Building a case that the current O’s could be a 90+ win team

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

I don’t think starting pitching is the #1 inhibitor of our ceiling. Sure we could have regression, injuries, etc, but we do have decent depth.

For me, the thing that limits our ceiling is our lineup, and more specifically lack of OBP. I just don’t see us scoring enough runs to get to 90+ wins. Too many guys that are low .300 OBP guys, with a few below that. That was what I was truly hoping we could upgrade this off-season, and now the only way I see that happening is if Elias allows rookies to come in early, and they perform really well. That seems like foolish thinking/planning.

As I explained here, the OBP should be up about 8 points just by having Adley and Gunnar here all year, and getting rid of Odor and Nevin.   That would move the O’s from slightly below average (.305 OBP vs. league average .309) to slightly above average.

I feel that a lot of posts I read that discuss our OBP shortcomings seem to disregard the drastic OBP drop throughout MLB the last few years.  There seems to be this assumption that players with .320-.330 OBP’s grow on trees.  Well, that might have been the case five years ago, but the league has changed.   Like I said, .309 was the league average last year.   Maybe it will increase this year with the anti-shift rule in effect.   If so, the O’s OBP should benefit like any other team’s.

So in short, I’m not disputing your point that we need to improve our OBP.   But I think there will be some improvement from the personnel changes we made, and we weren’t that far from average before.   

[ThisIsBirdland]

22 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

I don’t think starting pitching is the #1 inhibitor of our ceiling. Sure we could have regression, injuries, etc, but we do have decent depth.

For me, the thing that limits our ceiling is our lineup, and more specifically lack of OBP. I just don’t see us scoring enough runs to get to 90+ wins. Too many guys that are low .300 OBP guys, with a few below that. That was what I was truly hoping we could upgrade this off-season, and now the only way I see that happening is if Elias allows rookies to come in early, and they perform really well. That seems like foolish thinking/planning.

A few changes may help here:

1. Shift elimination ought to help the heavy LHH lineup being put together.

2. Frazier in for Odor, especially if he can get back to the career .336 OBP.

3. Improved luck for Mountcastle that better reflect his underlying metrics.

4. Deeper bench with more productive veterans versus AAAA players, and more at bats from emerging players drafted by this front office.

 

[IPlayGM]

8 hours ago, Explosivo said:

What will be really funny is if Hall outperforms Rodriguez on the mound as a starter. Hall has an incredible arm. If he be more consistent with it, look out.

I think if you did a poll on reasons Hall outperforms Grayson, most results would not be “funny”….more like “franchise-crippling”.

[Frobby]

13 hours ago, connja said:

The team is creating a huge dependency on many of the young players taking a step forward.  I don't think it's realistic to assume that all of our young guys, as talented as they are, will improve upon last year.  I think that is going to be required to be a playoff team.

I do not think it is required that all of our young players improve, and it’s unrealistic to think that will happen.   What is needed, is for the ones who improve to outnumber the ones who stagnate or have setbacks.   And I do think that’s realistic, maybe even more likely than not.  

[sportsfan8703]

I think the 90 win sentiment will pick up here once ST games are underway. Adley, Gunnar, and Stowers are all going from Year one/taste of MLB to Year two. I expect they’re working their tails off this offseason, and all three of them can bat LH. That’s huge with the new shift rules. I expect that Westburg and Cowser play a ton in ST and stay till the last week. 
 

We have a ton of really good prospects ticketed for AA and AAA. We don’t even talk about a guy like Coby Mayo on here for 2023 because we’re so loaded with prospects.  I imagine he will turn some heads. 
 

Right now there is a negative vibe because we’re not spending a lot at FA and only looking at our farm system in terms of what MLB SP it could buy. 

[Going Underground]

56 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think the 90 win sentiment will pick up here once ST games are underway. Adley, Gunnar, and Stowers are all going from Year one/taste of MLB to Year two. I expect they’re working their tails off this offseason, and all three of them can bat LH. That’s huge with the new shift rules. I expect that Westburg and Cowser play a ton in ST and stay till the last week. 
 

We have a ton of really good prospects ticketed for AA and AAA. We don’t even talk about a guy like Coby Mayo on here for 2023 because we’re so loaded with prospects.  I imagine he will turn some heads. 
 

Right now there is a negative vibe because we’re not spending a lot at FA and only looking at our farm system in terms of what MLB SP it could buy. 

I think the negative vibe was sort of self inflicted by some comments by John Angelos and by the GM. The liftoff comment, we are going to get a MOB and 1-3 type  starting pitcher  John Angelos saying the Orioles would be like the Rays with a higher payroll  Maybe it got misinterpreted by some and they meant not all in one year but it heightened peoples expectations  

Edited January 2, 2023 by Going Underground

[Too Tall]

I don't know about 90+ wins (I'd like to believe) but I'll take our team over the Rays and Sox right now. The Yankees have better starting pitching and the Jays have a better-rounded team in my opinion. But I think we can play with both of them. Outside of Judge, who in the Yankee's lineup is a consistant threat? Pitch around his butt. And, we played the Jays tough last year. Play Ball! & Thanks for a positive thread!

