Jordan Westburg 2023

[emmett16]

28 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Yes the Nats had the top end talent of Harper, Strausburg, and Rodon, along with other prospects that they used as ammo in trades to acquire the players necessary to win a World Series. I’m not sure they had the depth of talent that we have, but yes that is a good example.

But I think the bigger point is those things lining up where you are able to accumulate that amount of talent at once is extremely rare. I would argue that they will never have it as good again as they did then and we won’t as we do now. Well, at least not for a long, long time.

I’d argue this is just the tip of the ice-berg.  They only started to participate in the International market 3 years ago. They are building a state of the art facility to further enhance that part of the system that has had no part in the current crop.  Sure, we won’t have a 1-1 pick anytime soon but this admin has shown their ability to draft and develop from all rounds of the draft.  As Basallo and a few of the other 2019 J2 guys are showing, once established and furnished with an attractive facility the international pipeline will begin to pump in the next two years.  I’d go out on a limb and say the system in 3 years from now will likely be stronger than it is right now.  

Edited May 4, 2023 by emmett16

[Bemorewins]

59 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

We were talking about Kjerstad because the poster said the system was not allowing movement of players. My point was there was no one at AA ready to move up.

My point was if guys don’t graduate from the top (AAA) then it creates a logjam throughout the system. My statement was in response to a poster who said they do not mind if all the AAA guys like Ortiz stay down the whole year. And I was saying with a system this full that will create issues. I don’t want Kjerstad in AA the whole year. I hope we move him along so that he is ready to be a Baltimore Oriole next year. I recognize that the best version of the O’s is the one with Adley, Gunnar, Grayson, Holliday, Kjerstad, Cowser, Mullins, etc. as a part of the same team.

[Bemorewins]

28 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I’d argue this is just the tip of the ice-berg.  They only started to participate in the International market 3 years ago. They are building a state of the art facility to further enhance that part of the system that has had no part in the current crop.  Sure, we won’t have a 1-1 pick anytime soon but this admin has shown their ability to draft and develop from all rounds of the draft.  As Basallo and a few of the other 2019 J2 guys are showing, once established and furnished with an attractive facility the international pipeline will begin to pump in the next two years.  I’d go out on a limb and say the system in 3 years from now will likely be stronger than it is right now.  

I’m curious in understanding what you mean by “tip of the iceberg”?

I certainly agree that we are making international gains, I mean if we are being honest there was nowhere to go but up…lol

But I agree with you that I like some of the early returns and definitely Basallo!

Even as the international talent base grows the domestic won’t be as top heavy again with the superstar/allstar potential we have in Adley, Gunnar, Grayson, and Holliday. But I think what Elias is building is a system that can continue to produce like the Dodgers, Rays, Guardians, etc.

But I stick with my original assessment because as good as we hope it may be, I highly doubt that it will ever be as good as it is now. You don’t just find other Adley’s growing on trees. The man is one of the best hitters in baseball ALREADY in his second season at the CATCHER position! There have been few like him at that spot like ever!

I know some people think it may call my words hyperbole, but when you can only provide a very few examples in the last 30-40 years; you have to recognize how special this truly is!

No I would prefer that this doesn’t turn out like the Royals or Nats, where we finally pop and then burst and it’s over back to suckdom. But I honestly don’t want to be the Rays either who are always seemingly in it, but can never get over the hump. I would much rather the process/strategy and results of the Astros and Braves. Those 2 have shown to be championship models that are sustainable, built on homegrown talent, very good development, and timely trades.

[emmett16]

17 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I’m curious in understanding what you mean by “tip of the iceberg”?

I certainly agree that we are making international gains, I mean if we are being honest there was nowhere to go but up…lol

But I agree with you that I like some of the early returns and definitely Basallo!

Even as the international talent base grows the domestic won’t be as top heavy again with the superstar/allstar potential we have in Adley, Gunnar, Grayson, and Holliday. But I think what Elias is building is a system that can continue to produce like the Dodgers, Rays, Guardians, etc.

But I stick with my original assessment because as good as we hope it may be, I highly doubt that it will ever be as good as it is now. You don’t just find other Adley’s growing on trees. The man is one of the best hitters in baseball ALREADY in his second season at the CATCHER position! There have been few like him at that spot like ever!

I know some people think it may call my words hyperbole, but when you can only provide a very few examples in the last 30-40 years; you have to recognize how special this truly is!

No I would prefer that this doesn’t turn out like the Royals or Nats, where we finally pop and then burst and it’s over back to suckdom. But I honestly don’t want to be the Rays either who are always seemingly in it, but can never get over the hump. I would much rather the process/strategy and results of the Astros and Braves. Those 2 have shown to be championship models that are sustainable, built on homegrown talent, very good development, and timely trades.

