Poll: Do you like the Adam Frazier signing?

[Jagwar]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Words are not tangible evidence. 

The signings of more mediocre placeholders like Gibson and Frazier, OTOH, are tangible evidence that improving enough to grab one of the 6 available playoff spots is not a major concern in 2023.

Aspiration definition... "a hope or ambition of achieving something". Your original question to me was "What tangible evidence is there that the Orioles have playoff aspirations for next year?" Aren't public statements a piece of evidence that the GM has hope of making the playoffs, even if you are disappointed with the actual execution? 

[Sports Guy]

Something not really discussed is the OF side of things.

If you want to believe in stats like OAA, the Os primary corner OFers in 2022 declined. The COF defense got worse in 2022.  So far, the Os have done nothing to improve that.  Elias mentioned that Frazier will get OF time.  But this is a guy that OAA has only graded him to be a plus OFer in one season..2017.

Other than that, he’s been average at best and now the foot speed is declining. 
 

Why are we ok with this aspect of things? The COF is already below average and you are going to arguably make it worse?  And you are going to give at bats to a player in the OF whose numbers are, value/position wise, far worse than what you expect from those positions?  
 

But this is a good thing!?!?

[Tony-OH]

21 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

It's just my opinion and view on the poll Tony. That's all. Either choice is a risk. 

And I suppose the boomerang question on the topic of "hope"... What makes you think Ortiz/Westburg will not fall flat? Isn't there a healthy amount of hope there too? 

Because of statistics that they put up in AAA (and some EV data though not a ton) that suggest that will translate to the big leagues. Because I know Ortiz's defense will be better at 2B than Frazier. Because both Westburg and Ortiz are younger and faster than Frazier. 

I'm not quite sure why this is a real argument from you. You do realize the usage of statistics helps us drive decisions on players, right? In his last 800 major league PAs Frazier has not been good. 

Hope is thinking he's going to rebound. 

To put it in minor league terms, hope was by some around here that Yusniel Diaz would figure it out despite putting up awful AAA numbers. That was hope. That was based off his flashes in the past, but in the end, it was hope that something would be change.

A 31-year old player with low EVs, a major drop in speed, platoon issues, a drop in hitting fastballs, bad WOBA, and terrible xWOBACON numbers (basically when he makes contact he's a below average hitter) who has been bad for over 800 PAs, is a player that you have to HOPE gets better, because there is nothing beyond that to suggest otherwise.

Is it impossible for him to get back to .750, no. Is it likely, no. But we can hope that he does because at this point, Elias is going to run him out there for 475 PAs or more this next year after spending $8 million on him.

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Then you are purposely lying to yourself. No way you aren’t smart enough to understand that side of things. 

You have told everyone even if Frazier plays well it is a bad move. 
 

Odor can’t play the OF, can’t get OBP and is weaker defensively and he K’s more. How are they similar? 
 

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

This argument comes down to people who are sure that players cannot statistically improve vs. those who believe mechanically adjustments can help a player produce more than they have recently. Some believe that EV’s and other data/metrics cannot be improved somewhat by adjusting the approach and mechanics. Some do. The Orioles must think so. I’m not talking about huge improvements, though. Reconnecting the lower half can certainly add more power to his swing. Being more selective of what pitches he swings at will help as well. 

No one that I have read on this topic has written that his numbers were good since he left Pitt in 2021. We all agree. It was a sudden drop. Why? Is it fixable? After listening to Frazier speak in a few interviews, he thinks it is. The Orioles must also. They bet $8 million on him and their coaches.

If this was a RH pull hitter, looking for a bounce back year, it would be a strange move. Frazier’s profile is interesting to me. I’m not expecting a career year out of him. Maybe somewhere between his average and his best years would be great. Or, maybe he plays his way into a bench role by June and gets beaten out by Ortiz, Norby or Westburg. I’m willing to see it play out. 

The go select yes, because you haven't voted yet.

BTW, what makes you think Elias will bench an $8 million player. He wouldn't bench Odor and he was making the bare minimum. At the end of the day, buckle up for at least 475 PAs of Frazier next year regardless of his output.

[eddie83]

10 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Odor is a 2B that posted a 79 OPS+ in 2022.

Frazier is a 2B that posted an 80 OPS+ in 2022.

There you go.

Mark Belanger posted a career OPS+ of 68.

He is a weaker player than Odor.
 

There you go. 
 

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

You have told everyone even if Frazier plays well it is a bad move. 
 

Odor can’t play the OF, can’t get OBP and is weaker defensively and he K’s more. How are they similar? 
 

As was shown to you, they had basically idenitical OPs+ last year.

I have said it’s a bad move because blocking younger players for aging, declining, expensive ones is stupid.

Thats all this is. There is nothing that can be argued against there. You have been building this inventory and this pipeline. You have focused on IFers. You have 2 to 100 guys (by some publications) that are ready to be everyday players at this level.

So what do you do? You sign someone that is almost guaranteed at least 450 at bats (barring injury) and will, without question, take at bats away from those players.  That is illogical. It goes against everything you are doing and are trying to accomplish.

And you did with while spending 8M dollars, which will probably be 10-12% of your payroll. It doesn’t make sense.

Even if a trade occurs, it still doesn’t make sense because you should have gotten someone better.

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Mark Belanger posted a career OPS+ of 68.

