Adam Frazier 2023

[Sanity Check]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The only way in which the money was mentioned is that for a team with a limited budget folks would have rather the money been spent elsewhere.

I'm going to have to disagree with this.  Even if the Orioles HAD spend money elsewhere, that would not have changed how many on this message board felt about the Orioles wasting $8M on him when there was a general feeling that we had guys just as good, if not better, already in the organization.

The Frazier signing was not popular regardless of what else the Orioles did in the offseason.  I don't think there's any denying that.

[wildcard]

41 minutes ago, owknows said:

No... it's not a good problem to have.

And it's effects are beginning to stack up throughout the farm.

AAA guys can't move to MLB

AA guys can't move to AAA

A guys can't move to AA

Middle infielders are stacking up. People are starting to lose playing time. It has a significant cost.

This team drafted exceptionally well... and stacked up high quality players. This came at the expense of longsuffering fans watching a lot of tanking. And now they're at serious risk of squandering some of that draft capital because they're clinging to replacement level journeymen at the MLB level like grim death.

They already needed to trade away some middle infielders BEFORE the added Frazier. Now they they're in a tighter spot. And they're going to have to make decisions without even knowing what they have. Not to mention the fact that they'd be a better MLB team today if they parted company with the dumpster fodder.

We don't need half-eaten sandwiches from the trash. We're not that team anymore. We have the best farm in baseball... and we admire it like it's a rock collection.

Keeping that farm working like a well oiled machine is going to be CRITICAL to maintaining high level MLB performance on a low budget. You have to keep the conveyor belt evenly stocked and rolling. This is going to turn into the "I Love Lucy" episode where they are trying to pack chocolates at the end of the assembly line.

It's sad... because its so obviously predictable.

So you think that Elias is smart enough to acquired all these prospects but not smart enough to manage them.   Kind of weird thinking.

And the boohooing about the fans is also weird.   They are currently suffering through watching the O's winning at the 100 win pace.  

What I think will happen is that this off season Santander will be traded for pitching prospects opening at spot for Cowser.   Frazier will be going opening a spot for Westburg.

Stowers probably gets traded for pitching because there is not a spot for him and he will be 26 next season.

I think around 9 or 10 changes will happen by opening day next spring and that will take care of  most of the backlog in the system.  Elias probably wants some backlog at AAA in case of injuries.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

Nobody is squawking about the MONEY to Frazier.

They're squawking about the fact the he's clogging the plumbing. And it was obvious that he would even before the signing.

There are better options already with the big club... and even more in AAA.

Most of whom play at least equivalent defense.

All of whom can't get playing time because there's a guy who's batting .150 in the last 30 days standing in the way.

Well, I think if he continues to hit .150 for another 30 days, things will probably start to change.  

You and I have had our squabbles about Frazier’s value over the entire season to date, but anyone can see that he’s hit very poorly over the last 30 days.  It’s undeniable, and if it continues for a long while, eventually Frazier’s playing time will get cut.  

I think in general, managers and front offices tolerate 30 day slumps and give their established players opportunities to bounce back.  If the slump persists 60 days or longer, at some point it’s not a slump and changes get made, especially when possibly better alternatives are available.   

In Frazier’s case, I think there’s been a degree of bad luck in his slump.  He has a .177 BABIP over the last 30 days.  But some other trends are evident.  For one thing, he’s stopped walking, with only 3 BB in 88 PA in that 30 day window.  By contrast, even when he was at his previous low point (on May 14), he had walked 17 times in 132 PA and had a 100 point spread between his low BA and his quite decent OBP.   

So in summary, I think the O’s will give Frazier several more weeks to get things turned around, and there’s a decent chance that he will, if he shows a bit more patience at the plate and has a little better batted ball luck than he’s had the last 30 days.   But if he doesn’t turn it around pretty soon, it’s definitely possible he could lose his starting spot.  

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

No... it's not a good problem to have.

And it's effects are beginning to stack up throughout the farm.

AAA guys can't move to MLB

AA guys can't move to AAA

A guys can't move to AA

Middle infielders are stacking up. People are starting to lose playing time. It has a significant cost.

This team drafted exceptionally well... and stacked up high quality players. This came at the expense of longsuffering fans watching a lot of tanking. And now they're at serious risk of squandering some of that draft capital because they're clinging to replacement level journeymen at the MLB level like grim death.

They already needed to trade away some middle infielders BEFORE the added Frazier. Now they they're in a tighter spot. And they're going to have to make decisions without even knowing what they have. Not to mention the fact that they'd be a better MLB team today if they parted company with the dumpster fodder.

We don't need half-eaten sandwiches from the trash. We're not that team anymore. We have the best farm in baseball... and we admire it like it's a rock collection.

