Is the Orioles evaluation process for bounce back players "sophisticated"?

[owknows]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

At least when he hits a home run we can say, “Frazier has left the building!”

 

It would be better if Frazier still had options.. I've had Howard Cosell's call of Foreman/Frazier ringing in my head since the signing... annnnd DOWN GOES FRAZIER! DOWN GOES FRAZIER!

Edited January 3, 2023 by owknows
spelling

[Yardball85]

18 minutes ago, owknows said:

Which is (as we have previously established) inversely proportional to OBP.

LOL - this is true 

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I have never remotely said their decisions are beyond questioning. That’s pretty much the opposite of what I’ve said: “I really want to emphasize that just because I believe their decisions are sophisticated doesn’t mean that they will turn out to be right or that I personally agree with them.”

Ok, I may be getting you mixed up with another poster, my mistake. 

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

 

The biggest problem in the warehouse comes from outside the warehouse - the budget.

 

There, something we agree on.

[tntoriole]

As I have said in the other thread, I supported the signing and I

believe Adam Frazier will outperform his deal. 
 

In 6 seasons Frazier had an OPS+ of 104 and had a standout AllStar season just in 2021 with a down season after changing leagues in 2022. 
 

Does Elias know this? Yes. Does he know more than this? Yes, if not him then Sig and his analytics team certainly do. 
 

Just as a nonstat fan, I like that for 6 seasons in NL his strikeouts were 12.7 percent,  10 percent lower than MLB norms and he has a flexible defensive capability.  I predict a 2 WAR season. 

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Just as a nonstat fan, I like that for 6 seasons in NL his strikeouts were 12.7 percent,  10 percent lower than MLB norms and he has a flexible defensive capability.  I predict a 2 WAR season. 

Thank you for publicly admitting that. Not everyone will admit their opinion is "non stat" based and more on your hope and his past performance from over three years ago.

I only hope this "analysis" is not what Elias/Sig uses for their sophisticated evaluation system. 

 

[AnythingO's]

I want an orange tee shirt with

pretty darn yech!

[RZNJ]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Thank you for publicly admitting that. Not everyone will admit their opinion is "non stat" based and more on your hope and his past performance from over three years ago.

I only hope this "analysis" is not what Elias/Sig uses for their sophisticated evaluation system. 

 

The first half of 2021 is over 3 years ago?    Is that the new math?

 

This is so tired.    Almost everyone has said they don't like the move to some degree but let's try and stick to the facts.   Frazier had a very good 2021 overall.   He had a great first half and a poor 2nd half but 2021 was a success.   He was over 3.5 WAR by both RWAR and FWAR.   Even with his poor 2nd half he had a good September.   To continually say he was only good 3 years ago or more is just disingenuous.

I concede that he was poor overall in the 2nd half of 2021.   However, players don't just usually lose it mid-season.   You can make a case that based on his 2022 and his drop in speed in 2022 that something might be up but let's not say he hasn't been good in 3 years.  

Edited January 3, 2023 by RZNJ

[RZNJ]

Adam Frazier OPS by month in 2021.

April - .785

May - .931

June - .871

July - .670

August - .562

September/Oct.  - .802

 

How many posters keep spinning 2021 as either non-existent, a bad year overall,  a player who completely lost it in the 2nd half and was never the same again?    All wrong.    He had a terrible August!!!

So, stop saying he hasn't been good in 3 years.  He was good in 2021.  3.6 FWAR.   4.1 RWAR.

If you don't like the signing and think 2022 is the real Adam Frazier you may be right but let's not twist things too much.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Adam Frazier OPS by month in 2021.

April - .785

May - .931

June - .871

July - .670

August - .562

September/Oct.  - .802

 

How many posters keep spinning 2021 as either non-existent, a bad year overall,  a player who completely lost it in the 2nd half and was never the same again?    All wrong.    He had a terrible August!!!

So, stop saying he hasn't been good in 3 years.  He was good in 2021.  3.6 FWAR.   4.1 RWAR.

If you don't like the signing and think 2022 is the real Adam Frazier you may be right but let's not twist things too much.

I get it but I have a hard time with the idea of a middle infielder over 30 having a big bounce back season.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I get it but I have a hard time with the idea of a middle infielder over 30 having a big bounce back season.

That and the Orioles have middle infield depth with players who can probably put up similar (or perhaps better numbers) than Frazier for a fraction of the price. 

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I get it but I have a hard time with the idea of a middle infielder over 30 having a big bounce back season.

I can see the skepticism.  I share it.  But he JUST turned 31.    Maybe middle infielders decline earlier than other players.   I don't know but 31 is not exactly the age I'd expect your average player to go into a free fall.

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I get it but I have a hard time with the idea of a middle infielder over 30 having a big bounce back season.

What do you consider a “big” bounce back?  Steamer has him at .693 OPS (compared to .612 last year and .728 career).   Marcel has him at .682.   Clay Davenport projects .679.  So all of those are predicting him to be considerably higher in 2023 than 2022, but also significantly below his career average.  My baseline assumption is in that range. Odor was at .632 last year.   

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

We also saw a 30 y/o who came off a season with what looked like neutral luck, near career low BB%, a pretty high strand rate, xERA and FIP higher than his actual 5.15 ERA.  He was/is a guy with pretty erratic outcomes (ERA over the years - 5.36, 5.09, 5.59, 4.33, 5.14, 5.83, 7.75, 4.11, 4.15, 7.02, 5.15, and just posted a 4.42).

Maybe we saw "just a guy" while they saw a more solid floor with a chance at more upside?  

Did they signed Odor expecting him to be a 1-3 WAR guy?  Nope. 

2021-22 MLB Free Agent Tracker - MLB Trade Rumors

I haven't researched every player, but a cursory glance seems to say a -0.4 WAR looks solid compared to the rest of the sum-$1m FA signings.

The biggest problem in the warehouse comes from outside the warehouse - the budget.

 

Disagree. The budget isn’t the problem. It’s how they want the budget spent.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

What do you consider a “big” bounce back?  Steamer has him at .693 OPS (compared to .612 last year and .728 career).   Marcel has him at .682.   Clay Davenport projects .679.  So all of those are predicting him to be considerably higher in 2023 than 2022, but also significantly below his career average.  My baseline assumption is in that range. Odor was at .632 last year.   

Say 2019 numbers?