He is a weaker player than Odor.
 

There you go. 
 

 

We have gone beyond Bizarro world now. 

I'm all about conversation, but really? 

Everyone knows Belanger's value was in his defense at SS. Comparing him to Odor in any argument is absurd unless someone was arguing that Odor was the worse offensive starter in Orioles history. Then Belanger would have been a great choice to bring into the convo.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Aspiration definition... "a hope or ambition of achieving something". Your original question to me was "What tangible evidence is there that the Orioles have playoff aspirations for next year?" Aren't public statements a piece of evidence that the GM has hope of making the playoffs, even if you are disappointed with the actual execution? 

I can aspire to date a model, but if I am out of shape, unemployed, and don't shower for weeks at a time, and hang out exclusively at seedy dive bars, is that a remotely realistic aspiration?

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Mark Belanger posted a career OPS+ of 68.

He is a weaker player than Odor.
 

There you go. 
 

 

Yes, because comparing Adam Frazier to an alltime great defender at a completely dfferent position in a vastly different era of baseball is honest and reasonable, and not even a little disingenuous or desperate 

[Moose Milligan]

25 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I'm actually right there with you. I'd love to see what they can do. But that entails a good amount of hope/risk, just as the Frazier signing does. 

Sure, I guess so.  I mean there's hope/risk involved with every player, some more than others.

[Sports Guy]

I do like that Frazier had a 6 OAA at second last year. Hadn’t looked that up until now (I’m sure it was said on here but I missed it)

If he can hold that, at least you should get something out of him.

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

We have gone beyond Bizarro world now. 

I'm all about conversation, but really? 

Everyone knows Belanger's value was in his defense at SS. Comparing him to Odor in any argument is absurd unless someone was arguing that Odor was the worse offensive starter in Orioles history. Then Belanger would have been a great choice to bring into the convo.

What does Odor do well other than hit HR’s ? I was being sarcastic for effect. 

[Jagwar]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Because of statistics that they put up in AAA (and some EV data though not a ton) that suggest that will translate to the big leagues. Because I know Ortiz's defense will be better at 2B than Frazier. Because both Westburg and Ortiz are younger and faster than Frazier. 

I'm not quite sure why this is a real argument from you. You do realize the usage of statistics helps us drive decisions on players, right? In his last 800 major league PAs Frazier has not been good. 

Hope is thinking he's going to rebound. 

To put it in minor league terms, hope was by some around here that Yusniel Diaz would figure it out despite putting up awful AAA numbers. That was hope. That was based off his flashes in the past, but in the end, it was hope that something would be change.

A 31-year old player with low EVs, a major drop in speed, platoon issues, a drop in hitting fastballs, bad WOBA, and terrible xWOBACON numbers (basically when he makes contact he's a below average hitter) who has been bad for over 800 PAs, is a player that you have to HOPE gets better, because there is nothing beyond that to suggest otherwise.

Is it impossible for him to get back to .750, no. Is it likely, no. But we can hope that he does because at this point, Elias is going to run him out there for 475 PAs or more this next year after spending $8 million on him.

Fair enough. I understand what you have laid out, and I think it is likely that 2022 Frazier is what we've signed and not early 2021 Frazier. It's a real argument for me because as an analyst by nature, I dig through all potential outcomes, no matter how likely. And in my opinion, there is a non-zero chance that Ortiz or Westburg will struggle upon their promotion and need to return to AAA. And in that same vein, I think Frazier gives some insurance in case that happens. Is it the best and cheapest insurance? No. But perhaps it helps someone like Ortiz make the roster, takes pressure off of him, and helps him be successful. 

 

[eddie83]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

As was shown to you, they had basically idenitical OPs+ last year.

I have said it’s a bad move because blocking younger players for aging, declining, expensive ones is stupid.

Thats all this is. There is nothing that can be argued against there. You have been building this inventory and this pipeline. You have focused on IFers. You have 2 to 100 guys (by some publications) that are ready to be everyday players at this level.

So what do you do? You sign someone that is almost guaranteed at least 450 at bats (barring injury) and will, without question, take at bats away from those players.  That is illogical. It goes against everything you are doing and are trying to accomplish.

And you did with while spending 8M dollars, which will probably be 10-12% of your payroll. It doesn’t make sense.

Even if a trade occurs, it still doesn’t make sense because you should have gotten someone better.

So because you feel this way everyone else should as well. That is the core of your argument. You always want the kids to play. You want Westburg to be the starter. Great. Not a crazy thought at all. 
 

My point is you still have the exact same pipeline. It has not gone anywhere. 
 

I do not think for one second that Frazier’s playing time will be the reason for this team not being a playoff team or not. 
 

The percentage of team payroll is meaningless. MLB players are not paid what they produce. They are paid based upon service time and the market. Which you know. 

[Jagwar]

4 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I can aspire to date a model, but if I am out of shape, unemployed, and don't shower for weeks at a time, and hang out exclusively at seedy dive bars, is that a remotely realistic aspiration?

You just described me to a "T" (other than seedy dive bars) after getting laid off in October.  

In a way you proved my point. Aspiration is about hope or ambition, not about actions. And heading into the offseason, I thought a playoff spot was a realistic aspiration. But for a multitude of reasons, the lack of solid offseason additions makes that aspiration much less likely.