Heston, Terrin and Lewin

[CaptainRedbeard]

Based on the Orioles’ insistence to play Odor last year and signing Frazier this offseason, it’s clear they don’t view Vavra as a viable defender at 2B other than as a deep reserve, or perhaps a 4th infielder at best.

As an OF, it doesn’t seem like he has enough athleticism or arm to be anything other than average in LF. He’d probably also be fine at 1B. However, he doesn’t look like anything more than a 100-ish wRC+ bat with how little power he’s shown, even with the excellent BB profile and decent K rates.

I unfortunately think his only paths to becoming more than a fringy 26th man Norfolk shuttle guy are to either (1) vastly improve his 2B/3B defense (in the eyes of the Orioles at least), which only really helps him if he finds his way to another organization given the depth we have there, or to (2) tap into more power and become more of a 12-15 homer guy, along with perhaps solidifying that he can be more than passable in LF/1B. I don’t particularly like his odds at either route but I think (2) probably is his best shot.

Either way, Vavra needs to be playing regularly to improve and he’s not needed at the MLB level with this roster construction to start the year (barring injury). He should be ticketed for Norfolk. I think the Orioles’ decision for the last bench spot will be between Diaz, Cordero, Mazara and O’Hearn, and will be heavily influenced not only by how they look this spring but by who they want to retain in the organization. I think O’Hearn is probably a lock for AAA since he will want to retain his MLB salary and we’ll know we can stash him that way, but the others probably have opt outs. They’ll keep whichever of the other three they want to hang on most as the 26th man, and I think Diaz has the inside track right now, followed by Cordero, and lastly Mazara, in large part based on that being descending order of how well they can play 1B (Diaz exceptionally, Cordero still learning, and Mazara not at all). 

[RZNJ]

26 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Based on the Orioles’ insistence to play Odor last year and signing Frazier this offseason, it’s clear they don’t view Vavra as a viable defender at 2B other than as a deep reserve, or perhaps a 4th infielder at best.

As an OF, it doesn’t seem like he has enough athleticism or arm to be anything other than average in LF. He’d probably also be fine at 1B. However, he doesn’t look like anything more than a 100-ish wRC+ bat with how little power he’s shown, even with the excellent BB profile and decent K rates.

I unfortunately think his only paths to becoming more than a fringy 26th man Norfolk shuttle guy are to either (1) vastly improve his 2B/3B defense (in the eyes of the Orioles at least), which only really helps him if he finds his way to another organization given the depth we have there, or to (2) tap into more power and become more of a 12-15 homer guy, along with perhaps solidifying that he can be more than passable in LF/1B. I don’t particularly like his odds at either route but I think (2) probably is his best shot.

Either way, Vavra needs to be playing regularly to improve and he’s not needed at the MLB level with this roster construction to start the year (barring injury). He should be ticketed for Norfolk. I think the Orioles’ decision for the last bench spot will be between Diaz, Cordero, Mazara and O’Hearn, and will be heavily influenced not only by how they look this spring but by who they want to retain in the organization. I think O’Hearn is probably a lock for AAA since he will want to retain his MLB salary and we’ll know we can stash him that way, but the others probably have opt outs. They’ll keep whichever of the other three they want to hang on most as the 26th man, and I think Diaz has the inside track right now, followed by Cordero, and lastly Mazara, in large part based on that being descending order of how well they can play 1B (Diaz exceptionally, Cordero still learning, and Mazara not at all). 

Diaz most certainly doesn't have an opt out. He's also the least flexible of all, defensively.   He also would be have to be added to the 40 man but has no options so he can't play the shuttle game with him.  He is the least likely of the 4 to make the team.

Vavra has shown 10-15 home run power in the minors.  Posters define him as powerless based on his MLB SSS.  

Power hitter O'Hearn had 1 home run in 134 AB's last year.

Franchy Cordero had 8 in 242 AB's.

O'Hearn was acquired to be AAA depth in case of a long term injury to Mountcastle.  

Cordero has a chance but he's not plus defensively anywhere either, needs to be added to the 40-man, and can't be demoted without being lost.

Vavra affords us the most defensive versatility,  the most roster flexibility,  and the best AB you'll get from the 4 candidates.  If he can play a passable 1B the job is his.

