Jordan Westburg 2023

[oriole]

On 5/1/2023 at 7:51 AM, RZNJ said:

Trey Mancini got us Seth Johnson and Chayse McDermott.   I'm good to go with something like that.  Mountcastle's type doesn't carry a ton of value even if he had an .800 OPS but he was something like .729 last year and in danger of being worse.  His OPS has dropped significantly each of his 3 years in the league and this leopard shows no signs of changing his spots.  The biggest issue is no true 1B to replace him.

Lewin Diaz is a terrific 1B and hitting well at Norfolk. Once regarded as a top prospect. I’d play him over Mountcastle at this point. 

[emmett16]

26 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I agree with you that the deadline is the next logical window for trades to happen. 

No onto the later statement.. It sounds like you really like Westburg and who am I to tell you not to?lol

I'm not a guy that falls in love with particular prospects. But I want them all to do well so much in that it helps the Baltimore Orioles. Having said that, if your scenario played out and Jordan Westburg killed it when he got to the Majors and they sent Gunnar down. Then what?

What do you do with the much more talented, higher rated player/prospect in Gunnar? Leave him in AAA? Trade him? Platoon them?

Also, if the consensus of evaluators is correct, and Gunnar is much more talented than Westburg. What informs your confidence that Westburg will come up to the Bigs and have immediate success without experiencing the transitional struggles that Gunnar has?

For the record, I don't care if we keep both, trade both, or keep one and trade the other. So long as the Baltimore Orioles get the kind of return that will provide a significant boast to the starting rotation. IMO - we have so much talent that we can trade both of them and still have adequate replacements for SS, 3B, and 2B long and short term.

Then baseball.  Iron sharpens irons and competition is a good thing.  I’m more concerned about Ws in MLB and the long term success of the assets.  Westburg is smoking right now & Gunnar is not.  Switch them.   Gunnar’s D has not be world class so far as well.  I’m not down on Gunnar at all, just want to see the team use the talent and depth they’ve created.  The 40 man thing puts a damper on that. FTR I don’t think it’s likely to happen.  But in don’t think it would hurt to get Westburg some MLB reps and Gunnar some confidence. 

Edited May 2, 2023 by emmett16

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, oriole said:

Lewin Diaz is a terrific 1B and hitting well at Norfolk. Once regarded as a top prospect. I’d play him over Mountcastle at this point. 

I liked the idea at one time but I think Diaz might be a AAAA hitter.   Better chance of O’Hearn taking some of Mountcastles AB’s away.

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Then baseball.  Iron sharpens irons and competition is a good thing.  I’m more concerned about Ws in MLB and the long term success of the assets.  Westburg is smoking right now & Gunnar is not.  Switch them.   Gunnar’s D has not be world class so far as well.  I’m not down on Gunnar at all, just want to see the team use the talent and depths they’ve created.  The 4am thing puts a damper on that. FTR I don’t think it’s likely to happen.  But in don’t think it would hurt to get Westburg some MLB reps and Gunnar some confidence. 

What's the 4am thing? I'm not familiar or don't understand.

If the O's wanted to play Westburg they could use him at 2B and keep Gunnar where he is. I agree that Gunnar is scuffling BIG TIME in regards to EVERY aspect of his game except for taking walks. He has been more of a negative than a positive despite his OBP. But I sort of expected struggles out of the gate. The same happened to Adley, JRod, and Witt (prospects of a similar pedigree).

If the Orioles believe for some strange reason that Westburg is a better player than Gunnar. Then they should move Gunnar while he still has TREMENDOUS value. Sending him down to AAA does nothing. As I said if Westburg is great, then what's the plan for Gunnar going forward? If Westburg struggles, like he most likely will, what's the plan then?

The Orioles are winning in spite of Gunnar's struggles so I don't see that being a factor for the decision.

[oriole]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I liked the idea at one time but I think Diaz might be a AAAA hitter.   Better chance of O’Hearn taking some of Mountcastles AB’s away.

He’s a good enough 1B defender to give him an extended look in my opinion. Seems obvious at this point that Kjerstad is the future 1B and the best we can hope from Mountcastle is to be serviceable until that happens. Seems like too tall an order for Mountcastle. Not to mention that a solid 1B put the infield at ease and an infield at ease puts the pitching at ease. I’m just done watching Mountcastle miss catches and then line out every AB and have to listen about bad luck. 
 

