Ryan Mountcastle 2023

[Ohfan67]

Just now, jrobb21613 said:

Who would you suggest  replace him?

Elias signed multiple 4A types (e.g., O'Hearn and Lester) and there's speculation in this thread and many others about Westburg, Kjerstad, Mayo, etc. I don't think Mountcastle is going to get replaced anytime soon (as in the next few months). They will give him a chance to have some good luck and they will let the minor leaguers get more at bats. Plus they have O'Hearn on the ML roster and available for a platoon if they decide that will help boost production at 1B. 

[jrobb21613]

7 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Elias signed multiple 4A types (e.g., O'Hearn and Lester) and there's speculation in this thread and many others about Westburg, Kjerstad, Mayo, etc. I don't think Mountcastle is going to get replaced anytime soon (as in the next few months). They will give him a chance to have some good luck and they will let the minor leaguers get more at bats. Plus they have O'Hearn on the ML roster and available for a platoon if they decide that will help boost production at 1B. 

I looked up Kjerstad and was surpised to see he's played 43 innings at 1st. His most at position.

[Can_of_corn]

And now he kills my chance to watch a perfect game!

Thanks Ryan!

[NCRaven]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And now he kills my chance to watch a perfect game!

Thanks Ryan!

One of his many flaws.

[Billy F-Face3]

7 hours ago, bpilktree said:

Yet he is still near the top in the league it hard hit balls.  So is he hitting balls out of the strike zone that hard or are the pitchers still throwing strikes.   Mountcastle is one of those guys that his analytical stats don’t equate for whatever reason.  Yes he has flaws but you look at the numbers and they should be better.  If you look at the list Tony posted you have guys that are free swingers like Mountcastle, guys that are super patient and an amazing eye like Juan Soto but then he has low barrel percentage for some reason and has struggled for last 2 years or so compared to when he came up.  I remember when he came up he looked like one of best pure hitters and amazing plate discipline I thought he would be like Mike Trout with the bat but it hasn’t translated over time for some reason.  You also have Wong who is patient hitter with decent barrel percentage and one of lowest swing and miss rates but numbers don’t translate.  

Mountcastle is currently 43rd in all of baseball in sweet spot  percentage only behind Adley, on the team.  He ranks 16th in baseball in velocity rate and .1 mph behind Judge.  Distance in balls hit he is 10th,  9th in balls hit over 95 mph.  He is 5th in barreled balls.  He is 7th worst in average compared to expected average. He has the 7th worst quality contact+walks+strikeouts in baseball.    His chase rate is the one glaring negative but his whiff rate is just slightly below average and same with k rate.  So even with him chasing more he is still making contact at average rate all in all. Then factoring in his exit velocity on balls in play he should be having much better success then he is.  

It's hard to be successful long term when you have a sucky batting average close to .200. Ask Rougned Odor how that worked out for him.

When you swing at junk, you get a low batting average/obp/success rate. I'd argue he gets more lucky when he makes contact swinging at junk a foot outside the strike zone. (It was lucky he made contact at all.) He has the talent to be so much better. Look at Barry Bonds. One of the greatest sluggers of all time (even if you take away the contraversy) and Barry Bonds walked more than just about every other hitter in his best seasons. He broke the Home Run record because he was willing to take his walks and force pitchers into situations those pitchers don't want to be in.

 

I will argue that the Orioles are getting more value from Mountcastle on defense right now than they are in his bad decisioned plate appearances.

Edited April 23, 2023 by Billy F-Face3

[Frobby]

Just now, Billy F-Face3 said:

It's hard to be successful long term when you have a sucky batting average close to .200. Ask Rougned Odor how that worked out for him.

When you swing at junk, you get a low batting average/obp/success rate. I'd argue he gets more lucky when he makes contact swinging at junk a foot outside the strike zone. He has the talent to be so much better. Look at Barry Bonds. One of the greatest sluggers of all time (even if you take away the contraversy) and he also walked more than just about every other hitter in his best seasons.

That’s nice, but Mountcastle’s career BA is .258.  That’s not close to .200.  In fact, it’s closer to .300.   His BA is low right now in a small sample size, like many other players.  It’s pretty meaningless compared to his career numbers.  

Sometimes I feel like the board is divided into two camps, those who ignore Mountcastle’s flaws and those who exagggerate them. 
 

[Billy F-Face3]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s nice, but Mountcastle’s career BA is .258.  That’s not close to .200.  In fact, it’s closer to .300.   His BA is low right now in a small sample size, like many other players.  It’s pretty meaningless compared to his career numbers.  

Sometimes I feel like the board is divided into two camps, those who ignore Mountcastle’s flaws and those who exagggerate them. 
 

He's batting .213 with a terrible .234 on base percentage because he's currently swinging at crap 8 inches outside the strike zone. "What have you done for me lately?"

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/stats/on-base-percentage?sortState=asc

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s nice, but Mountcastle’s career BA is .258.  That’s not close to .200.  In fact, it’s closer to .300.   His BA is low right now in a small sample size, like many other players.  It’s pretty meaningless compared to his career numbers.  

Sometimes I feel like the board is divided into two camps, those who ignore Mountcastle’s flaws and those who exagggerate them. 
 

I acknowledge his flaws and if he continues to play as he has I'll be in favor of cutting bait before paying him Arb 2 money.

He's got value at this price point even with his flaws.

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I acknowledge his flaws and if he continues to play as he has I'll be in favor of cutting bait before paying him Arb 2 money.

He's got value at this price point even with his flaws.

Sounds about right to me.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Billy F-Face3 said:

He's batting .213 with a terrible .234 on base percentage because he's currently swinging at crap 8 inches outside the strike zone. "What have you done for me lately?"

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/stats/on-base-percentage?sortState=asc

 

Way to ignore the huge amount of data showing how poor his luck has been. 

[Billy F-Face3]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Way to ignore the huge amount of data showing how poor his luck has been. 

Maybe in 2022 perhaps. But this is 2023 when he's been lucky to get a hit swinging at junk that far outside the strike zone. He could just as easily taken a base, and make a pitcher work harder for his teammates, as well as make the pitcher respect him.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Maybe in 2022 perhaps. But this is 2023 when he's been lucky to get a hit swinging at junk that far outside the strike zone. He could just as easily taken a base, and make a pitcher work harder for his teammates, as well as make the pitcher respect him.

Educate yourself.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-mountcastle-663624?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

[Billy F-Face3]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Educate yourself.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-mountcastle-663624?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Humble yourself.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Humble yourself.

I'm giving you data.

Actual data.

Not hyperbole. 

Nothing prideful in that.  I didn't create Statcast.  A 10 year old could find the data I provided for you.

[spleen1015]

SSS to argue against Mountcastle right now. It's just part of the ebbs and flows of the game. He's not going to hit .200 for the year amd his OBP is going to be around .300.