[waroriole]

25 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Diaz most certainly doesn't have an opt out. He's also the least flexible of all, defensively.   He also would be have to be added to the 40 man but has no options so he can't play the shuttle game with him.  He is the least likely of the 4 to make the team.

Vavra has shown 10-15 home run power in the minors.  Posters define him as powerless based on his MLB SSS.  

Power hitter O'Hearn had 1 home run in 134 AB's last year.

Franchy Cordero had 8 in 242 AB's.

O'Hearn was acquired to be AAA depth in case of a long term injury to Mountcastle.  

Cordero has a chance but he's not plus defensively anywhere either, needs to be added to the 40-man, and can't be demoted without being lost.

Vavra affords us the most defensive versatility,  the most roster flexibility,  and the best AB you'll get from the 4 candidates.  If he can play a passable 1B the job is his.

How has Vavra shown 10-15 HR power in the minors? His career high in HR was 10 in A ball. This is just made up nonsense. 

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, waroriole said:

How has Vavra shown 10-15 HR power in the minors? His career high in HR was 10 in A ball. This is just made up nonsense. 

21 homers in 244 minor league games.   That’s 1 homer every 12 games.  I said between 10 and 15.  You mentioned a season where he had 10 and that was a season he only played 102 games.   

[oriole]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Diaz most certainly doesn't have an opt out. He's also the least flexible of all, defensively.   He also would be have to be added to the 40 man but has no options so he can't play the shuttle game with him.  He is the least likely of the 4 to make the team.

Vavra has shown 10-15 home run power in the minors.  Posters define him as powerless based on his MLB SSS.  

Power hitter O'Hearn had 1 home run in 134 AB's last year.

Franchy Cordero had 8 in 242 AB's.

O'Hearn was acquired to be AAA depth in case of a long term injury to Mountcastle.  

Cordero has a chance but he's not plus defensively anywhere either, needs to be added to the 40-man, and can't be demoted without being lost.

Vavra affords us the most defensive versatility,  the most roster flexibility,  and the best AB you'll get from the 4 candidates.  If he can play a passable 1B the job is his.

I see what you’re saying about Diaz but it’s also true that despite having the least defensive versatility, he has the most defensive value considering the rest of that group are not really defense first guys. Diaz also has a higher ceiling for offense than all except maybe Vavra. But the O’s have shown that Vavra is not a real option for them in any capacity. I don’t know why they didn’t trade him this offseason, they obviously don’t like him. 
 

All that to say, I like Diaz as the last guy. Mountcastle isn’t great defensively and has been trending down since his debut. Diaz can at least play a great 1B, doesn’t have to worry as much about the new dimensions, and has some potential. If I had to choose between Mountcastle and Diaz, the obvious answer is Mountcastle. But I like Diaz a lot and hope to see him put it together here

[CaptDbog]

17 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Kjerstad is 5 of 6 with 2 Home runs.  His batting average is .833; on base percentage .833; and on base + slugging is 2.666.  But, he hasn't taken a walk so...BUST!  

I'm just happy Heston is healthy and playing.  I'm really pulling for him.  

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, oriole said:

I see what you’re saying about Diaz but it’s also true that despite having the least defensive versatility, he has the most defensive value considering the rest of that group are not really defense first guys. Diaz also has a higher ceiling for offense than all except maybe Vavra. But the O’s have shown that Vavra is not a real option for them in any capacity. I don’t know why they didn’t trade him this offseason, they obviously don’t like him. 
 

All that to say, I like Diaz as the last guy. Mountcastle isn’t great defensively and has been trending down since his debut. Diaz can at least play a great 1B, doesn’t have to worry as much about the new dimensions, and has some potential. If I had to choose between Mountcastle and Diaz, the obvious answer is Mountcastle. But I like Diaz a lot and hope to see him put it together here

Maybe you answered your own question.  Why didn’t they get rid of Vavra?   Now, he’s in camp playing 2B, 3B, and LF.  If he gets some time at 1B, that would be interesting.  
 

I do think Diaz has some upside.  So why did the Orioles put him on waivers two separate times?   Because their interest in Diaz is having him play everyday at Norfolk and seeing if he can take his game up a level.  Same plan for Daz Cameron.

