Is the Orioles evaluation process for bounce back players "sophisticated"?

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Got it. I agree they haven't really had success with this strategy for position players, but they also haven't really tried. Odor and Franco were brought in as placeholders. They were paid for replacement level and we got perhaps slightly worse than that. We'll see what happens with Frazier but it's a very small sample size we're talking about. Overall, I'd say they have a solid track record in evaluating talent

Ok, so tell me the major league hitting talent Elias has acquired that got better with the Orioles. Major league being they have at least 250 major league PAs under their belt when acquired.

I'll gladly concede if proven wrong. But really, your heart is telling you Elias and company are good at this aspect of evaluation, not the results.

[interloper]

Ah, another thread to argue about Frazier. 

Pass.

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Ok, so tell me the major league hitting talent Elias has acquired that got better with the Orioles. Major league being they have at least 250 major league PAs under their belt when acquired.

I'll gladly concede if proven wrong. But really, your heart is telling you Elias and company are good at this aspect of evaluation, not the results.

Villar.  Technicality that Elias didn't acquire him but he had a fantastic year while Elias was here.  Hasn't been able to come close to it anywhere since.  

[Tony-OH]

32 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

The O's bounceback targets in 2018-2021 were in a different context.  

The candidate choice itself is more than just the projection of a bounceback.  There is a budget and a willingness of the player angle to it as well.  Better candidates (at least in prior years) were just not offered contracts because of the budget.  This year there is a willingness to spend (at least to some degree).  

Iglesias was a 1yr/$3m deal.  He played in Cincy (every bit as hitter friendly as the old OPACY dimensions) in 2019 and posted an 83 OPS+.  In 2020 he posted a 157 OPS+ for the O's.  Not too shabby. 

Franco was a 1yr/$800k deal.  No dice.  

Galvis was a 1yr/$1.5m.  Another guy who moved from Cincy to Baltimore.  Posted an 84 OPS+ in 2020.  And a .720 OPS+ for the O's in 2021.  We traded him to Philly for a lottery ticket high K% guy who gives up HRs...

Odor for league minimum.  No bounceback, but no real regression/continued downward trend in performance either.  82 OPS+ in 2021 with NYY.  79 OPS+ in 2022 with us.

You missed the point totally. All you did is waste your time and give RZNJ a boner in order to rep someone who disagreed with me.

I never said these signings were the same. I 100% get where the Orioles were in the past vs where they are now when it comes to the value of these contracts and expectations.

All I'm saying, and no one one can prove otherwise because it's true, is that the Orioles have not identified one single guy who failed over a significant amount of at bats at the major league level before signing with the Orioles, who suddenly got significantly better offensively. Not one single guy.

Instead of hoping a major league minimum guy like Odor bounces back, now they are paying Frazier $8 million to do so. Perhaps he will. But if he does, he will be the first positional player to do so. 

This is the last I'll say on this since I've said my peace, but I have a lot more faith in Elias finding pitchers that Holt can help vs hitters.

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Ok, so tell me the major league hitting talent Elias has acquired that got better with the Orioles. Major league being they have at least 250 major league PAs under their belt when acquired.

I'll gladly concede if proven wrong. But really, your heart is telling you Elias and company are good at this aspect of evaluation, not the results.

Also Hanser Alberto.  While he hit for an empty high average and didn't walk a lot he was certainly better here than he was in Texas.  

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

Ah, another thread to argue about Frazier. 

Pass.

This is about their major league hitting evaluation process as a whole, not just about Frazier. 

[joelala]

1 hour ago, SurhoffFTW said:

Is 

Haha

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Lol.. Don't fall for the propaganda. That article was posted on August 13th.

From August 13th to the end of the year, Mateo slashed .200/.244/.320/.564. Guess the magic didn't stick.     

It was almost bizarre how suddenly Mateo’s light switch flipped on and then back off last year.  I honestly don’t know what to expect from him offensively in 2023.   The safest thing is to assume his overall numbers will be similar to last year’s, but he could be much worse or much better.  As a reminder:

- .660 OPS his first 32 games

- .435 OPS next 32 games

- .886 OPS next 50 games

- .483 OPS final 36 games

That is really drastic.

 

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Also Hanser Alberto.  While he hit for an empty high average and didn't walk a lot he was certainly better here than he was in Texas.  

 None of the guys you talked about meet what I'm talking about. Villar was not acquired by Elias, and Alberto was a waiver claim who need a chance at the big league level with a team that was going no where and had PAs to give. 

These are not major league bounce back guys. 