[ThisIsBirdland]

6 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

I think the negative vibe was sort of self inflicted by some comments by John Angelos and by the GM. The liftoff comment, we are going to get a MOB and 1-3 type  starting pitcher  John Angelos saying the Orioles would be like the Rays with a higher payroll  Maybe it got misinterpreted by some and they meant not all in one year but it heightened peoples expectations  

Under promise and over deliver, it never fails. For as politically measured as Elias usually is in his rhetoric though, it's pretty surprising he let those comments slip. The comments came after trading Lopez and Mancini; my guess is he felt compelled to try to keep morale high for both fans and the players.

Either way, I still maintain no one will care if they can build on last season. If they take a step back this year, he'll face some real heat next off-season, and a big part of that will be from not doing a better job managing expectations. Because at the end of the day, I still think most people are happy with where the organization is and how quickly the rebuild has arrived.

[Since1984]

Definitely see this team running on all cylinders for at least good portions of this coming season and hope that pushes to a better record.

Main concern is last year’s roster had several waiver wire acquisition’s, during the rebuild, total roughy 15 war (bref).  It’s not likely to see them repeat that in ‘23, but I do hope Hays, Mountcastle etc, offset the difference. Also, depth and potential is better this season.

[theobird]

For me it all comes down to the two young pitchers (Grayson and DL Hall), and the return of John Means. If Means comes back mid year strong, and the two kids are looking good then we will be a real contender. I think it’s gonna happen, but admit those are nothing more than “ifs” right now.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

I think the negative vibe was sort of self inflicted by some comments by John Angelos and by the GM. The liftoff comment, we are going to get a MOB and 1-3 type  starting pitcher  John Angelos saying the Orioles would be like the Rays with a higher payroll  Maybe it got misinterpreted by some and they meant not all in one year but it heightened peoples expectations  

I will never again make the mistake of believing the O’s will actually be aggressive in the offseason.  I didn’t interpret the Elias comments as suggesting a ton of top-end activity, but yes I expected significantly more than they’ve done.  

[Going Underground]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I will never again make the mistake of believing the O’s will actually be aggressive in the offseason.  I didn’t interpret the Elias comments as suggesting a ton of top-end activity, but yes I expected significantly more than they’ve done.  

This was one of the things the Sun listed today as the five things Oriole fans can look forward to this season. 

This and if they have a good year and no one will care about what was said or what was done in free agency.If they go the other way of course frustration will be high.

5. A new long-term lease

Since first declaring in September 2019 the Orioles will play in Baltimore “as long as Fort McHenry is standing watch over the Inner Harbor,” team CEO and chairman John Angelos has reiterated that stance both publicly and privately. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred echoed it last month. Throughout the 2022 season, Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias hinted at upgrades planned for Camden Yards in the coming years.

But the organization enters 2023 with its lease to play at the ballpark set to expire at the end of the year. That upcoming deadline, though, offers hope for resolution. The Orioles have less than a month to exercise a one-time, five-year extension, and if Feb. 1 comes and goes without them doing so, their agreement with the Maryland Stadium Authority will end Dec. 31.

Comments from organization and league leaders suggest the team won’t reach that date without a long-term lease. In that sense, 2023 figures to be a big year for the future of the Orioles regardless of what happens on the field.

[ThisIsBirdland]

11 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

This was one of the things the Sun listed today as the five things Oriole fans can look forward to this season. 

This and if they have a good year and no one will care about what was said or what was done in free agency.If they go the other way of course frustration will be high.

5. A new long-term lease

Since first declaring in September 2019 the Orioles will play in Baltimore “as long as Fort McHenry is standing watch over the Inner Harbor,” team CEO and chairman John Angelos has reiterated that stance both publicly and privately. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred echoed it last month. Throughout the 2022 season, Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias hinted at upgrades planned for Camden Yards in the coming years.

But the organization enters 2023 with its lease to play at the ballpark set to expire at the end of the year. That upcoming deadline, though, offers hope for resolution. The Orioles have less than a month to exercise a one-time, five-year extension, and if Feb. 1 comes and goes without them doing so, their agreement with the Maryland Stadium Authority will end Dec. 31.

Comments from organization and league leaders suggest the team won’t reach that date without a long-term lease. In that sense, 2023 figures to be a big year for the future of the Orioles regardless of what happens on the field.

So this is saying they may not exercise the five year extension, but they will agree to a longer extension by December 31st? That'll be a wonderful distraction hanging over the organization until it gets resolved.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

So this is saying they may not exercise the five year extension, but they will agree to a longer extension by December 31st? That'll be a wonderful distraction hanging over the organization until it gets resolved.

I think the article is talking about reaching a deal before the February date.  It could have been written more clearly. 

[MarCakes21]

@Frobby maybe not the right venue for this, as it's more FA valuation, but in getting to a 90 win team, there's a thought process that 1 WAR = $8mil (or whatever the going rate is).  However, has anyone graded this on a curve?  Like yes, it'd be great if you had 26 2WAR players on your team but in reality, you'll have 10 guys in the 0-1 WAR bucket, 10 in the 1-3, and then need 6 guys in the 3+ (with 5-8 WAR needed).  Is WAR in these higher ends actually valued differently?