Start of Spring ZiPS

[Just Regular]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-start-of-spring-zips-projected-standings-american-league/

First time I've seen an 80-win forecast for the Orioles this offseason (outside of here, naturally) - it maps to 28.7% playoff odds in Szymborski's simulation.

85 wins is its guess for 6th best record in the league.

[Frobby]

So, we’ve moved up two wins since Szymborski did this exercise at the beginning of the offseason.   Feels about right.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/

Yankees +4, Toronto flat, Tampa -2, Red Sox -3.   

Edited February 8, 2023 by Frobby

[CaptainRedbeard]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, we’ve moved up two wins since Szymborski did this exercise at the beginning of the offseason.   Feels about right.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/

Yankees +4, Toronto flat, Tampa -2, Red Sox -3.   

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

+2 wins from Gibson, Irvin and McCann, +0 wins from Frazier 

[Moose Milligan]

Elias in the Warehouse like 

 

 

[HakunaSakata]

23 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Elias in the Warehouse like 

 

 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

+2 wins from Gibson, Irvin and McCann, +0 wins from Frazier 

Ah!  We got jokes!  I was stumped trying to find the win values earlier...  I should have known better...

[ChipTait]

The Astros winning 90 games makes them best in the AL?  I guess balancing out the schedule affects every team a little bit.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, ChipTait said:

The Astros winning 90 games makes them best in the AL?  I guess balancing out the schedule affects every team a little bit.

The way that projections work, the projected best record will never be as good as the actual best record.  Remember, they’re playing the hypothetical season for each team a million times and taking the average result.   But not every team will have the average result.  You can pretty much book that some team will win 95+.  Probably 2-3 will.  

[Big Mac]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

The way that projections work, the projected best record will never be as good as the actual best record.  Remember, they’re playing the hypothetical season for each team a million times and taking the average result.   But not every team will have the average result.  You can pretty much book that some team will win 95+.  Probably 2-3 will.  

Right, and on the flip side, not every AL team is going to win at least 70 games.  Oakland may not win 60. 

[Frobby]

I got curious what team led its league in wins with  the lowest number of wins over a full 162 game season.  Best I can tell, it’s the 2007 Diamondbacks and Rockies, who led the entire NL with 90 wins.   I didn’t find a single team that led the AL with fewer than 95; several teams did it with 95.   There have been a handful of times when the NL leader had under 95, but not often.  

In that 2007 NL season, no team won fewer than 71 games.   Fun year for NL fans. 
 

[TommyPickles]

I think 28% chance of a playoff birth sounds about right. I'm a little more hopeful, but that's my orange colored glasses.

What doesn't sound right is all five teams in the AL East being within 9-10 wins of each other at the end of the season. I don't see it.

I think someone is going to win more than 89 games. I don't think Boston is going to win 79 games.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

I think 28% chance of a playoff birth sounds about right. I'm a little more hopeful, but that's my orange colored glasses.

What doesn't sound right is all five teams in the AL East being within 9-10 wins of each other at the end of the season. I don't see it.

I think someone is going to win more than 89 games. I don't think Boston is going to win 79 games.

Again, it is almost certain not to happen that way.  These are “average” results from playing a hypothetical season 1,000,000 times.   In real life, some teams will exceed their “average” projections by significant amounts. others will fall short of them.  As I mentioned the other day, no team in the AL is projected to win more than 90 games, but the lowest win total ever to lead the AL is 95.   It’s very likely that it will take 95+ wins to lead the AL this year, we just don’t know for sure which teams will do it.  

[eddie83]

Not sure how many times he updates it but he says they get 19.9 teams on average correct a year based on Vegas over/under totals the last decade. That’s 66%, crazy.  Of course you would have to make 30 bets to take advantage of it. 

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Again, it is almost certain not to happen that way.  These are “average” results from playing a hypothetical season 1,000,000 times.   In real life, some teams will exceed their “average” projections by significant amounts. others will fall short of them.  As I mentioned the other day, no team in the AL is projected to win more than 90 games, but the lowest win total ever to lead the AL is 95.   It’s very likely that it will take 95+ wins to lead the AL this year, we just don’t know for sure which teams will do it.  

I will say I don’t think there will be a 100 win team in baseball this year.