Keith Law’s O’s top 20

[Frobby]

1. Henderson

2. Rodriguez

3. Holliday

4. Westburg

5. Hall

6. Ortiz

7. Cowser

8. Norby

9. Beavers

10. Mayo

11. Kjerstad

12. Fabian

13. Povich

14. Wagner

15. Basallo 

16. Johnson 

17. Bescome

18. Rom

19. Young

20. B. Tavera

[Frobby]

A bit on Norby:

“If the top 100 were more about players I just love to watch play, Norby would have been on it, easily. He can hit, he plays hard, and he seems like he’d knock over his own grandmother just to take an extra base…He’s a solid regular, a ‘just missed the just missed list’ guy, and someone I really believe strongly will succeed, even though I don’t see a high ceiling for him.”

Also mentions “raves from teammates and coaches.”

[LTO's]

Sleeper

There are a lot of guys here with upside, even among the college draftees, but Basallo has the best chance to go from outside the top 100 to squarely on the list, thanks to his position and his present skill with the bat.

[btdart20]

He's the low man on Mayo.  I wonder how much that has to do with sticking/not sticking at 3B vs. hitting?

High man on Rom and Tavera.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

He's the low man on Mayo.  I wonder how much that has to do with sticking/not sticking at 3B vs. hitting?

High man on Rom and Tavera.

Just goes to show how subjective this stuff is.    One guys has Mayo at #4.  Another has him at #10.   One guy has Cowser at #4 and another has him at #12.    I think most of the worry on Mayo is his hitting.    If he hits, the power is there and he'll be a plus 3B, RF, or even 1B.

[Tony-OH]

Looks pretty close to mine so I think it's a pretty good list! lol

Probably biggest difference is Mayo with him not liking him as much as me, but I've been bullish on Mayo since 2021.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Just goes to show how subjective this stuff is.    One guys has Mayo at #4.  Another has him at #10.   One guy has Cowser at #4 and another has him at #12.    I think most of the worry on Mayo is his hitting.    If he hits, the power is there and he'll be a plus 3B, RF, or even 1B.

For those FCL/DSL guys, it's basically about how much stock you put into rumors and one-off reports. 

I'm sure there are good sources here and there, but if you told me Tavera or Basallo are top guys in our system in 1-2 years, I'd believe it. I'd also believe they're somewhere down the list, but still above Maikol Hernandez. Lol.

[Tony-OH]

23 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

For those FCL/DSL guys, it's basically about how much stock you put into rumors and one-off reports. 

I'm sure there are good sources here and there, but if you told me Tavera or Basallo are top guys in our system in 1-2 years, I'd believe it. I'd also believe they're somewhere down the list, but still above Maikol Hernandez. Lol.

You hope you are talking about some others because if you think that's how I do the FCL/DSL guys I think you are underestimating the amount of effort that goes into analyzing these guys.

Now, are they the hardest to analyze because of their youth and competition, sure, but I sure don't go off rumors. Give us a little credit here.

 

[btdart20]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You hope you are talking about some others because if you think that's how I do the FCL/DSL guys I think you are underestimating the amount of effort that goes into analyzing these guys.

Now, are they the hardest to analyze because of their youth and competition, sure, but I sure don't go off rumors. Give us a little credit here.

 

  You definitely do the digging and watching!  

We're good at making our own rumors and hype reading between the lines!

[LookinUp]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You hope you are talking about some others because if you think that's how I do the FCL/DSL guys I think you are underestimating the amount of effort that goes into analyzing these guys.

Now, are they the hardest to analyze because of their youth and competition, sure, but I sure don't go off rumors. Give us a little credit here.

 

I followed that up with "I'm sure there are good sources here and there." 

My point is that there's much less data and video, not to mention guys that have a lot of development to do, so accurate rankings are very hard. They could boom or bust.

[Tony-OH]

17 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I followed that up with "I'm sure there are good sources here and there." 

My point is that there's much less data and video, not to mention guys that have a lot of development to do, so accurate rankings are very hard. They could boom or bust.

You made that point by saying evaluators go off rumors and one off reports. That's inaccurate when it comes to my rankings and information.

[Sydnor]

4 hours ago, btdart20 said:

He's the low man on Mayo.  I wonder how much that has to do with sticking/not sticking at 3B vs. hitting?

High man on Rom and Tavera.

Here is Law’s basis:

Mayo is 6-5 and takes a super wide stance at the plate, but hits more for average and OBP right now, without the big power (yet) you’d expect from him. He showed a good approach in High A but struggled with offspeed stuff in Double A, even in the strike zone, although at just 20 he was quite young for the level. He’s huge for a third baseman and I think he has to move to first or maybe right field in time, but regardless of position, it’ll come down to his ability to make contact even with some natural length to the swing. He’s younger than any of his peers in this system, though, so he has time and more room to project on the bat.

I think he’s low on Mayo, but we’ll see!

 

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

Here is Law’s basis:

Mayo is 6-5 and takes a super wide stance at the plate, but hits more for average and OBP right now, without the big power (yet) you’d expect from him. He showed a good approach in High A but struggled with offspeed stuff in Double A, even in the strike zone, although at just 20 he was quite young for the level. He’s huge for a third baseman and I think he has to move to first or maybe right field in time, but regardless of position, it’ll come down to his ability to make contact even with some natural length to the swing. He’s younger than any of his peers in this system, though, so he has time and more room to project on the bat.

I think he’s low on Mayo, but we’ll see!

 

I'm not sure if Keith is talking about consistency or not but Mayo has exhibited big power if you've seen most of his home runs.

[LookinUp]

17 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

You made that point by saying evaluators go off rumors and one off reports. That's inaccurate when it comes to my rankings and information.

Understood. From now on I'll make sure to specify in all of my posts in Keith Law threads that I'm not specifically referring to you.

[EdwinRip]

He certainly showed big power at Aberdeen-Bowie not so much.  It was also a small sample and he’s young for the level so I’m thinking his power will improve at Bowie this year.