Mateo Trade Potential

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

I love Mateo's glove, but I don't think any major league player with a .267 OBP should be playing everyday, regardless of where they're batting in the order or how good defensively they are. 

If you look at last season's top fielding SS' the only other teams that regularly played slick fielding shortstops who hit as poorly as Mateo were the Marlins (Miguel Rojas) and Yankees (Kiner-Falefa).  Both of those teams realized that wasn't a recipe for success and the Marlins traded Rojas and the Yankees have turned the reigns over to their young high end rookie (O.Pereza). 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=13,d 

Preventing a run is the same as scoring a run.  

Mateo at SS is fine.  And when he has that two or three week stretch where he hits a little and we all wonder if he's turning into an offensive force that's a lot of fun, too.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Preventing a run is the same as scoring a run.  

Mateo at SS is fine.  And when he has that two or three week stretch where he hits a little and we all wonder if he's turning into an offensive force that's a lot of fun, too.

Not to be too pedantic, but saving a run is actually a little bit better than scoring a run.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Not to be too pedantic, but saving a run is actually a little bit better than scoring a run.

I see your point.

Back to Mateo's shortcomings, I don't think anyone would want to trot out a lineup of guys who have a .276 OBP.  But one guy in the lineup is ok, especially if he provides defense the way he does at SS.  

The Orioles playoff chances aren't going to be won or lost because Mateo provided 2.5-3.5 WAR if he stays the everyday SS all season but only had a .276 OBP.  

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Not to be too pedantic, but saving a run is actually a little bit better than scoring a run.

I’ve never understood that math, but in any event the difference is so small as to be meaningless in analyzing players.  

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve never understood that math, but in any event the difference is so small as to be meaningless in analyzing players.  

I don't understand the math but I get the concept: You can't lose if you don't give up any runs.

But yes, the difference is small enough that isn't all that important.

[Moose Milligan]

I am NOT comparing Mateo to Ozzie Smith (well, maybe a little, but I'm moreso trying to illustrate a point and I know that age is a factor here, etc, whatever) when I say that Ozzie's first 4 years were a slash line of .231/.295/.278 for a .573 OPS.  His OPS+ was 66.  Heading into his 5th year (age 27) is when he began to become a bit better at the plate.

But his WAR for the first 4 seasons was a tidy 11.0.  That's not an outstanding number but it goes to show you can be weak with the bat and still provide value.  

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I see your point.

Back to Mateo's shortcomings, I don't think anyone would want to trot out a lineup of guys who have a .276 OBP.  But one guy in the lineup is ok, especially if he provides defense the way he does at SS.  

The Orioles playoff chances aren't going to be won or lost because Mateo provided 2.5-3.5 WAR if he stays the everyday SS all season but only had a .276 OBP.  

IMO, he deserves a chance  to do what he did last year.  And if he repeats his performance last year, as someone else pointed out, it would be very difficult to unseat him as the de facto every day shortstop.  

Edited January 26, 2023 by Pickles

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

He has to figure out a way to hit.

He figure out a way to hit with the help of the coaches.   He needs to stick to what they taught him.   He showed what he could do last July but being able to do it over a season is a different thing.   He could be a 700+ OPS hitter.   At that level with his defense he's very valuable.   If he ever approaches the .750-800 range is an all-star.    I'm skeptical he can do it permanently but he showed he could do it.

[Sports Guy]

He’s so good and so valuable yet he has no value. It’s an interesting thought process.

[Frobby]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I see your point.

Back to Mateo's shortcomings, I don't think anyone would want to trot out a lineup of guys who have a .276 OBP.  But one guy in the lineup is ok, especially if he provides defense the way he does at SS.  

The Orioles playoff chances aren't going to be won or lost because Mateo provided 2.5-3.5 WAR if he stays the everyday SS all season but only had a .276 OBP.  

Right.   The issue is, will he continue to play as well this year, and do we have some better alternative?   Let’s say Gunnar could only play SS and nowhere else.   In that case, I’d want him playing over Mateo.   But that’s not the reality.   We’re going to see multiple combinations this year, with Gunnar at 3B and SS, Urias at 2B and 3B (and maybe a bit of SS), Frazier at 2B and in the OF, and maybe Westburg and Ortiz factoring in at some point.  So, lots of ways this can go.   One thing seems certain: when Mateo plays, he’ll play SS.

I’ve said this multiple times, but there’s a lot of variance in how Mateo might do offensively this year.  ZiPS has his 80th percentile OPS+ at 103, his 20th percentile at 67.   That’s a huge gap.  And we’re talking about a guy who was either ice cold or red hot for very long stretches last year.   I honestly don’t recall a player having a season quite like it.  I’ve got no idea what’s in store for him.  

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s so good and so valuable yet he has no value. It’s an interesting thought process.

He has to establish his value.  If he puts up another 3 WAR next year his value will go up significantly.  It's not dissimilar to Mullins.  Mullins value was up in 2022 vs 2021, even though his year wasn't as good, because he had established a baseline that teams were comfortable with.  Mateo, rightly, has yet to do that.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Right.   The issue is, will he continue to play as well this year, and do we have some better alternative?   Let’s say Gunnar could only play SS and nowhere else.   In that case, I’d want him playing over Mateo.   But that’s not the reality.   We’re going to see multiple combinations this year, with Gunnar at 3B and SS, Urias at 2B and 3B (and maybe a bit of SS), Frazier at 2B and in the OF, and maybe Westburg and Ortiz factoring in at some point.  So, lots of ways this can go.   One thing seems certain: when Mateo plays, he’ll play SS.

I’ve said this multiple times, but there’s a lot of variance in how Mateo might do offensively this year.  ZiPS has his 80th percentile OPS+ at 103, his 20th percentile at 67.   That’s a huge gap.  And we’re talking about a guy who was either ice cold or red hot for very long stretches last year.   I honestly don’t recall a player having a season quite like it.  I’ve got no idea what’s in store for him.  

Yeah, I could see Mateo as the opening day SS but slowly gets phased out over the course of the summer as different options emerge.  Unless he's figured out how to hit, and then he'll be really hard to unseat.  

I really have no idea what's in store for him, either.  It could go a few different ways.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

He has to establish his value.  If he puts up another 3 WAR next year his value will go up significantly.  It's not dissimilar to Mullins.  Mullins value was up in 2022 vs 2021, even though his year wasn't as good, because he had established a baseline that teams were comfortable with.  Mateo, rightly, has yet to do that.

How do we know Mullins’ value was up?  

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

How do we know Mullins’ value was up?  

We don't.  It's an informed assumption.

[oriole]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s so good and so valuable yet he has no value. It’s an interesting thought process.

I don’t think any of us are saying he is a potential All Star. But he has considerable usefulness in the role he has played thus far.