[clutch2113]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Lol.. Don't fall for the propaganda. That article was posted on August 13th.

From August 13th to the end of the year, Mateo slashed .200/.244/.320/.564. Guess the magic didn't stick.     

And from the All-Star break on he slashed .241/.280/.412/.692 - so he was on fire from mid-July to mid-August (thus the article)

Maybe the better comparison is his time with San Diego and his time in Baltimore:

San Diego:  .195/.235/.310/.545

Baltimore: .231/.278/.386/.664

Ultimately, I think every team is trying to find 'reclamation' projects to keep payroll down (We just traded Nevin to the Tigers - I'm sure they think he'll be a bounce back guy).  I am of the opinion the O's have had a better track record under Elias than other teams.  We have also had more opportunities open because we weren't really in Win-Now mode, so maybe it just appears better.  I guess we'll see what the results look like when we have less roster flexibility for these types of moves.

[interloper]

51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I really want to emphasize that just because I believe their decisions are sophisticated doesn’t mean that they will turn out to be right or that I personally agree with them.   

 

Bingo. 

We can have confidence they are doing just as good as anyone else evaluating potential bounceback candidates because we know they have analysts and scouts doing good work, led by one of the best in the business in Sig. We can have confidence their process is sophisticated. 

Doesn't mean it'll work! It's baseball in the end. Every team tries and fails at this to varying degrees. 

Not really much else to say about the topic, IMO. 

Edited January 3, 2023 by interloper

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Frobby said:

It was almost bizarre how suddenly Mateo’s light switch flipped on and then back off last year.  I honestly don’t know what to expect from him offensively in 2023.   The safest thing is to assume his overall numbers will be similar to last year’s, but he could be much worse or much better.  As a reminder:

- .660 OPS his first 32 games

- .435 OPS next 32 games

- .886 OPS next 50 games

- .483 OPS final 36 games

That is really drastic.

 

I think Mateo is who he is and that's a streaky hitter who when he's on is going to look like an all-star and when he's off couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat. 

Lots talent in there, and maybe he can put it all together, but my guess is there's a better chance his defense regresses more than his bat suddenly flourishes. 

Hard to not like watching him play SS though his 17 errors were a bit high.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

 None of the guys you talked about meet what I'm talking about. Villar was not acquired by Elias, and Alberto was a waiver claim who need a chance at the big league level with a team that was going no where and had PAs to give. 

These are not major league bounce back guys. 

Ok.  I might have missed it earlier but I'm not sure I saw a clear definition of what a "bounce back" player is.  As an example, was anyone expecting Rougned Odor to bounce back to his 2016 levels?  Or did we all kind of shrug our shoulders and say "Yeah, he's probably going to be lucky to OPS .650?

I saw you mention 250 at bats in the majors but I didn't see you mention what else counted as a bounce back candidate.  Did they have to reach a certain level here that they did playing somewhere else?

Cause if so, you're correct, they haven't been able to do it.  But I'm not sure that should really be a focal point of building this team, either.  

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, clutch2113 said:

And from the All-Star break on he slashed .241/.280/.412/.692 - so he was on fire from mid-July to mid-August (thus the article)

Maybe the better comparison is his time with San Diego and his time in Baltimore:

San Diego:  .195/.235/.310/.545

Baltimore: .231/.278/.386/.664

Ultimately, I think every team is trying to find 'reclamation' projects to keep payroll down (We just traded Nevin to the Tigers - I'm sure they think he'll be a bounce back guy).  I am of the opinion the O's have had a better track record under Elias than other teams.  We have also had more opportunities open because we weren't really in Win-Now mode, so maybe it just appears better.  I guess we'll see what the results look like when we have less roster flexibility for these types of moves.

Mateo was a good waiver claim, no doubt. I mean, I think he was an obvious waiver claim for the #1 team, but still, I'm not arguing that he and Urias were great waiver claims.

Saying that, he only had 121 major league PAs, so I would not consider him a bounce back guy. He was a young player that just needed an everyday major league chance, something the Orioles were able to give him.  

 

 

 

[BRobinsonfan]

1 hour ago, Explosivo said:

Comparing Frazier to those guys is laughable. We don't spend 8 million on a hunch. They see something and he has proven that in previous years. Those guys are not even close. Pretty silly man, but this is your forum and I'm happy that we have this forum to voice our fandom. I just don't get why people are down on this team given all we have seen.

How much is an appropriate amount to spend on a hunch?  Are modern Major League Baseball teams really operating on the "I've got a feeling about this guy" system of filing out the 40 man roster?