2023 Ongoing Lineup Thread

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

How am I moving the goalposts?

YOU said 569 At bats for YOUR hand picked example.

O'Hearn isn't even close to that.

It's your goalpost.

You picked one your boy hasn't reached.

My God how did you not detect the sarcasm in my post? The whole point was to show how absurd your "pick an AB" line was. 

[Spy Fox]

2 hours ago, dystopia said:

That’s conjecture. The point is he should be given the opportunity. If he stinks it up, then stop playing him vs. lefties. But Hyde hasn’t even given him the chance. With what limited ABs he has had against them, he’s done pretty well. 
 

There just isn’t a rational argument to have him keep riding the bench every time there’s a LHP starting. 

It's also conjecture, but with less evidence, to predict he's now a lefty masher. In his career, his OPS vs lefties runs about 150 points behind his overall OPS. 

Let's say Ryan's improvements are fully real. It'd still be reasonable to apply that historic split to your expectations... subtract 150 points from his .830 OPS this year and you get a .680 OPS as a guess at his improved OPS vs lefties in a larger sample.

 I think wanting better than a .680 from your 1b/DH is rational enough. And that's before you incorporate the need to get righty bench guys like Mateo/Urias/McKenna enough playing time. It's a different calculation if O'Hearn is a rising youngster and they're playing Tyler Nevin over him. 

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, Spy Fox said:

It's also conjecture, but with less evidence, to predict he's now a lefty masher. In his career, his OPS vs lefties runs about 150 points behind his overall OPS. 

Let's say Ryan's improvements are fully real. It'd still be reasonable to apply that historic split to your expectations... subtract 150 points from his .830 OPS this year and you get a .680 OPS as a guess at his improved OPS vs lefties in a larger sample.

 I think wanting better than a .680 from your 1b/DH is rational enough. And that's before you incorporate the need to get righty bench guys like Mateo/Urias/McKenna enough playing time. It's a different calculation if O'Hearn is a rising youngster and they're playing Tyler Nevin over him. 

Nowhere did I claim he was suddenly a lefty masher. I just said he should be starting more games against LHP. 

[Spy Fox]

20 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Nowhere did I claim he was suddenly a lefty masher. I just said he should be starting more games against LHP. 

Ok, you can change the phrase "now he's a lefty masher" to "now he hits lefties well." That doesn't change the overall argument. 

By the way, I have no problem with O'Hearn getting an occasional start vs LHP. But I think it's correct to mostly platoon him, and just ignoring the basic facts to say it's inexcusable to platoon him. 

[dystopia]

7 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Ok, you can change the phrase "now he's a lefty masher" to "now he hits lefties well." That doesn't change the overall argument. 

By the way, I have no problem with O'Hearn getting an occasional start vs LHP. But I think it's correct to mostly platoon him, and just ignoring the basic facts to say it's inexcusable to platoon him. 

Except I didn’t say that either, at least not in such a broad sense. I said he’d hit well in the very limited opportunities he’s had against LHP this year. That’s not an opinion — that is a fact. And I said that to make the point that there’s no evidence his improvement against RHP this year won’t translate over to LHP as well. 
 

I will never agree to platooning the player with the highest OPS on the team, sorry. I think that is idiotic. He should be given opportunities against LHP. If he does poorly, THEN you can platoon him.

 

 

[Spy Fox]

7 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Except I didn’t say that either, at least not in such a broad sense. I said he’d hit well in the very limited opportunities he’s had against LHP this year. That’s not an opinion — that is a fact. And I said that to make the point that there’s no evidence his improvement against RHP this year won’t translate over to LHP as well. 
 

I will never agree to platooning the player with the highest OPS on the team, sorry. I think that is idiotic. He should be given opportunities against LHP. If he does poorly, THEN you can platoon him.

If you're willing to claim it's idiotic to platoon him, I'd think you'd be willing to predict he'd hit lefties well. And he wouldn't just have to carry over his improvement, he'd have to double it vs lefties to be a good DH/1b against lefties. That's how bad he's been vs lefties in his career, and that's why KC platooned him too. Some guys are better as platoon guys and that's ok. I think part of the O's success this year is that they have so many good players they can deploy each one where they'll perform best. The "try it til they fail" approach is a better option on weaker teams where you want to see what sticks. When you're as good as the current O's and you've got a roster and a half worth of MLB quality players, you want to be predicting what has the best chance to stick and going with that.