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Diaz most certainly doesn't have an opt out. He's also the least flexible of all, defensively.   He also would be have to be added to the 40 man but has no options so he can't play the shuttle game with him.  He is the least likely of the 4 to make the team.

Vavra has shown 10-15 home run power in the minors.  Posters define him as powerless based on his MLB SSS.  

Power hitter O'Hearn had 1 home run in 134 AB's last year.

Franchy Cordero had 8 in 242 AB's.

O'Hearn was acquired to be AAA depth in case of a long term injury to Mountcastle.  

Cordero has a chance but he's not plus defensively anywhere either, needs to be added to the 40-man, and can't be demoted without being lost.

Vavra affords us the most defensive versatility,  the most roster flexibility,  and the best AB you'll get from the 4 candidates.  If he can play a passable 1B the job is his.

Actually you’re right that Diaz doesn’t have an opt-out, since he was outrighted and not signing a contract this offseason. So I think that definitely hurts his chances of making the team. The 40 man spot shouldn’t matter though, as we’ll be able to open up two spots by moving Means and Seth Johnson to the 60-day IL. In his radio appearance during one of the spring training games, Elias confirmed that Mazara has an opt out by virtue of his playing time and alluded to others having opt outs as well. I assume that is Cordero, since he signed a split MLB/minors contract - he can probably choose to take the minors assignment or opt out. 

I do think Vavra has the potential for 10-15 homer pop - he’s not some super small guy and he has a nice swing plane for it, it’s not an overly contact oriented swing typical of many guys that don’t hit for much power.  I think he could certainly have Mullins-type pull power if he was hunting for that more. Based on his MLB approach last year I think the issue is he tries to take every fastball to left field and hasn’t shown the ability to turn on the inside/inside-middle heaters.

You’re right that he hit for more power in the minors but he hasn’t done that at all in his 300ish PAs at AAA/MLB. He has ISOs of .127 and .079 in AAA/MLB last year and Steamer/ZIPS only project him to about .110 this year. That’s not going to get it done with what it looks like his defensive limitations are going to be. He’s probably still the best choice for the 26th man anyway, but I think the upside is still there for more power against higher level pitched with more ABs and he’s not going to get those as the 26th man on the MLB bench. I’d rather see him get a half season of regular AAA plate appearances to start the year with a focus on tapping into that power more. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, seak05 said:

Hays is a bow avg defensive of at this point in his career. If he’s covering cf you have three below, to well below (santander) defensive of in your starting lineup. They’re not going to trip and call, but it won’t be pretty.

I believe Hays is a below average defensive CF.  OK to have out there for a game or two, but not more.  Personally, I don’t want him as the first option to sub in for Mullins.   

To the extent your post suggests Hays is below average as a corner OF, the stats are mixed and I’d disagree with that statement.   Rtot and OAA had him below average, Rdrs and UZR had him above average.  To me he’s above average most of the time, maybe average or a bit below when he’s playing hurt.  

[btdart20]

I'm convinced Vavra is in the McNeil/Frazier mold of hitters and shouldn't be striving for the high EV added power that teams drive for these days.  His approach is to simply square up the ball, put it in play, and make the defense get to the ball.  That style can play offensively.

But being a 'weak' hitter means pitchers will attack the zone.  He needs to prove quality of contact to get hits.  The statcast of the Pitt game the other day showed their pitchers did just that.  They filled the zone.

Orioles vs. Pirates - 2/28/2023 - Savant Gamefeed (mlb.com)

The biggest difference between Vavra and the 2Bs above (other than being a proven MLB player) is defensively.  Vavra's bat would have to justify his existence elsewhere.  I'm not convinced he's a 10-15 HR guy, but he can be a 35+ 2B guy with full time PAs.  He'd be somewhere in the Yuli Gurriel/Mark Grace mold as a 1B/LF. 

This is tough for me to say because his hitting style represents something like the Everyman who doesn't have light-tower power... but I doubt that he'll ever be a starter on the O's. 

That said, I do think he provides enough as a back-up 1B/LF.  And more importantly, I think there's a place for PH'ing late in games over the high K% options (O'Hearn, Cordero, Diaz, etc.).