My point is we are in year 5 of this regime.  In year 1 they mostly evaluated and started to make some internal and systemic adjustments.  Through years 2 & 3 they completely cleaned house and started to implement their technologies, systems, and training programs.  Not sure the turnover rate, but it was very significant.  In year 2 they participated in the international market for the very first time.  In year 3 they began to build the international facility that will be huge in sales pitches to the international market.  In year 4 they still had a lot of players in the system from the old regime that had not started their training with this group and the very first few players drafted and brought in made it MLB.  Now in year 5, all their systems, technologies, coaches, and staffs are well entrenched in their teachings and processes.  They have a pipeline of American talent and a pipeline of international talent.  The very first international  players are just now appearing on full season teams.  Those were players we had to pick up off the scrap heap.  4 years later Perez has made relationships and inroads with all the 12/13/14 yo's he first met when he came on the job who will be eligible for the 2023 int signing period.  They have a shiny new state of the art facility that they can use as their selling tool along with an established major league development system that has produced top end talent.  There are 7 int prospects in the top 30.  In three years' time when Basallo is the #1 prospect in all of baseball  and his future replacement is getting his feet wet in Delmarva and our top 30 has ~15 int. players is when I think our system will be at an 'all time' & 'historic' level.  And if he's able to pick a Willems in rd 8 (assuming he's the real deal - big assumption) then there is no where to go but up for the the future of the system.  

 

 

Sorry for tangent - back to Westburg   My man had 3 hits last night woot woot! 

Edited May 4, 2023 by emmett16

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

My point is we are in year 5 of this regime.  In year 1 they mostly evaluated and started to make some internal and systemic adjustments.  Through years 2 & 3 they completely cleaned house and started to implement their technologies, systems, and training programs.  Not sure the turnover rate, but it was very significant.  In year 2 they participated in the international market for the very first time.  In year 3 they began to build the international facility that will be huge in sales pitches to the international market.  In year 4 they still had a lot of players in the system from the old regime that had not started their training with this group and the very first few players drafted and brought in made it MLB.  Now in year 5, all their systems, technologies, coaches, and staffs are well entrenched in their teachings and processes.  They have a pipeline of American talent and a pipeline of international talent.  The very first international  players are just now appearing on full season teams.  Those were players we had to pick up off the scrap heap.  4 years later Perez has made relationships and inroads with all the 12/13/14 yo's he first met when he came on the job who will be eligible for the 2023 int signing period.  They have a shiny new state of the art facility that they can use as their selling tool along with an established major league development system that has produced top end talent.  There are 7 int prospects in the top 30.  In three years' time when Basallo is the #1 prospect in all of baseball  and his future replacement is getting his feet wet in Delmarva and our top 30 has ~15 int. players is when I think our system will be at an 'all time' & 'historic' level.  

That is very unlikely 

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That is very unlikely 

I like my chances.  I'd say half the board was convinced that after Adley graduated from the prospect list that we'd fall way down the rankings.   Believe we had 5 top prospects when Adley was at the top of the heap.  How many do we have now?  How many will likely be in future 100 rankings later this summer?  IMO what they are building is sustainable and growable. 

Edited May 4, 2023 by emmett16

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

My point is we are in year 5 of this regime.  In year 1 they mostly evaluated and started to make some internal and systemic adjustments.  Through years 2 & 3 they completely cleaned house and started to implement their technologies, systems, and training programs.  Not sure the turnover rate, but it was very significant.  In year 2 they participated in the international market for the very first time.  In year 3 they began to build the international facility that will be huge in sales pitches to the international market.  In year 4 they still had a lot of players in the system from the old regime that had not started their training with this group and the very first few players drafted and brought in made it MLB.  Now in year 5, all their systems, technologies, coaches, and staffs are well entrenched in their teachings and processes.  They have a pipeline of American talent and a pipeline of international talent.  The very first international  players are just now appearing on full season teams.  Those were players we had to pick up off the scrap heap.  4 years later Perez has made relationships and inroads with all the 12/13/14 yo's he first met when he came on the job who will be eligible for the 2023 int signing period.  They have a shiny new state of the art facility that they can use as their selling tool along with an established major league development system that has produced top end talent.  There are 7 int prospects in the top 30.  In three years' time when Basallo is the #1 prospect in all of baseball  and his future replacement is getting his feet wet in Delmarva and our top 30 has ~15 int. players is when I think our system will be at an 'all time' & 'historic' level.  And if he's able to pick a Willems in rd 8 (assuming he's the real deal - big assumption) then there is no where to go but up for the the future of the system.  

 

 

Sorry for tangent - back to Westburg   My man had 3 hits last night woot woot! 

First let me say, I appreciate the detail of your assessment! I also hope that you are correct about Basallo and Willems. I hope every player affiliated with the Orioles crushes it.

However, even as hopeful/optimistic about the potential of our international development system to produce serious talent that it sounds like you are, you will have to admit that the domestic talent is going to have a drop off when we are not selecting at the top of the draft (and every round) for 5 consecutive years like we did. That was a HUGE advantage to be able to pick from the very best of the talent pool for half of a decade! If it wasn’t why would we have tanked for so long?

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

 In year 2 they participated in the international market for the very first time. 

 

This just ticks me off.

It is simply not true.

