Ryan Mountcastle 2023

[Just Regular]

A nice write-up over at FG today.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/patience-is-a-virtue-for-os-mountcastle/

The author unearthed the tidbit Mountcastle's 60 Barrel 2022 yielded the fewest HR in the Statcast era for a batter with that many.

Curious to see the glovework with another year of full time practice - story also had the detail that by FG reckoning, fielding helped his 2022 WAR grow a little even while his hitting results regressed.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Just Regular

[sportsfan8703]

Thanks for sharing. Another reason to be optimistic about 2023. Maybe we’ll get to revisit whether Mountcastle is a “beast” or not?  He’s only a year older than Adley. 

[MarCakes21]

Interesting that there's no more chatter here.  That fangraphs article puts his xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, barrel rate and average exit velo in the same category as Alvarez, Judge, Harper, Ohtani, and Riley.  Not quite as elite across the board, but still very good.  His hole was his patience, but even that may be trending better.

We talk about a guy who could be non-tendered in a year, but this is also a guy who could have the same impact as Austin Riley this season based on some metrics.  Fangraphs projects him for .255/.313/.448 which is similar as last year, but a decent jump in slugging.  However, his metrics show him something closer to Riley who had a .273 BA and .528 SLG last year.  I'd take those easily with a .313 OBP.

[HakunaSakata]

25 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Interesting that there's no more chatter here.  That fangraphs article puts his xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, barrel rate and average exit velo in the same category as Alvarez, Judge, Harper, Ohtani, and Riley.  Not quite as elite across the board, but still very good.  His hole was his patience, but even that may be trending better.

We talk about a guy who could be non-tendered in a year, but this is also a guy who could have the same impact as Austin Riley this season based on some metrics.  Fangraphs projects him for .255/.313/.448 which is similar as last year, but a decent jump in slugging.  However, his metrics show him something closer to Riley who had a .273 BA and .528 SLG last year.  I'd take those easily with a .313 OBP.

All good points, but after looking at his spray chart, I'm not sure Mountcastle has the same power upside as Riley. he definitely hits the ball hard...just not that far. Even when you factor in the homeruns he lost due to the new leftfield dimensions, that would have only bumped him up to 25ish.  I still think the key wit him is walk rate. If he could could show a bit more patience at the plate I think he'd have a very good change of being a good (if not great) first baseman. As is, I think he's pretty close to league average at the position. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-mountcastle-663624?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[Moose Milligan]

49 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Interesting that there's no more chatter here.  That fangraphs article puts his xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, barrel rate and average exit velo in the same category as Alvarez, Judge, Harper, Ohtani, and Riley.  Not quite as elite across the board, but still very good.  His hole was his patience, but even that may be trending better.

We talk about a guy who could be non-tendered in a year, but this is also a guy who could have the same impact as Austin Riley this season based on some metrics.  Fangraphs projects him for .255/.313/.448 which is similar as last year, but a decent jump in slugging.  However, his metrics show him something closer to Riley who had a .273 BA and .528 SLG last year.  I'd take those easily with a .313 OBP.

Yes, he needs to slug quite a bit if his patience is going to continue to be poor.

I'm expecting a better year from him, although he will have his terrible slumps.  His defense around the bag at first last year was a pleasant surprise, I think he'll be very solid there.

[Just Regular]

Two years ago, below was the basket of strong young position players all the same age as him I'd compared him with.

Crazy how just two full years of play can make perspectives like Keston Hiura is past him, but Yordan Alvarez is in his peer group look very silly.     Gleyber world domination hasn't really begun, so for the next couple years it'd be nice if Mountcastle could play him close to even for approaching the division leaders.

All these guys will be playing their Age 26 seasons this year.

How well he holds up against his fellow 24's these next 6 years (5 if we don't tender final Arb) will somewhat drive how good the team is.