 

 

Here's an interesting article about the king of contact's fit into today's hitting paradigm.

Column: Tony Gwynn might not recognize baseball today, but of course he'd still hit - The San Diego Union-Tribune (sandiegouniontribune.com)

Chris Gwynn said that in today’s home run-obsessed environment, “it would take an organization that knows what they’re doing” for his brother to be allowed to develop into the hitter he became.

 

 

[oriole]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Maybe you answered your own question.  Why didn’t they get rid of Vavra?   Now, he’s in camp playing 2B, 3B, and LF.  If he gets some time at 1B, that would be interesting.  
 

I do think Diaz has some upside.  So why did the Orioles put him on waivers two separate times?   Because their interest in Diaz is having him play everyday at Norfolk and seeing if he can take his game up a level.  Same plan for Daz Cameron.

They absolutely loaded up on left handed 1B this offseason. I think instead of having a focused idea of what would happen after spring training they probably have gone the “throw every at the wall and see what sticks” approach. I don’t think Diaz would get every day playing time in AAA and he doesn’t need anymore seasoning. This is a make or break year for him, he can either make that jump to the major league level or he can’t. I think the fact that he’s had so many chances and failed is the only reason why he was able to be retained. He’s not a gold chip or anything. 
 

Admittedly, I’m biased too. I don’t like Mountcastle all that much. I like the idea of good defense and left handed power. 
 

Regarding Vavra, I don’t think Elias felt the need to trade him for just anyone and he probably didn’t get a lot of interest so instead of giving him away, he kept him. I highly doubt Vavra is part of Elias’ plans. Not after how he was used last year. The utility thing is probably more of an attempt at making him seem more valuable to other teams than seeing how they can fit him on this one. Until they actually start playing him, I’m not convinced it’ll be any different from last year where he just sat on the bench being blocked by one of the worst players in the entire game.

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

21 homers in 244 minor league games.   That’s 1 homer every 12 games.  I said between 10 and 15.  You mentioned a season where he had 10 and that was a season he only played 102 games.   

Of course, half of those 21 career HR came 4 years ago in A ball. We could look at his 2 HR in 200+ PAs in Norfolk last year as a much better indicator of his power. 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, oriole said:

They absolutely loaded up on left handed 1B this offseason. I think instead of having a focused idea of what would happen after spring training they probably have gone the “throw every at the wall and see what sticks” approach. I don’t think Diaz would get every day playing time in AAA and he doesn’t need anymore seasoning. This is a make or break year for him, he can either make that jump to the major league level or he can’t. I think the fact that he’s had so many chances and failed is the only reason why he was able to be retained. He’s not a gold chip or anything. 
 

Admittedly, I’m biased too. I don’t like Mountcastle all that much. I like the idea of good defense and left handed power. 
 

Regarding Vavra, I don’t think Elias felt the need to trade him for just anyone and he probably didn’t get a lot of interest so instead of giving him away, he kept him. I highly doubt Vavra is part of Elias’ plans. Not after how he was used last year. The utility thing is probably more of an attempt at making him seem more valuable to other teams than seeing how they can fit him on this one. Until they actually start playing him, I’m not convinced it’ll be any different from last year where he just sat on the bench being blocked by one of the worst players in the entire game.

You keep talking about how Vavra was used last year as if he was not used.  His first game was July 29.   He started 13 games in August and another 13 in September.  For a player they had no use for they used him quite a bit.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Of course, half of those 21 career HR came 4 years ago in A ball. We could look at his 2 HR in 200+ PAs in Norfolk last year as a much better indicator of his power. 

How about 5 homers in 40 games at Bowie in 2021?   I concede he didn’t show 10-15 homer power last year although he did post 14 doubles in 45 games with Norfolk.    

[Just Regular]

I'm curious to see how Roch writes (or not) about O'Hearn and Diaz as "roster candidates".

I believe based on contract status they will be 1B/DH in Norfolk even if they out-OPS Heston Kjerstad this spring.   They are Elias safety blankets if Mountcastle backslides or has a bad injury, and little break camp chances even if Elias thinks they are better than Terrin Vavra, which I kind of suspect he does.