Im not gonna be too upset if they don’t give Diaz a long look though. I think the idea of him being an AAAA hitter makes sense. But Chris Davis had a similar trajectory where he smashed the minors but sucked at the majors…until he didn’t. You just never know when a player will be able to make that jump and Diaz obviously has some talent offensively. 

[emmett16]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

What's the 4am thing? I'm not familiar or don't understand.

If the O's wanted to play Westburg they could use him at 2B and keep Gunnar where he is. I agree that Gunnar is scuffling BIG TIME in regards to EVERY aspect of his game except for taking walks. He has been more of a negative than a positive despite his OBP. But I sort of expected struggles out of the gate. The same happened to Adley, JRod, and Witt (prospects of a similar pedigree).

If the Orioles believe for some strange reason that Westburg is a better player than Gunnar. Then they should move Gunnar while he still has TREMENDOUS value. Sending him down to AAA does nothing. As I said if Westburg is great, then what's the plan for Gunnar going forward? If Westburg struggles, like he most likely will, what's the plan then?

The Orioles are winning in spite of Gunnar's struggles so I don't see that being a factor for the decision.

Typo.  Fixed.  “40 man thing” Westburg isn’t on the 40 so likely won’t get a call any time soon

 

Sending him down creates opportunity for someone else.  If you were gonna trade a top flight player to the Os and had interest in Westburg, would you rather see him tear up AAA or have success in MLB.  I think now after 400+PA of .~900 OPS he should get a shot soon.  If they aren’t gonna jettison Frazier then who should slide over for him to get some ABs? I think he’s more than deserved it at this point.  For no other reason to throw him a bone and put some $$ in his pocket for a couple weeks. 

Edited May 2, 2023 by emmett16

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Typo.  Fixed.  “40 man thing” Westburg isn’t on the 40 so likely won’t get a call any time soon

 

Sending him down creates opportunity for someone else.  If you were gonna trade a top flight player to the Os and had interest in Westburg, would you rather see him tear up AAA or have success in MLB.  I think now after 400+PA of .~900 OPS he should get a shot soon.  If they aren’t gonna jettison Frazier then who should slide over for him to get some ABs? I think he’s more than deserved it at this point.  For no other reason to throw him a bone and put some $$ in his pocket for a couple weeks. 

I agree with some of what you are saying. He has definitely earn an MLB opportunity and proven that he is ready for the SHOW.

However, that opportunity may have to come somewhere else if he is used in a trade. I don't see any scenario where we will or need to retain all 4 of Westburg, Gunnar, Ortiz, and Norby. Some are going to have to go. 

And really it's a win/win. They get the opportunity to show what they can do and the Orioles will get the much need help at the top of their rotation. To be honest there is only really room for 2 of the aforementioned group. 

The 40 man stuff shouldn't be an issue because we have what 3/4 mediocre pitchers on there currently that are just taking up space?

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I agree with some of what you are saying. He has definitely earn an MLB opportunity and proven that he is ready for the SHOW.

However, that opportunity may have to come somewhere else if he is used in a trade. I don't see any scenario where we will or need to retain all 4 of Westburg, Gunnar, Ortiz, and Norby. Some are going to have to go. 

And really it's a win/win. They get the opportunity to show what they can do and the Orioles will get the much need help at the top of their rotation. To be honest there is only really room for 2 of the aforementioned group. 

The 40 man stuff shouldn't be an issue because we have what 3/4 mediocre pitchers on there currently that are just taking up space?

Injuries & poor performance. 
 

Elias is fond of the 40 man rules and retaining services.

Of course they will make a trade in the future.  That doesn’t mean Westburg shouldn’t get some reps at MLB.  Success in MLB will build his brand. 

Edited May 2, 2023 by emmett16

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I would really hate to see that. I would rather to remain (frustratingly) in this holding pattern. Until one of them or both (depending on who we decide to keep) can be packaged in a trade. The worse thing for the Baltimore Orioles is for a Gunnar Henderson to waste value sitting at AAA. As a matter of fact, the worse thing for us is for Westburg, or Ortiz, or Cowser or Norby to be sitting at AAA by season's end.