A few very likely superior 24's in 2021 and forever and ever: Devers, Albies, Gleyber, Hiura, Eloy

A group of 9 others: Kyle Tucker, Trent Grisham, Willi Castro, Yordan Alvarez, Victor Robles, Alec Bohm, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Austin Riley, Nick Madrigal

With Mountcastle himself as the 10th guy, where do you peg him in that group?

[RZNJ]

Pet peeve.  In 753 innins at 1B Lewin Diaz has started 13 DPs.  In 1858 innings Mountcastle has started 7.   Advantage to the LH but this is the weakest part of Mountcastles defensive game.

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Pet peeve.  In 753 innins at 1B Lewin Diaz has started 13 DPs.  In 1858 innings Mountcastle has started 7.   Advantage to the LH but this is the weakest part of Mountcastles defensive game.

I think something like that could be suffering from a lot of noise.

[George Zuverink]

39 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think something like that could be suffering from a lot of noise.

Could be. The important missing piece of information is how many opportunities each of them had. Then it would be possible to see if the difference in success rates was significant.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, MarCakes21 said:

Interesting that there's no more chatter here.  That fangraphs article puts his xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, barrel rate and average exit velo in the same category as Alvarez, Judge, Harper, Ohtani, and Riley.  Not quite as elite across the board, but still very good.  His hole was his patience, but even that may be trending better.

We talk about a guy who could be non-tendered in a year, but this is also a guy who could have the same impact as Austin Riley this season based on some metrics.  Fangraphs projects him for .255/.313/.448 which is similar as last year, but a decent jump in slugging.  However, his metrics show him something closer to Riley who had a .273 BA and .528 SLG last year.  I'd take those easily with a .313 OBP.

I think there’s little chatter because most people here were already aware that Mountcastle’s expected stats were much better than his real ones.  And who’s talking about non-tendering him in a year?   I can’t remember hearing that from anyone and it’s a fairly preposterous suggestion even if Mountcastle repeats his 2022 actual numbers.   

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think something like that could be suffering from a lot of noise.

Could be, but Mountcastle is known as having a very weak arm and anecdotally I’ve seen some pretty weak throws to 2B from him.  

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think something like that could be suffering from a lot of noise.

Abreu started 12 last year.

Arraez started 5 in 65 games.

Hosmer started 10 in 102 games.

Goldschmit started 7 last year but is usually in double figures.

 

Mountcastle has started 7 in 218 games.   He doesn't throw well or get rid of the ball quickly.

 

[Sports Guy]

He needs to use all fields better. I’m not sure if he’s pull happy that he will be “luckier” in 2023, at least at home.

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

All good points, but after looking at his spray chart, I'm not sure Mountcastle has the same power upside as Riley. he definitely hits the ball hard...just not that far. Even when you factor in the homeruns he lost due to the new leftfield dimensions, that would have only bumped him up to 25ish.  I still think the key wit him is walk rate. If he could could show a bit more patience at the plate I think he'd have a very good change of being a good (if not great) first baseman. As is, I think he's pretty close to league average at the position. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-mountcastle-663624?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

I think Riley is a fair comp from the perspective of the type of hitter/approach they have.  Yes, Riley has more power.  But the K%, BB%, GB/FB% are pretty close.  Riley does square the ball up and hit more LDs than Mountcastle.  And that likely leads to more HRs and a higher BABIP (and higher BA).  Savant also shows that Riley would have hit 33 HRs in OPACY last year.  So, the difference is narrowed a little further.  

It's hard to see Mountcastle getting over 30 HR in 2023 without underlying changes (or binging on pitching away!).

Agreed on the BB% rate unlocking the next level for him.  And compared to his MiLB numbers (4.5-5% range), his BB% in the majors has been much better (7%).

[Big Mac]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He needs to use all fields better. I’m not sure if he’s pull happy that he will be “luckier” in 2023, at least at home.

His Pull% was actually 20.8% last year compared to the league average of 29.1%.  Now, based on what I've seen I agree that, especially when he gets into one of his funks, he seems to get very pull happy at times.  But overall, the stats indicate he is pretty good at using all fields.