[DirtyBird]

We spotted O’Hearn nicely tonight

[Malike]

20 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

We spotted O’Hearn nicely tonight

It's just a 1 out single if Frazier doesn't double.

Edited September 6, 2023 by Malike

[dystopia]

7 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

If you're willing to claim it's idiotic to platoon him, I'd think you'd be willing to predict he'd hit lefties well. And he wouldn't just have to carry over his improvement, he'd have to double it vs lefties to be a good DH/1b against lefties. That's how bad he's been vs lefties in his career, and that's why KC platooned him too. Some guys are better as platoon guys and that's ok. I think part of the O's success this year is that they have so many good players they can deploy each one where they'll perform best. The "try it til they fail" approach is a better option on weaker teams where you want to see what sticks. When you're as good as the current O's and you've got a roster and a half worth of MLB quality players, you want to be predicting what has the best chance to stick and going with that.

Yeah I do think he’d perform okay vs. lefties if he was given the opportunity given his overall improvement this year. CoC twisted himself into knots trying to claim this year was a flash in the pan but considering how consistent he’s been all year and the fact that he credits adjustments he’s made since coming over here, I think it’s more likely that he’s turned a corner. 

[waroriole]

12 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Yeah I do think he’d perform okay vs. lefties if he was given the opportunity given his overall improvement this year. CoC twisted himself into knots trying to claim this year was a flash in the pan but considering how consistent he’s been all year and the fact that he credits adjustments he’s made since coming over here, I think it’s more likely that he’s turned a corner. 

Almost everyone with any sense thinks this is an outlier year for OHearn. He’s never hit anything close to this before. He’s 30. Typically, guys don’t have the light flip on so late into their careers. 
 

He also has a really low walk rate and his BA is held up by an unsustainable .355 BABIP. 

[btdart20]

7 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

We spotted O’Hearn nicely tonight

7 hours ago, Malike said:

It's just a 1 out single if Frazier doesn't double.

Roster construct to maximize the individual WAR/matchups has been a strength this year.

[dystopia]

2 hours ago, waroriole said:

Almost everyone with any sense thinks this is an outlier year for OHearn. He’s never hit anything close to this before. He’s 30. Typically, guys don’t have the light flip on so late into their careers. 
 

He also has a really low walk rate and his BA is held up by an unsustainable .355 BABIP. 

AKA you think it's an outlier. I've bookmarked this thread and I WILL call you out when you're proven wrong.

[Can_of_corn]

11 hours ago, dystopia said:

My God how did you not detect the sarcasm in my post? The whole point was to show how absurd your "pick an AB" line was. 

Well, you are so dim about all of this that it isn't hard to miss your attempt at sarcasm.

HE IS NOT A GOOD COMP.

He had three seasons with Pit in which he had an OPS+ between 94-96.  That's slightly below average, in case you don't know what that stat means.

He than had over a full season with the Blue Jays playing at a similar level.

O'Hearn had an OPS+ between 65 and 73 in his last four seasons with the Royals.

It's not a good comp, it's not even a decent comp.

It is ludicrous to toss aside data.  Guys go on heaters every year.

[dystopia]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Well, you are so dim about all of this that it isn't hard to miss your attempt at sarcasm.

HE IS NOT A GOOD COMP.

He had three seasons with Pit in which he had an OPS+ between 94-96.  That's slightly below average, in case you don't know what that stat means.

He than had over a full season with the Blue Jays playing at a similar level.

O'Hearn had an OPS+ between 65 and 73 in his last four seasons with the Royals.

It's not a good comp, it's not even a decent comp.

It is ludicrous to toss aside data.  Guys go on heaters every year.

What is dim is you thinking I was comparing O'Hearn to Bautista rather than mocking you for your suggestion that there's a specific number of at bats that separates a SSS from "reality". 

[dystopia]

2 hours ago, waroriole said:

Almost everyone with any sense thinks this is an outlier year for OHearn. He’s never hit anything close to this before. He’s 30. Typically, guys don’t have the light flip on so late into their careers. 
 

He also has a really low walk rate and his BA is held up by an unsustainable .355 BABIP. 

And further to my last post, I'm not even sure what the long term sustainability of O'Hearn's numbers has to do with my original point. The point is he's hitting well and has been all year, and that alone justifies giving him ABs against LHP.