Adam Frazier 2023

[ChuckS]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m glad to see Frazier have a good first game.  It beats the alternative by a long shot.  Every poster here should be rooting for him to have a career year, regardless of whet they thought of the signing that brought him here.  

This is where I am. It’s way too early to declare victory but I said at some point, months ago that I thought there was about a 40 percent chance that he’d be a productive starter for us. Still where I am after watching him play today. 

I think we can say for certain that he’s going to generally have more productive at bats than what we got out of Odor last year. So that’s something. 

Edited March 31, 2023 by ChuckS

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

This is where I am. It’s way too early to declare victory but I said at some point, months ago that I thought there was about a 40 percent chance that he’d be a productive starter for us. Still where I am after watching him play today. 

I think we can say for certain that he’s going to generally have more productive at bats than what we got out of Odor last year. So that’s something. 

Does seem more athletic and better hitter than Odor (less power). Passed the eye test today. The question is whether we might have gotten the same production cheaper from prospects. Nothing to do but root for the guy now that he's here (which will not prevent complaining about him blocking Westburg).

[IPlayGM]

I guess my question would be this: what is the level of production he would have to have to make it okay for Westburg/Ortiz to stay down? Does this production even exist? I am also assuming with this question that those 2 are producing in AAA.

[sportsfan8703]

Frazier batting 8th/9th looks like a plus.  Loved his approach today. Does Frazier or Gunnar sit versus Sale?

[waroriole]

20 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Frazier batting 8th/9th looks like a plus.  Loved his approach today. Does Frazier or Gunnar sit versus Sale?

This is where I don’t get Elias’ obsession with a LH bat in the off-season. We struggled against LHP last year. Urias and Mateo are the only RH IF. All the more reason Westburg should be on the team. 
 

[2001OriolesFan]

12 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s one game.  No one ever said that he can’t be good for games here and there.

And btw, while I doubt he has a good offensive year, I think it’s more possible than some. 
 

His performance has very little to do with why I think it’s an awful signing. The expected performance is just the icing on the cake for me. 
 

If he plays well this year, it will still be an awful signing and decision to me.

IF he plays will it will be an awful signing. ........................... ??

 

[DirtyBird]

13 minutes ago, 2001OriolesFan said:

IF he plays will it will be an awful signing. ........................... ??

 

The guy is an idiot

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, IPlayGM said:

I guess my question would be this: what is the level of production he would have to have to make it okay for Westburg/Ortiz to stay down? Does this production even exist? I am also assuming with this question that those 2 are producing in AAA.

Right, it depends what you think these guys would do in the majors.  In my mind, Westburg is more ready offensively than Ortiz is, though Ortiz could play major league defense right now.   But it’s time to just chill and let the season unfold.  Guys will do better than expected, guys will do worse than expected, guys will get hurt.   It will all shake out.

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

This is where I don’t get Elias’ obsession with a LH bat in the off-season. We struggled against LHP last year. Urias and Mateo are the only RH IF. All the more reason Westburg should be on the team. 
 

I agree with you about the issues facing lefties last year. Elias and the FO must have felt it was not something that would continue. It’s definitely something it follow this year. 
 

I think in case of Frazier him hitting LF offers something different from those positions. I’m sure for the most part the days when Mateo/Urias or Gunnar sit will be be RHP.  

[forphase1]

He had a very nice first game.  Didn't change the fact that it was a dumb signing and at a position we really didn't need to bring in a player.   Now if he continues this kind of production for the next month or so I'll start to change my tune.  But one game is pretty much the textbook definition of a SSS, and performing the way he did or going 0-4 with 4 Ks and making mistakes in the field really shouldn't change anyone's opinion on the signing.  

[eddie83]

3 hours ago, IPlayGM said:

I guess my question would be this: what is the level of production he would have to have to make it okay for Westburg/Ortiz to stay down? Does this production even exist? I am also assuming with this question that those 2 are producing in AAA.

I’m not saying you are saying this but once again you can’t field a team where Gunnar/Mateo/Urias/Westburg/Ortiz can all play a ton at the same time. 
 

Frazier hitting from the left side and having the ability to play the OF gives the club different options than they had prior. As long as Mateo and Urias are both here there are not many everyday at bats for either of Westburg and Ortiz anyway. Now could you play Westburg/Mateo/Urias and in 3 for 2 mix with an occasional off day for Gunnar? Sure, but Elias likes Frazier in that role and still has Westburg and Ortiz waiting in the wings. 

Edited March 31, 2023 by eddie83

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

He had a very nice first game.  Didn't change the fact that it was a dumb signing and at a position we really didn't need to bring in a player.   Now if he continues this kind of production for the next month or so I'll start to change my tune.  But one game is pretty much the textbook definition of a SSS, and performing the way he did or going 0-4 with 4 Ks and making mistakes in the field really shouldn't change anyone's opinion on the signing.  

Well the question, what was your issue with the signing?

Was it performance based? Or was it based off of the idea that the money should have been spent on another position, we shouldn’t be blocking younger better talent and we just flat out didn’t need a MIer?

For me, performance has little to do with it although I do expect him to not be good. If he ends up being good, most of us will be wrong about that. That’s fine. If your issue is you don’t mind Blocking the young bats and just don’t want it to be him and then he plays well, you will have been wrong.

If your issue is that you don’t want his 400-500 at bats going to him no matter what his production is, there is nothing he can do that changes that thought.

For me, this team dropped the ball with how they blocked the young guys this offseason and it wasn’t just with Frazier but Frazier was the easy one to not do because you simply just didn’t need to sign him. Other moves required trades and we have no idea if those guys were sought after or not.

I mean look at yesterday. If Frazier isn’t there, Stowers likely plays. Westburg almost certainly would have if they didn’t send him down.  We already see that impact.  The at bats taken away from those guys for this player is just wrong. 
 

Frazier can be a 2ish WAR guy and he can play good defense but his salary plus likely ceiling doesn’t justify blocking those guys.

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

He had a very nice first game.  Didn't change the fact that it was a dumb signing and at a position we really didn't need to bring in a player.   Now if he continues this kind of production for the next month or so I'll start to change my tune.  But one game is pretty much the textbook definition of a SSS, and performing the way he did or going 0-4 with 4 Ks and making mistakes in the field really shouldn't change anyone's opinion on the signing.  

Is anyone saying the game should change anyone’s opinion about the signing?   At this point, that’s water under the bridge.   I just want the guy to play well, for obvious reasons, and I’m glad to see him have a good first game.  

[jamalshw]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Frazier batting 8th/9th looks like a plus.  Loved his approach today. Does Frazier or Gunnar sit versus Sale?

I'm hoping Frazier sits. I'm expecting something like Mullins, Rutschman, Santander, Mountcastle, Henderson, Urias, Hays, McKenna, Mateo...I hope I'm wrong and we see Stowers in there, but Hyde didn't get him many ABs last year against LHP despite his minor league numbers against southpaws. 

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, IPlayGM said:

I guess my question would be this: what is the level of production he would have to have to make it okay for Westburg/Ortiz to stay down? Does this production even exist? I am also assuming with this question that those 2 are producing in AAA.

Here's the formula you're looking for:

The rookie upside/downside risk factor + $8m opportunity cost alternatives = Frazier 

Frazier = goal of professional PAs/OBP, LHH, and above average 2B defense (positional flex a plus). 

The way I read the tea leaves:

* If Frazier performs, then we can still debate the process (ug) and still give Elias the win on it (ala Lyles had the same debate). 

* If Frazier doesn't perform, then the debate is around the risk factors applied to rookies vs. aging players.