Keeping that farm working like a well oiled machine is going to be CRITICAL to maintaining high level MLB performance on a low budget. You have to keep the conveyor belt evenly stocked and rolling. This is going to turn into the "I Love Lucy" episode where they are trying to pack chocolates at the end of the assembly line.

It's sad... because its so obviously predictable.

So let’s see .. did you also predict that they would be 18 games over .500 with a noncontribution from GRod, Tate and Givens out, Mullins out, Mountcastle out and hitting like my grandmother, Aaron Hicks in CF?   Did you get all these right since things are so “obviously predictable “. 
about a team in a season? 

Adam Frazier has contributed to this team and its current record and will likely continue to contribute in ways that win games. 
 

And 83 wins last year, on a pace for 98-100 this year but Elias is somehow not aware?  Nah.. he knows exactly what he will do in every contingency unlike posters on a board. 

[owknows]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

So you think that Elias is smart enough to acquired all these prospects but not smart enough to manage them.   Kind of weird thinking.

You really can't wrap your mind around the idea that... for example... a man might have a really good eye for draft talent... but have a bad tendency to stick with bad veterans for too long? Seriously? Did you watch last season?
 

Quote

And the boohooing about the fans is also weird.   They are currently suffering through watching the O's winning at the 100 win pace. 

Apparently you're having a little trouble with reading comprehension. My point was that the team is creating a slow-motion problem that it doesn't have to create. And that the fans suffered for a long time to create the best farm in baseball. And it would suck to see them squander that farm on bad decisions like hanging on to obviously expired milk like Odor... Phillips... Aguilar.. Frazier... at the expense of developing their own players. That doesn't mean the Orioles aren't playing well now in spite of those bad decisions. But of course you knew that. You're just being disingenuous.

Quote

What I think will happen is that this off season Santander will be traded for pitching prospects opening at spot for Cowser.   Frazier will be going opening a spot for Westburg.
 

I don't think it takes any great powers of prognostication to predict that they won't be resigning Frazier. The point of this discussion is now. And what Santander has to do with Frazier anyone's guess.

Quote

Stowers probably gets traded for pitching because there is not a spot for him and he will be 26 next season.

 

Also not exactly an earth-shattering prediction Given Hays, Mullins, Hicks, Cowser, and probably Kjerstad.

Quote

I think around 9 or 10 changes will happen by opening day next spring and that will take care of  most of the backlog in the system.  Elias probably wants some backlog at AAA in case of injuries.

 

Mateo and Frazier stink on ice.

They don't stink in the off season. They stink NOW.

 

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it is part of the whole job field moving into more of a personality management focus.

Good vibes all the time is the industry norm.

Davey Martinez in today’s Post:

”We can’t make mistakes.  We can’t give other teams 30 outs and expect to win.

”The line has been crossed.  It really has.  I have my conversations, and I’ll have a conversation tomorrow, as well.  In order for us to get better and to compete and to compete with really good teams, we’ve got to clean it up.  We really do.”

That’s what you hear from a manager when the team sucks.  

[owknows]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, I think if he continues to hit .150 for another 30 days, things will probably start to change.  

I suspect you're right. But history gives reason for pause.

They held on to mistakes for an obscenely long time last season... and Hyde's recent comments vis-a-vis Frazier have not been encouraging.

Quote

You and I have had our squabbles about Frazier’s value over the entire season to date, but anyone can see that he’s hit very poorly over the last 30 days.  It’s undeniable, and if it continues for a long while, eventually Frazier’s playing time will get cut.  

I think in general, managers and front offices tolerate 30 day slumps and give their established players opportunities to bounce back.  If the slump persists 60 days or longer, at some point it’s not a slump and changes get made, especially when possibly better alternatives are available.   

In Frazier’s case, I think there’s been a degree of bad luck in his slump.  He has a .177 BABIP over the last 30 days.  But some other trends are evident.  For one thing, he’s stopped walking, with only 3 BB in 88 PA in that 30 day window.  By contrast, even when he was at his previous low point (on May 14), he had walked 17 times in 132 PA and had a 100 point spread between his low BA and his quite decent OBP.   

So in summary, I think the O’s will give Frazier several more weeks to get things turned around, and there’s a decent chance that he will, if he shows a bit more patience at the plate and has a little better batted ball luck than he’s had the last 30 days.   But if he doesn’t turn it around pretty soon, it’s definitely possible he could lose his starting spot.  

I hope your analysis plays out positively either way... that either he gets a lot better... or they can find their way clear to move on.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, owknows said:

You really can't wrap your mind around the idea that... for example... a man might have a really good eye for draft talent... but have a bad tendency to stick with bad veterans for too long? Seriously? Did you watch last season?
 

