Fangraphs ranks our SP as #28

[Camden Yards]

For the Orioles to make the playoffs we are going to need a few of the starters to outperform these predictions. Even if we have a great bullpen, we need to probably get to the 15-20 range. How accurate are these projections usually? 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

[Can_of_corn]

Kinda shocking that a strategy that ignores starting pitching doesn't lead to well regarded starting pitching.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Kinda shocking that a strategy that ignores starting pitching doesn't lead to well regarded starting pitching.

Wouldn't be particularly shocking though, to see their starters do considerably better than 28th in the league.

Or for their bullpen, which is pretty good, to be better than the 19th that Fangraphs has them ranked.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, owknows said:

Wouldn't be particularly shocking though, to see their starters do considerably better than 28th in the league.

Or for their bullpen, which is pretty good, to be better than the 19th that Fangraphs has them ranked.

I will say they are a lot more likely to exceed the prediction by five places then to fall five places below. 

He doesn't draft (much) pitching.

He doesn't sign (much) international pitching.

He doesn't sign much in the way of free agent pitchers.

I think it's telling that after four years on the job the top two pitching prospects in the system are from the prior regime.

So yea, maybe we exceed Fangraphs expectations and don't finish in the bottom three, but I can understand why we are there.

[Jagwar]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Kinda shocking that a strategy that ignores starting pitching doesn't lead to well regarded starting pitching.

Exactly. How many on the OH were wondering when Elias was going to focus on pitching in a draft?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Jagwar said:

Exactly. How many on the OH were wondering when Elias was going to focus on pitching in a draft?

I think most of us are just assuming he just won't.

I don't ever expect him to take a pitcher early at this point.

[Jagwar]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I think most of us are just assuming he just won't.

I don't ever expect him to take a pitcher early at this point.

I'm wondering if a key cog in his strategy is hoping that position players on the ML squad can have great seasons and trade them at the deadline for pitching prospects.  

[JR Oriole]

Respect has to be earned and we don’t have it yet.  Don’t flame out in September this time around.  Finish strong, get to the playoffs, and win a series.  Basically do what Cleveland did.  Then the prognosticators can start ranking the team and the components higher than they might otherwise.  Until then, 83 wins will be seen as a fluke.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, JR Oriole said:

Respect has to be earned and we don’t have it yet.  Don’t flame out in September this time around.  Finish strong, get to the playoffs, and win a series.  Basically do what Cleveland did.  Then the prognosticators can start ranking the team and the components higher than they might otherwise.  Until then, 83 wins will be seen as a fluke.

I think Fangraphs just runs their simulations.

[owknows]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I will say they are a lot more likely to exceed the prediction by five places then to fall five places below. 

He doesn't draft (much) pitching.

He doesn't sign (much) international pitching.

He doesn't sign much in the way of free agent pitchers.

I think it's telling that after four years on the job the top two pitching prospects in the system are from the prior regime.

So yea, maybe we exceed Fangraphs expectations and don't finish in the bottom three, but I can understand why we are there.

I made the case once before that he intentionally avoids drafting pitchers in the early rounds opting instead for position players. And in particular middle infielders and CF.

And that he does this by intent... as the likelihood of a player graduating to MLB and playing more than one year is considerably higher for middle infielders and CF's than it is for pitchers. And that the net trade value of those players is generally higher early in their careers than it would be for pitchers.

That said, he has yet to capitalize on that surplus and deliver some trades for decent pitching with substantial years of control. Doesn't mean he won't. Just that he hasn't yet.

He's a pretty great draft GM... maximizing slot value and his keen eye for draft talent... but I have to say his tendencies in Free Agency frustrate me. Wiping the crud of of dumpster fodder position players seems to be a hobby for him. He rehabbed and "discovered" some hidden gems in previous years... and I'm afraid it's turned him into somewhat of a challenge junky when it comes to these players. At the expense of some of the talent he has previously traded for, drafted, and developed in the minors it would seem.

And that therefore

 

[Moose Milligan]

It’s got some potential to be better but right now it’s a fair ranking. 

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Exactly. How many on the OH were wondering when Elias was going to focus on pitching in a draft?

Meh…. Not me.  Sure, there’s a known gap in the pipeline.  He’s been drafting what will add value and trading for arms.  I feel like in 2022 he did focus on getting solid MiLB talent.  But yes, the bats have arrived sooner than the arms

 

39 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

For the Orioles to make the playoffs we are going to need a few of the starters to outperform these predictions. Even if we have a great bullpen, we need to probably get to the 15-20 range. How accurate are these projections usually? 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

Means should get more than 27 IP.  

If Wells posts the numbers they project him for, he’ll get less innings with Voth and/or Hall getting more.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, owknows said:

I made the case once before that he intentionally avoids drafting pitchers in the early rounds opting instead for position players. And in particular middle infielders and CF.

And that he does this by intent... as the likelihood of a player graduating to MLB and playing more than one year is considerably higher for middle infielders and CF's than it is for pitchers. And that the net trade value of those players is generally higher early in their careers than it would be for pitchers.

That said, he has yet to capitalize on that surplus and deliver some trades for decent pitching with substantial years of control. Doesn't mean he won't. Just that he hasn't yet.

He's a pretty great draft GM... maximizing slot value and his keen eye for draft talent... but I have to say his tendencies in Free Agency frustrate me. Wiping the crud of of dumpster fodder position players seems to be a hobby for him. He rehabbed and "discovered" some hidden gems in previous years... and I'm afraid it's turned him into somewhat of a challenge junky when it comes to these players. At the expense of some of the talent he has previously traded for, drafted, and developed in the minors it would seem.

And that therefore

 

I'd like to see some more drafts in which he isn't picking in the top 5.

See how he does with fewer resources.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

Meh…. Not me.  Sure, there’s a known gap in the pipeline.  He’s been drafting what will add value and trading for arms.  I feel like in 2022 he did focus on getting solid MiLB talent.  But yes, the bats have arrived sooner than the arms

 

Means should get more than 27 IP.  

If Wells posts the numbers they project him for, he’ll get less innings with Voth and/or Hall getting more.

Means should get more than 27.

But he might get zero.

It's an estimation.

I'm more interested in how few innings Hall is getting.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd like to see some more drafts in which he isn't picking in the top 5.

See how he does with fewer resources.

No doubt...

And to the same point... whether he squanders the talent he has amassed by failure to anticipate the potential logjams before they occur, as I fear he has just compounded with the Frazier acquisition.

We'll know quite a bit more by Spring Training, and by the deadline this year.