There's a much better Trevor potentially available via trade with the Marlins

[E-D-D-I-E]

3 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

We're not getting 2021 Rogers for Hays, Westburg and Vavra. Especially if the only issue last year was the lat strain and there's reason to believe he's 2021 Rogers going forward. You'd have to offer them more like that proposed Corbin Burnes trade package of Cowser/Westburg/Povich/Bradish to get them to bite. And I'm not sure even that's enough. Rogers has 4 years of control left to Burnes's two, though with much less of a track record

Much less of a track record? Burnes is recent CY Young winner. Not to be negative toward you bud, but comparing those 2 in any way is laughable. 

 

Similarly, I wouldn't give them 3 high rated prospects and my best starter, debatable, coming off of a very rough season. In face Braddish is probably better by himself. 

 

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Much less of a track record? Burnes is recent CY Young winner. Not to be negative toward you bud, but comparing those 2 in any way is laughable. 

 

Similarly, I wouldn't give them 3 high rated prospects and my best starter, debatable, coming off of a very rough season. In face Braddish is probably better by himself. 

 

Oh, I wouldn't do that trade either. I'm just saying if Rogers was legitimately his 2021 season going forward, you'd have to part with at least what I said. He may not be as good as Burnes, but you get him for twice as long and probably less money.

The Marlins are probably saying to the Orioles: Rogers is an incredible young pitcher who battled non-arm injuries last year that caused him to struggle. The year before he had a 2.64 ERA over 25 starts and he's cheap and under team control for a long time. I'm going to need a package that values him as a young, budding ace.

The Orioles are probably saying to the Marlins: If we thought he was the pitcher he was last year, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Two years ago happened, but so did last year. He could be an ace going forward, or he could be backend of the rotation. We're going to price that risk into our offer or this deal isn't going to go anywhere.

I would trade Hays, Westburg, Vavra for him in a heartbeat, though. The Marlins would be right to want more.

FWIW, Baseball Trade Values says that deal is basically fair: Hays (19.5 mil) + Westburg (15.6 mil) + Vavra (2.7 mil) = 38 million surplus value, and Rogers is 36.5 million surplus value

Edited December 28, 2022 by ChosenOne21

[bpilktree]

5 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

We're not getting 2021 Rogers for Hays, Westburg and Vavra. Especially if the only issue last year was the lat strain and there's reason to believe he's 2021 Rogers going forward. You'd have to offer them more like that proposed Corbin Burnes trade package of Cowser/Westburg/Povich/Bradish to get them to bite. And I'm not sure even that's enough. Rogers has 4 years of control left to Burnes's two, though with much less of a track record

I am not sure I would trade Bradish straight up for Rogers..   Bradish pitched as good as Rogers last year and they are projected to have similar type seasons this seasons.  If I am moving Bradish it is only for someone that has proven himself more then one good season.   Bradish was very dominant once he got called back up with era in low 3’s and whip under 1.2.   His stuff looks as good or better then everyone in our organization not named Rodriguez with more upside then Kremer imo.

[Jammer7]

3 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

So how did that guy pitch to a 2.64 ERA/2.52 FIP two years ago in 25 starts?

He did have one good season, 2021. The year after COVID. The league adjusted, he needs to adjust now.

I find him interesting, sure. You cited Corbin Burnes, a guy who has 3-4 good to excellent years and a CY Young. The longevity is what makes the packages very different for me.

As I said, I find him interesting. A guy we can improve upon, potentially, and have a much better result. Fly ball pitcher with a deep/tall LF wall would help.

[ChosenOne21]

6 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

He did have one good season, 2021. The year after COVID. The league adjusted, he needs to adjust now.

I find him interesting, sure. You cited Corbin Burnes, a guy who has 3-4 good to excellent years and a CY Young. The longevity is what makes the packages very different for me.

As I said, I find him interesting. A guy we can improve upon, potentially, and have a much better result. Fly ball pitcher with a deep/tall LF wall would help.

My point was that guys with "one plus pitch" don't pitch seasons of ace level performance with the underlying numbers backing it up. Maybe the injuries messed with his stuff last year and he only had one plus pitch in 2022 and that's why he struggled, but I'd be shocked if he doesn't have more than one plus pitch when healthy.

And yeah, Burnes has the better track record by far. The tradeoff is you only get him for two years instead of four. Rogers has shown he is capable of pitching at a near Burnes level, but of course there's some risk

Edited December 28, 2022 by ChosenOne21

[ChosenOne21]

7 hours ago, bpilktree said:

I am not sure I would trade Bradish straight up for Rogers..   Bradish pitched as good as Rogers last year and they are projected to have similar type seasons this seasons.  If I am moving Bradish it is only for someone that has proven himself more then one good season.   Bradish was very dominant once he got called back up with era in low 3’s and whip under 1.2.   His stuff looks as good or better then everyone in our organization not named Rodriguez with more upside then Kremer imo.

The word 2021 in my quote is key. If Rogers put up another year in 2022 like he did in 2021, would you still not trade Bradish for him? I wouldn't want to trade Bradish for my hypothetical Rogers, but if the Marlins insisted he had to be part of the package, I'd do it.