Apparently you're having a little trouble with reading comprehension. My point was that the team is creating a slow-motion problem that it doesn't have to create. And that the fans suffered for a long time to create the best farm in baseball. And it would suck to see them squander that farm on bad decisions like hanging on to obviously expired milk like Odor... Phillips... Aguilar.. Frazier... at the expense of developing their own players. That doesn't mean the Orioles aren't playing well now in spite of those bad decisions. But of course you knew that. You're just being disingenuous.

I don't think it takes any great powers of prognostication to predict that they won't be resigning Frazier. The point of this discussion is now. And what Santander has to do with Frazier anyone's guess.

Also not exactly an earth-shattering prediction Given Hays, Mullins, Hicks, Cowser, and probably Kjerstad.

 

Mateo and Frazier stink on ice.

They don't stink in the off season. They stink NOW.

 

Obviously Elias has a lot more patience than you do.   And he is winning.

[wildcard]

Not to be too over the top on Elias,  I do think he fell on a horse shoe  to  have Hicks and O'Hearn playing like they are.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Davey Martinez in today’s Post:

”We can’t make mistakes.  We can’t give other teams 30 outs and expect to win.

”The line has been crossed.  It really has.  I have my conversations, and I’ll have a conversation tomorrow, as well.  In order for us to get better and to compete and to compete with really good teams, we’ve got to clean it up.  We really do.”

That’s what you hear from a manager when the team sucks.  

Kevin Cash publicly called out his best player.  Exceptions happen.

Overall I think the role of the manager has evolved.

 

Last I checked Buck was still being positive in public.

[owknows]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Obviously Elias has a lot more patience than you do.   And he is winning.

I know it might seem inconceivable.... but sometimes even good baseball executives make mistakes.

Elias is an unusually good baseball executive.

But he makes occasional mistakes.

Nearly always involving holding on too long to veteran reclamation projects who showed a little bit of initial success.

And Elias had some success stories even there... He turned a fair number of other teams' rejects into pretty decent MLB players. And there is I'm sure a thrill for a GM that goes along with that.

But we're not that team any more.

Which means he needs to set aside his dumpster-diving tendencies and focus on the incredible array of pieces he's already established in MiLB

There's really nothing complicated or even controversial about this criticism of Elias.

It was PAINFULLY obvious last season. You were part of the chorus of critics.

And it is approaching the pain threshold this season as well.

[Mr-splash]

3 minutes ago, owknows said:

I know it might seem inconceivable.... but sometimes even good baseball executives make mistakes.

Elias is an unusually good baseball executive.

But he makes occasional mistakes.

Nearly always involving holding on too long to veteran reclamation projects who showed a little bit of initial success.

And Elias had some success stories even there... He turned a fair number of other teams' rejects into pretty decent MLB players. And there is I'm sure a thrill for a GM that goes along with that.

But we're not that team any more.

Which means he needs to set aside his dumpster-diving tendencies and focus on the incredible array of pieces he's already established in MiLB

There's really nothing complicated or even controversial about this criticism of Elias.

It was PAINFULLY obvious last season. You were part of the chorus of critics.

And it is approaching the pain threshold this season as well.

This forum is full of overweight 50 year olds who have barely picked up a baseball in their life talking about they could draft, develop and field a team of winning baseball on a severe budget restriction. The level of delusion here is incredible. I love the Orioles. I watch them and I bleed orange, but I understand I'm not an expert GM. We are winning games. The ladies here will always cry no matter what. 

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Mr-splash said:

This forum is full of overweight 50 year olds who have barely picked up a baseball in their life talking about they could draft, develop and field a team of winning baseball on a severe budget restriction. The level of delusion here is incredible. I love the Orioles. I watch them and I bleed orange, but I understand I'm not an expert GM. We are winning games. The ladies here will always cry no matter what. 

You don't mind if the rest of us talk a little baseball here.. do you Mr-sploosh?

[Mr-splash]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

You don't mind if the rest of us talk a little baseball here.. do you Mr-sploosh?

No, I find it amusing. I love this place. I don't meet cynical characters like this in real life. This is quite the unique place for Os fans.

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, owknows said:

I know it might seem inconceivable.... but sometimes even good baseball executives make mistakes.

Elias is an unusually good baseball executive.

But he makes occasional mistakes.

Nearly always involving holding on too long to veteran reclamation projects who showed a little bit of initial success.

And Elias had some success stories even there... He turned a fair number of other teams' rejects into pretty decent MLB players. And there is I'm sure a thrill for a GM that goes along with that.

But we're not that team any more.

Which means he needs to set aside his dumpster-diving tendencies and focus on the incredible array of pieces he's already established in MiLB

There's really nothing complicated or even controversial about this criticism of Elias.

It was PAINFULLY obvious last season. You were part of the chorus of critics.

And it is approaching the pain threshold this season as well.

Its a lot different when the team is winning.   Changes don't need to happen until the team starts to lose.  There is a lot more rope given.