time for the organization. No idea how it will work out but the arm they got for Lopez was nice. Then it was a massive rebuild. That is over. 

[Aristotelian]

24 minutes ago, tabletop said:

I guess it all depends on how you define "highly regarded". Was Cobb off a solid shortened 2020 season highly regarded? Was Givens and his career 3.32era who had a 1.38era when Elias traded him highly regarded? Was Bundy the former top pitching prospect who had been roughly a league average pitcher during his career? I don't know the answer to those. I just know that he has traded off multiple players and the returns have been less than impressive so far.

Givens' 1.38 ERA was in all of 13 innings he pitched for the O's in 2020. The year before that were 4.57 and 3.99. I think highly regarded would be a massive stretch for any of those players at the time they were traded. 

[tabletop]

13 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Givens' 1.38 ERA was in all of 13 innings he pitched for the O's in 2020. The year before that were 4.57 and 3.99. I think highly regarded would be a massive stretch for any of those players at the time they were traded. 

Even if you just went based off those two seasons he was still an above average reliever. Highly regarded is also a subjective term so like I said to Eddie I can't answer to that. I think, and the stats also back this up, that he was an above average reliever up until the time of his trade. For me, I would consider him "highly regarded". For you and Eddie, apparently not. I don't think there is anyway to definitively really say one way or the other.

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

but infield defense is a little harder.

Yes, but it will also be harder for the bevy of less athletic SS options teams are mulling over right now.

[E-D-D-I-E]

Not a huge fan of Mateo, but as mentioned (sports guy), his power will play up in other parks. Secondly, with no shift, his ground balls in the 6 hole, are hits. I believe his value to be greater this coming year with the O's and even more valuable for some other teams, with better hitters parks. Mateo hitting .260-270 would be a huge asset.

[tabletop]

1 minute ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Not a huge fan of Mateo, but as mentioned (sports guy), his power will play up in other parks. Secondly, with no shift, his ground balls in the 6 hole, are hits. I believe his value to be greater this coming year with the O's and even more valuable for some other teams, with better hitters parks. Mateo hitting .260-270 would be a huge asset.

If he hit .260-.270 he'd be one of the best SS in baseball.

[Number5]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

Mateo has to really play his ass off on defense and on the base paths to maintain that kind of WAR. Stealing bases will get a little easier next year, but infield defense is a little harder. If I'm another team, I have my doubts he'll be able to maintain that kind of production.

I disagree.  WAR is a comparative stat, and the new shift rules will increase the value of an excellent defensive shortstop with range, not decrease it, IMO.  Heretofore teams have been able to mitigate having a SS with subpar range through positioning.  They will be much less able to do so now.  I believe that Mateo's attractiveness has been increased with the new shift rules, as well as the new rules that affect base stealing.

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I disagree.  WAR is a comparative stat, and the new shift rules will increase the value of an excellent defensive shortstop with range, not decrease it, IMO.  Heretofore teams have been able to mitigate having a SS with subpar range through positioning.  They will be much less able to do so now.  I believe that Mateo's attractiveness has been increased with the new shift rules, as well as the new rules that affect base stealing.

Ah good point, thanks for the correction there about WAR. That makes sense!

[Sports Guy]

I didn’t see this posted:

 

https://theathletic.com/4019710/2022/12/19/mlb-offseason-trades-dodgers/?source=user_shared_article

Orioles’ Mateo on the move?

The Orioles, according to major-league sources, began receiving inquiries on shortstop Jorge Mateo almost immediately after the Cubs reached agreement with Dansby Swanson, the last of the big four free agents at the position.

The Twins, Braves, Red Sox and Dodgers all lost shortstops on the open market. Mateo, entering his age 28 season, might be an affordable and potentially attractive fit for interested clubs, a player whose value as an athletic defender and stolen-base threat should only increase as the league introduces shift restrictions, larger bases and pickoff rules in 2023.

The Orioles like the idea of pairing their right-handed hitting infielders, Mateo and Ramón Urías, with their left-handed hitting options, Gunnar Henderson and Adam Frazier. The additional depth at second, short and third will enable them not only to mix and match, but also to get each player sufficient rest. Then again, the O’s also will have three middle-infield prospects at Triple A, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortizand Connor Norby. The team is bound to move some of its infielders eventually.

Mateo, then, would appear expendable in the right deal. He ranked among the top five defenders at short last season in both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, and is projected to earn a relatively paltry $1.8 million in the first of his three years of arbitration. The downside: His adjusted OPS last season was 19 percent below league average, though he did lead the American League with 35 stolen bases (in 44 attempts) and pop 13 home runs.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Sports Guy

[NCRaven]

Mateo can not hit and there's little to suggest he will.  It doesn't have to me a big offer.  If you can get anything of value for Mateo, I'd make the deal.

[MurphDogg]

4 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Mateo can not hit and there's little to suggest he will.  It doesn't have to me a big offer.  If you can get anything of value for Mateo, I'd make the deal.

His oWAR was 1.9 last year, good for fifth on the team.

Only about a dozen shortstops can hit.

If Mateo could hit he would be looking at a $20M+ annual contract.