Eduardo Rodriguez, a player having a very nice season, was an International signing by the Orioles,  Schoop has had a successful career in the majors and was an International signee by the Orioles.

I do not get the appeal of completely dismissing the efforts that were made.  Yes ownership restricted what could be done in that area but it wasn't a total vacuum and I don't understand why folks want to misrepresent what actually happened.

Is it some form of sucking up to Elias? 

 

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I like my chances.  I'd say half the board was convinced that after Adley graduated from the prospect list that we'd fall way down the rankings.   Believe we had 5 top prospects when Adley was at the top of the heap.  How many do we have now?  How many will likely be in future 100 rankings later this summer?  IMO what they are building is sustainable and growable. 

I agree that it is sustainable in that it hopefully will continue to produce results. However, we are not going to finish this year with anywhere near 9 in the top 100. Even if Basallo and Willems join the list. Several guys will be coming off, like just about all of the AAA guys. Either through call ups or trades. When you subtract Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz, and either Norby and/or Hall from that top 100 list, even if you add the other 2, that leaves us with something like 6 or 7. Which is in line with what the Dodgers and Guardians have. 

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

First let me say, I appreciate the detail of your assessment! I also hope that you are correct about Basallo and Willems. I hope every player affiliated with the Orioles crushes it.

However, even as hopeful/optimistic about the potential of our international development system to produce serious talent that it sounds like you are, you will have to admit that the domestic talent is going to have a drop off when we are not selecting at the top of the draft (and every round) for 5 consecutive years like we did. That was a HUGE advantage to be able to pick from the very best of the talent pool for half of a decade! If it wasn’t why would we have tanked for so long?

No doubt.  Those early guys also didn't have the advantage of a polished system to run through, though.

Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz, Connor Norby, & Creed Willems make me quite confident in their drafting abilities.

I'll be keeping a close eye on Fabian, Bright, Wagner, & Ardoin as a litmus test to the continued ability to draft after round 1.  

[emmett16]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

This just ticks me off.

It is simply not true.

Eduardo Rodriguez, a player having a very nice season, was an International signing by the Orioles,  Schoop has had a successful career in the majors and was an International signee by the Orioles.

I do not get the appeal of completely dismissing the efforts that were made.  Yes ownership restricted what could be done in that area but it wasn't a total vacuum and I don't understand why folks want to misrepresent what actually happened.

Is it some form of sucking up to Elias? 

 

As noted, I was specifically referring to this regime.  They started Nov 2018 and first participated in the Int draft in 2019.  2019 was the first year The Orioles Organization participated in the draft in earnest.  Do you not agree? 

 

*but when you cut out half my quote I can see how one might get confused...

Edited May 4, 2023 by emmett16

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

No doubt.  Those early guys also didn't have the advantage of a polished system to run through, though.

Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz, Connor Norby, & Creed Willems make me quite confident in their drafting abilities.

I'll be keeping a close eye on Fabian, Bright, Wagner, & Ardoin as a litmus test to the continued ability to draft after round 1.  

But here’s the thing though, none of those guys have the upside of an Adley, Gunnar, Grayson or Holliday. 

Most of the time, you have to get that from the top of the draft, from a 16/17 year old in the Caribbean that you develop, or from an Uber talent in Asia.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

As noted, I was specifically referring to this regime.  They started Nov 2018 and first participated in the Int draft in 2019.  2019 was the first year The Orioles Organization participated in the draft in earnest.  Do you not agree? 

 

*but when you cut out half my quote I can see how one might get confused...

You're wording, all of it not just what I posted for, ironically, ease of understanding, wasn't clear.

It's also not true that Elias didn't participate in the International market in his first year.  Unless you mean he signed with the O's in Nov 2018 and didn't start signing guys until 2019.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mike-elias-on-international-signing-period

[emmett16]

15 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

But here’s the thing though, none of those guys have the upside of an Adley, Gunnar, Grayson or Holliday. 

Most of the time, you have to get that from the top of the draft, from a 16/17 year old in the Caribbean that you develop, or from an Uber talent in Asia.

Where was Adley playing when he was 19 y/o?  He had just been drafted in the 40th round and was working his freshman year at Orgeon...  Defining upside is a challenge.  Willems at 19 hammering A ball and has a cannon of an arm.  You could make the argument that he has a higher upside? no

Last time I checked we have a few pretty interesting 16/17 y/o SSs in the system, who in.....3 years time might have that same high ceiling as the guys you listed.

Edited May 4, 2023 by emmett16

[emmett16]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You're wording, all of it not just what I posted for, ironically, ease of understanding, wasn't clear.

It's also not true that Elias didn't participate in the International market in his first year.  Unless you mean he signed with the O's in Nov 2018 and didn't start signing guys until 2019.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mike-elias-on-international-signing-period

I agree, I'm very bad at writing my thoughts clearly and concisely  And, yes if I worded anything wrong it would be technically it was with-in his first year (I went back and re-read and saw how that could be confusing).  I was going by Calendar year.... Elias started 2018 being year 1....first international signing was in 2019 year two.  

I will work on my writing; I know it's lacking.