Kostka: Os need to follow a different path

[Sports Guy]

 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Pickles]

Doesn't look all that different.

[owknows]

TLDR:

The O's need to stop garbage picking and make some trades.

(I agree)

[Yardball85]

13 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Doesn't look all that different.

They are significantly behind on making trades.  

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

They are significantly behind on making trades.  

And they're significantly ahead in getting talent off the waiver wire.  Which is weird cause I heard Elias was bad at that.

[interloper]

Yes we all support doing a kewl trade. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

And they're significantly ahead in getting talent off the waiver wire.  Which is weird cause I heard Elias was bad at that.

You could have a poor ratio of success but a much higher rate of attempts could still lead a larger number succeeding.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You could have a poor ratio of success but a much higher rate of attempts could still lead a larger number succeeding.

Well, he's got two 3 + WAR infielders, an "all-star closer", an even better relief pitcher, and another solid bullpen piece off waivers.  Who's done better?

[owknows]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

And they're significantly ahead in getting talent off the waiver wire.  Which is weird cause I heard Elias was bad at that.

The criteria for "picking talent off the waiver wire" was simply that the players picked play 50 games or pitched 50 innings of MLB ball for your team.

The degree to which they did or did not stink on ice is not factored in.

The O's have picked some shiny things off the scrap heap... but also a few brown squishy ones.

[Pickles]

Just now, owknows said:

The criteria for "picking talent off the waiver wire" was simply that the players picked play 50 games or pitched 50 innings of MLB ball for your team.

The degree to which they did or did not stink on ice is not factored in.

The O's have picked some shiny things off the scrap heap... but also a few brown squishy ones.

That's the nature of the waiver wire.  Doesn't change the fact: The Orioles have done extremely well on the waiver wire under Elias.  And again, I ask: Who is even in the same category?

Which, again is weird, because I read right here he was really bad at it.

[owknows]

11 minutes ago, Pickles said:

That's the nature of the waiver wire.  Doesn't change the fact: The Orioles have done extremely well on the waiver wire under Elias.  And again, I ask: Who is even in the same category?

Which, again is weird, because I read right here he was really bad at it.

I'm generally an Elias fan, so you won't hear me badmouthing his waiver wire successes.

But of course nobody's perfect... he misses once in awhile.

But that isn't really the potentially valuable point of the chart above.

He's been quite successful on the waiver wire.. and in the draft.

So much so in fact, that he has a rapidly approaching train wreck of a dilemma coming.

He has... Urias, Mateo, Henderson, Vavra, Westburg, Ortiz, Frazier, and soon Mayo and Holliday

All of these guys are aiming at a few infield positions.

Now he has to do what any successful talent accumulator would do when he acquires an untenable surplus. He's going to have to make some TRADES.

Edited January 6, 2023 by owknows
spelling

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, owknows said:

I'm generally an Elias fan, so you won't hear me badmouthing his waiver wire successes.

But of course nobody's perfect... he misses once in awhile.

But that isn't really the potentially valuable point of the chart above.

He's been quite successful on the waiver wire.. and in the draft.

So much so in fact, that he has a rapidly approaching train wreck of a dilemma coming.

He has... Urias, Mateo, Henderson, Vavra, Westburg, Ortiz, Frazier, and soon Mayo and Holliday

All of these guys are aiming at a few infield positions.

Now he has to do what any successful talent accumulator would do when he acquires an untenable surplus. He's going to have to make some TRADES.

Yes, I agree.  And I don't think it is any news to Elias either.  He always stated that very explicitly as part of the plan.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Yes, I agree.  And I don't think it is any news to Elias either.  He always stated that very explicitly as part of the plan.

My complaint with him is his unnecessary complication of his own logjam by adding Frazier to the mix.

We needed to see the young guys.

But there' not much left on this dead horse to beat, so I'll leave it there.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

My complaint with him is his unnecessary complication of his own logjam by adding Frazier to the mix.

We needed to see the young guys.

But there' not much left on this dead horse to beat, so I'll leave it there.

I think the roster is largely set.  I don't think there's a big trade coming before the season; I think he'd rather make that kind of move in season.

So there isn't much to do but sit back and see how the season unfolds.

[owknows]

Just now, Pickles said:

I think the roster is largely set.  I don't think there's a big trade coming before the season; I think he'd rather make that kind of move in season.

So there isn't much to do but sit back and see how the season unfolds.

I'm less worried about the season than I am the pileup of middle-infield boxcars happening in slow motion as we watch.... these are some talented guys.... the ones we have... and the ones who are coming... players whose value is being diminished by the sheer number of them, and our inability to get them all playing time...

So in the end.. when we finally do trade them... it will be under duress.... because we must. A situation other GM's will feast on. And instead of acting to make that situation better (playing the emerging talent, and trading in the short term)... we've acted to make the situation worse (adding a FA middle infielder and not getting the necessary AB's for the emerging talent).

This is a foreseeable and addressable problem.

And it is where I find fault with Elias.