Austin Hays 2023

[Frobby]

Austin Hays is having a terrific spring so far, .409/.480/1.000 with a team-leading 4 homers.  He’s traditionally been a good spring hitter, but it’s good to see him off to a good start.   Here’s an interesting, detailed piece from Jon Meoli where Hays diagnoses his problems from the second half of last year and some modifications he’s made to his swing this spring.   
https://jonmeoli.substack.com/p/inside-the-tweak-in-austin-hays-swing

[waroriole]

The ball is coming off his bat really well. 

[RZNJ]

Cautiously optimistic that he can maintain an .800 OPS all year.  He’s saying the right things.  He just needs to keep doing as he says.  And stay healthy.

[Sports Guy]

Hays is similar to Santander. While you don’t expect a good OBP, you don’t expect the overall performance to be a problem IF he stays healthy.

But the health/unreliability clouds both of them.

[wildcard]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Austin Hays is having a terrific spring so far, .409/.480/1.000 with a team-leading 4 homers.  He’s traditionally been a good spring hitter, but it’s good to see him off to a good start.   Here’s an interesting, detailed piece from Jon SoMeoli where Hays diagnoses his problems from the second half of last year and some modifications he’s made to his swing this spring.   
https://jonmeoli.substack.com/p/inside-the-tweak-in-austin-hays-swing

Sounds like Hays should be good until he gets injured.   I bet teams will be pitching him in on his hands.

[Pickles]

If he stays healthy and productive he has a 4 WAR season in him before his career is over.  I wouldn't be surprised at all to see it this year.

[Daddy-O's]

It would be huge if Hays and Mountcastle would play closer to their ceiling this year.

[oriole]

Hays and Mountcastle are two players I had a lot of confidence would be a big part of the next playoff team. They’re not really factoring into anything for me anymore. But I hope they prove me wrong! Glad to see a good spring by Hays. 

[24fps]

3 hours ago, Daddy-O's said:

It would be huge if Hays and Mountcastle would play closer to their ceiling this year.

They're both having good springs which I think is encouraging.

What do you think Hays' ceiling is?  So far he has been decidedly average (career 104 WRC+) with problems staying healthy.  If this actually is the Orioles' year to start their next competitive window then Cowser, Hjersted, Mullins and Stowers make Hays the fifth OF by September.  Backup OF is the perfect role for Hays IMO.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, 24fps said:

They're both having good springs which I think is encouraging.

What do you think Hays' ceiling is?  So far he has been decidedly average (career 104 WRC+) with problems staying healthy.  If this actually is the Orioles' year to start their next competitive window then Cowser, Hjersted, Mullins and Stowers make Hays the fifth OF by September.  Backup OF is the perfect role for Hays IMO.

Well hopefully Hays will be traded well before then.  A healthy Hays would start for a lot of good teams.  If Hays is your best OF, you're team probably isn't very good, but a lot of teams have a 3rd OF no better than Hays.

[Big Al]

3 hours ago, 24fps said:

 

What do you think Hays' ceiling is?  

If healthy, .300+ avg. .800+ OPS. 25 HR. And gold glove level defense. 

[OriolesMagic83]

8 minutes ago, Big Al said:

If healthy, .300+ avg. .800+ OPS. 25 HR. And gold glove level defense. 

Yeah, that's a 5th OF according to some.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Yeah, that's a 5th OF according to some.

That was ceiling.

Hays has a career batting average of 257, he's hit 300 once, in 2019 over 75 plate appearances.

He has had an OPS over 800 once, in 2019.

He's never hit 25 HR in a season.

So yea, if he can do 2019 for a full season he can hit those milestones.

Edited March 18, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[24fps]

25 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Yeah, that's a 5th OF according to some.

I would love for Hays to up his game, but he's approaching 1500 MLB PA's so the sample size is now big enough to start drawing conclusions.  I think this will be an important year for him given the competition he's got behind him.  I wish him good health and a fair shot.  It's a good time to be an Orioles fan.

[ChosenOne21]

If the health continues to be a problem, Hays is probably a great 4th outfielder on a strong contender. Not playing every day could keep him healthier.

If he stays healthy he's an above average starting outfielder (probably worse in center because his defense would be stretched)