We might be a little high on Bradish. Baseball Trade Values has him at 13.2 million surplus value. I'm personally a believer and think he's probably worth more like twice that, but I'm sure their approach is more robust than mine

They have the Cowser (25)/Westberg (15.6)/Povich (2.4)/Bradish (13.2) package as worth 53.6 million. I have to imagine Rogers would be worth at least that if last year looked like 2021. He's worth 36 million in spite of last year, which is pulling down his projections

Edited December 28, 2022 by ChosenOne21

[Roll Tide]

15 hours ago, banks703 said:

This would make a lot of sense given their extremely heavy right handed staff. 

 

I don't know if Hays and Westburg do it for Miami tough although it's probably pretty fair. 

Hays and Hall?

[Jammer7]

4 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

My point was that guys with "one plus pitch" don't pitch seasons of ace level performance with the underlying numbers backing it up. Maybe the injuries messed with his stuff last year and he only had one plus pitch in 2022 and that's why he struggled, but I'd be shocked if he doesn't have more than one plus pitch when healthy.

And yeah, Burnes has the better track record by far. The tradeoff is you only get him for two years instead of four. Rogers has shown he is capable of pitching at a near Burnes level, but of course there's some risk

I understand. The grades I saw on Fangraphs on his breaking ball (slider) was a 45. The change up 60 and fastball was a 55. MLB pipeline had the same, and he was #7 for the Marlins in 2020. The fastball was 90-93, t96. Repeats well, control is around a 55.

He must have some deception as the ball seems to get on batters quickly. The fastball is now up to 94.6 according to baseball savant. The 74% extension and 90% spin are very good. His expected 13% OBA,  20% SLG and 16% BA are awful. Everything else is around average. The slider did have a 34% whiff rate. Must have command issues with it. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/trevor-rogers-669432?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

The upside is very good. I do not disagree with you. Maybe there is a deal there, but I have no idea why they would want to move him. Maybe your deal is feasible if they believe they can improve him significantly. They would have to add a minor league prospect for me. For the Marlins, maybe they would move him for a Mateo or a Mullins. Is Hays enough with the two prospects? IDK. 2021 was a strange year for MLB players and some stats are a little out of whack to me. 2022 was a down year for offense. If the Orioles look at him closely and want him, maybe they would offer such a package. Maybe more. I don’t see it on stats alone, but I do see some upside there. 

[HakunaSakata]

Here's an interesting read on Trevor Roger's 2022 season, the adjustments he made, and how there might be a silver lining going forward. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-rogers-changed-it-up/

I'm personally optimistic and could see Rogers maybe splitting the difference between his 2021 and 2022 seasons. So maybe a high 3's ERA will upside for better? 

In terms of the Marlins SPs, I'd still prefer Luzardo and maybe even E. Cabrera over Rodgers. Between Lopez and Rogers, it's probably a coin flip.

[banks703]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

Here's an interesting read on Trevor Roger's 2022 season, the adjustments he made, and how there might be a silver lining going forward. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-rogers-changed-it-up/

I'm personally optimistic and could see Rogers maybe splitting the difference between his 2021 and 2022 seasons. So maybe a high 3's ERA will upside for better? 

In terms of the Marlins SPs, I'd still prefer Luzardo and maybe even E. Cabrera over Rodgers. Between Lopez and Rogers, it's probably a coin flip.

Depending on what would be required in an acquisition, I'm with you on Luzardo but I don't think the Marlins are going to trade him. 

 

If Hall is not going to be a rotation option, I like the idea of a lefty and Rodgers could be a buy-low candidate, though I doubt his price fell much, if at all due to the step back of 2022 for him. Lefty starters 25 and under don't grow on trees so I imagine either of Luzardo or Rodgers is going to cost a lot. 

[Sports Guy]

It really doesn’t make sense for the Marlins to trade Rogers unless they feel 2021 was his peak year and he won’t be doing a whole lot going forward. If they feel he’s still going to be very good, they won’t get the value for him they are looking for.

[banks703]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It really doesn’t make sense for the Marlins to trade Rogers unless they feel 2021 was his peak year and he won’t be doing a whole lot going forward. If they feel he’s still going to be very good, they won’t get the value for him they are looking for.

They probably still value him high. I don't expect that they'll trade him unless blown away by the offer. He would be a nice get for the O's who are going to be very lefty-deprived in 23 unless they make some moves. 

[Just Regular]

Trevor Rogers is kind of DL Hall if he could manage a 3.5 WAR season challenging for Rookie of the Year, followed by a bad sophomore slump.

He and Pablo do make an interesting compare/contrast as BTV guesses them about same in overall estimated surplus value for remaining years of Club control, but if you are Mike Elias do you want fewer years of steadier good quality, or more years of a box of chocolates?

I suspect if Hall throws 25 starts of sub 3.00 ERA some folks here would want Manoah or Alcantara for him.

[eddie83]

Some speculation about the Marlins and Orioles.  Not a trade between the two teams. Nothing earth shattering. 

Edited December 29, 2022 by eddie83

[Can_of_corn]

I thought this was about getting Trevor Horn to do the 2023 O's theme song.