Heston, Terrin and Lewin

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

How about 5 homers in 40 games at Bowie in 2021?   I concede he didn’t show 10-15 homer power last year although he did post 14 doubles in 45 games with Norfolk.    

I am not too obsessed with how many homers Vavra hits.   I do think he needs to show better extra base power than he showed in his short major league stint last year.  An .079 ISO is unlikely to cut it.  A .127 ISO, like he had at Norfolk, probably suffices if he can keep his OBP where it was, or higher.   I’ve been encouraged that Vavra has been hitting the ball with authority in the early spring games.   

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

How about 5 homers in 40 games at Bowie in 2021?   I concede he didn’t show 10-15 homer power last year although he did post 14 doubles in 45 games with Norfolk.    

I think we must have a different perspective on what constitutes a 10-15 HR player. To me it’s more than a small sample size, extrapolated out to a full season of ABs in AA. More importantly, just watching his ABs last year gives me little hope that he can show the necessary power to keep the BB rate high in MLB. 

[RZNJ]

27 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I think we must have a different perspective on what constitutes a 10-15 HR player. To me it’s more than a small sample size, extrapolated out to a full season of ABs in AA. More importantly, just watching his ABs last year gives me little hope that he can show the necessary power to keep the BB rate high in MLB. 

When you call someone a 10-15 homer player aren’t you basing that on a full season?    So, 40 games at AA is too small a sample but 45 games at AAA is enough?  Or is it his first 40 games in MLB?

I said he’s shown 10-15 homer power in the minors.  10 homers in 102 games in A.   5 homers in 40 games in AA.    He obviously did not turn on many pitches with the Orioles.   

[Tony-OH]

I'll be honest, I like Vavra a bit as a utility guy, especially when the Orioles will have three guys on the roster (Mateo, Henderson, and Urias in a pinch) who can play SS already. If Vavra can show he can handle 3B, he gives the team some flexibility of moving Henderson over to SS against a particularly tough righty on righty guy. Vavra also would be a decent pinch hitter for Mateo, McCann, Urias or even Hays against a tough right-handed reliever late in games. 

He would look a lot better as that guy if Frazier wasn't in the mix and Westburg/Urias was the main second baseman. while he doesn't have that "pop" off the bench that a Diaz, O'Hearn or Mazara would have, he provides a lot more positional flexiblity than they do. 

[waroriole]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

When you call someone a 10-15 homer player aren’t you basing that on a full season?    So, 40 games at AA is too small a sample but 45 games at AAA is enough?  Or is it his first 40 games in MLB?

I said he’s shown 10-15 homer power in the minors.  10 homers in 102 games in A.   5 homers in 40 games in AA.    He obviously did not turn on many pitches with the Orioles.   

The player’s full season. You’re not counting games they don’t play. If he can only play in 80 games and hits 10 HR, he’s not a 20 HR guy. You have to actually do it, not just say what could’ve happened if he had been healthy or good enough to actually play 162. 
 

If Frazier homers in the first series of the season, and then gets hurt after 3 games, is he a 50 HR guy?

Edited March 2, 2023 by waroriole

[Just Regular]

103 EV today for Vavra on the 420-foot triple.

Last year in 70-ish batted balls 104.5 was the maxEV.

[rm5678]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

103 EV today for Vavra on the 420-foot triple.

Last year in 70-ish batted balls 104.5 was the maxEV.

The Tigers' radio announcers were surprised at Vavra's power when they saw him hit that triple.