What version of Cedric Mullins do you think we get this year?

[Frobby]

2021: .291/.360/.518, 37 2B and 30 HR, 137 OPS+, .931/.788 splits vs. RHP/LHP.

2022: .258/.318/.403, 32 2B and 16 HR, 104 OPS+, .782/.579 splits vs. RHP/LHP.

Do we get the 2021 version, the 2022 version, something in between, or something totally different?

Let me say first of all that I’d be completely satisfied with a repeat of the 2022 version, and I think that’s close to what we get.   If that’s how Mullins hits LHP this year, though, he’s going to find himself on the bench more often vs. lefty starters, and/or in the bottom third of the lineup.  Personally, I believe he tried to uppercut the ball a bit too much last year, and if he just goes back to trying to make hard contact, some of his HR power will return and his average will rise as well.  So, I’m hoping for some modest improvement on 2022, though as I said, I won’t complain about a repeat of 2022.   

Edited January 17, 2023 by Frobby

[Pickles]

I actually think he'll be a little bit better than 2022, so somewhere in between, but closer to 2022.

I'd like to see his OPS+ get above 110 annd his OBP get above 330.

His OPS was 700 in the first half last year, and over 750 in the second so he's trending in that direction.

[forphase1]

I think he regresses a bit more really,  and that his numbers aren't quite as good as last year.   Thats a big reason why I strongly support trading him if we get a decent offer, especially if we can get a #1 or a strong #2 starter.  I'd like to see him match last years numbers and would love to see him regain his 2021 form.  But i think the league has figured him out some,  and the pitch recognition and discipline we saw in 2021 were somewhat lacking.  I hope he turns it around,  but if I was betting I'd take the under on him matching his 2022 numbers.

[maybenxtyr]

I'd love to see that 2021 OBP...or something even close to it.

 

What I'm expecting though is a guy that is decent enough, but not good enough. Not meaning that last season was terrible, buy this team really needs some strong performances if they plan on being a WC contender.

[waroriole]

33 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I actually think he'll be a little bit better than 2022, so somewhere in between, but closer to 2022.

I'd like to see his OPS+ get above 110 annd his OBP get above 330.

His OPS was 700 in the first half last year, and over 750 in the second so he's trending in that direction.

Yeah that’s about what I’m expecting from him this year. With similar defense as to last year. 

[HakunaSakata]

Best case scenario I think Mullins has a 20/20 season. Worst case scenario, I think he repeats last season. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Best case scenario I think Mullins has a 20/20 season. Worst case scenario, I think he repeats last season. 

Best case he goes 20/20 worst case he goes 16/34?

 

I think he likely comes in with around the same level of performance as last year.  As always assuming health.

[Just Regular]

He'll continue to stretch his lead over John Farrell as the greatest 403rd overall draft pick in history.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=403&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick

He's an honored member of the Adley Supporting Cast - I believe as a group Hays-Mullins-Santander-Mountcastle are fairly steady, though when guys sprinkle in their Top Years they can flirt with or achieve All-Star berths.

Big culture year for Mullins as on the past weaker teams he could lead off everyday, but if Gunnar-Adley-Cowser are what we hope that door could close for him by this summer.     He has enough power he could deserve 5th/6th and need not fall all the way to the bottom.     I'm rooting for a mid-order placement Opening Day.

I did notice the DT 6-year projections had him holding his value very well - basically giving him 20-25 WAR across the next six, which it very much does not give to any of those other guys.     Mullins is distinct from Hays-Santander-Mountcastle handling an Up the Middle position well, for the time being at least.

Edited January 17, 2023 by Just Regular

[Aristotelian]

I think the shift rule may help him a bit but even without the shift I'd like to see him spray it around more. The 30/30 season may have actually been bad for his hitting long term. Could be wrong but I don't think we'll ever see 2021 again.

[Sports Guy]

Really need him to be a lot better Vs lefties. Another year like that vs lefties and he definitely enters in the “need to platoon” area.  

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Best case he goes 20/20 worst case he goes 16/34?

 

I think he likely comes in with around the same level of performance as last year.  As always assuming health.

I think the larger bases / 2 pick off limit rule will be enough to get him to 20+ SBs. Not sure about the power though...

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I think the larger bases / 2 pick off limit rule will be enough to get him to 20+ SBs. Not sure about the power though...

He had 34 SB last season.

I agree he has a shot at 20.

[HakunaSakata]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He had 34 SB last season.

I agree he has a shot at 20.

Whoops. So I'd say he "might" have a shot at 40 SBs this season then. So a slight uptick in SBs with 15 - 20 HRs.

[emmett16]

I have a feeling he puts up a carbon copy of last year.  I think that’s who he is and he is OK with that.  

[btdart20]

I think his BA and OBP will tick up.  In 3 less PAs in 2022, he saw 122 less pitches.  Working toward and extra pitch to hit per game.  He hammered 4seamers and splitters in 2021 and didn’t come close to repeating that in 2022 (of course pitchers pitched him differently too).  He has hit better when no shift was on for the last two years as well (almost .030 wOBA higher each year).  I can’t say his ISO/SLG will increase unless he can find a way to put pitchers in spots to key on FBs better.

I’ll guess a .275/.330/.405 type season with 30+ SB.  With a higher ceiling and more solid floor.  Still a top 5 CF.