By the deadline, we have to decide who stays and who goes. It does nothing for the Orioles to hoarde Minor League talent for too much longer.

We aren't hoarding ML talent.  Cowser, Norby, and Ortiz were promoted aggressively last year.  None have even a half season in AAA.  Norby's OPS is under .700 while Cowser and Ortiz are off to good starts.  

[Bemorewins]

22 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Injuries & poor performance. 
 

Elias is fond of the 4am rules and retaining services.

Of course they will make a trade in the future.  That doesn’t mean Westburg shouldn’t get some reps at MLB.  Success in MLB will build his brand. 

I don't believe short term success for a prospect impacts their value to any significant degree. Just as short term failure as in Gunnar's case doesn't really impact value that much either. I don't care personally one percent about Westburg's 'brand'. I only care about his performance and value. Those two things are at all time highs right now. 

I am not against him coming up. But not at the expense of Gunnar's development or at the expense of the value that a Major League ready AAA player who is top 100 ranked can extract in a trade.

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

We aren't hoarding ML talent.  Cowser, Norby, and Ortiz were promoted aggressively last year.  None have even a half season in AAA.  Norby's OPS is under .700 while Cowser and Ortiz are off to good starts.  

I disagree. Westburg has been at AAA for about 500 PAs now. He could have been at the Major League level except that we signed a mediocre Major League infielder, when we already knew that would block him. How long was Stowers at AAA? How old is Ortiz? I think he will be 25 this year. Same goes for DL Hall. He will be 25 this year, it's make or break time this season (not today) to decide with some of these guys.

I don't want Cowser to spend over a season at AAA when we have a hole in our outfield. Yes I believe that Santander is a DH at best. And I honestly with the way he has been hitting this year, I don't know about that...lol

[RZNJ]

It's called depth.  No major injuries yet.  Fingers crossed.

[emmett16]

44 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't believe short term success for a prospect impacts their value to any significant degree. Just as short term failure as in Gunnar's case doesn't really impact value that much either. I don't care personally one percent about Westburg's 'brand'. I only care about his performance and value. Those two things are at all time highs right now. 

I am not against him coming up. But not at the expense of Gunnar's development or at the expense of the value that a Major League ready AAA player who is top 100 ranked can extract in a trade.

I'm not talking about 'short term success'.  I'm talking about success at the highest level.  The jump from AAA to MLB is the biggest in all of baseball. 

If you want to get optimal trade value, you'd better care about Westburg's brand.  

Gunnars isn't performing.  He could use a spell at AAA.  This year is about the Ws.  Switching Gunnar with Westburg likely helps both players.  Westburg gets the increased competition he needs to further develop & Gunnar gets a breather to get back in a groove.  No knock on Gunnar at all, he will be fine.  The kid just turned 21 and is in the Bigs.  But a couple week vacation in AAA while Westburg gets his due opportunity could do a world of good for him, Jordan, and O's organization.  

[Bemorewins]

You seem to love and advocate for Westburg almost as if he is a friend or family member...lol

Like I said, I don't see a scenario where the O's this season or any other are more dependent upon his success or value OVER Gunnar's. Gunnar doesn't need a vacation/demotion or whatever you want to call it. What he needs to do is be more aggressive and attack pitches in the zone against Major League pitchers. Going down to AAA does nothing for him. It would help Westburg though and give him an opportunity/build his brand/put a few extra dollars in his pocket, etc. Again as a person who is not a family member or personal friend, like myself, why would I care about any of those things?

I think Westburg has a future as a big leaguer. But I am in no way convinced that his future is nearly as bright as Gunnar's. Gunnar was #1 ranked prospect in the sport for a reason. Westburg who is at his peak ranking right now is #66. 1 > 66.

[yark14]

The guys from On the Verge podcast made a good point about perhaps Elias wanting to avoid exposing any potential weaknesses Westburg could potentially show at the ML level.

I'm a huge fan of Westburg, and definitely have a bias since we have mutual acquaintances.  I want to avoid trading him at all costs, as his floor is a starting-caliber player, with a ceiling of All-Star caliber.  

We know the ceiling of Urias and Frazier, and IMO Westburg's floor is close to the same level as their ceiling (especially Frazier).   If we are serious about winning, the best players need to be on the big league roster and not wasting time in AAA just to increase trade value.