Umpire Scorecard Thread

[Aristotelian]

<90% accuracy is crazy. Apparently this guy is the third worst in the league, just barely better than CB Bucknor.

https://umpscorecards.com/umpires/

 

[ShoelesJoe]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

That is pitiful.   

By the way, I wanted to look at the chart of Sunday’s game, which featured a really ridiculous 3-2 call on O’Hearn with the bases loaded.  For some reason, they have a record of that game but no chart of the errant pitches.   3-2 with the bases loaded has to be about as impactful as it gets.  

On the year, the O’s are -10 runs on bad calls (4th worst in MLB), while the Yankees are +19 (2nd best, behind Cleveland at +25).

Not only was it 3-2 with the bases loaded, it was 3-2 with the bases loaded and no outs. The incomprehensible strike 3 call on O’Hearn not only meant the Orioles lost a run that should have scored, but the Guardians registered an extra out that they didn’t earn. Subtracting a run while adding an out on a single pitch is about as impactful a mistake as a home plate umpire can make. To put it in statistical terms, all by itself that bad call on one pitch reduced the chances of an Orioles’ win that day by 6%. 

[Fiver6565]

I don’t understand that report card from last night. There was an AB from Cowser fairly ate in the game where he literally took 5 balls, all off the plate, and got called out on strikes. How is that not among the three top impacts?

Regardless, in a season filled with bad HP umpiring, last night was the worst I can recall. 

[survivedc]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why are you using quotes around calculation?  Are you accusing them of just making up numbers?

We do have an idea of how much impact the various counts have on the outcome of an at bat.

There is this for chart for instance, tracking the chance to get on base.

This is awesome, I’ve always wondered about odds per count, but never actually looked.

[ShoelesJoe]

I honestly think MLB is waiting for some huge umpire screwup in a postseason game before they institute an electronic strike zone. They expect the umpire union to go nuclear if they make the change now, and being able to point to a Larry Vanover-ish playoff game will make the switch easier. 

[SteveA]

37 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

I don’t understand that report card from last night. There was an AB from Cowser fairly ate in the game where he literally took 5 balls, all off the plate, and got called out on strikes. How is that not among the three top impacts?

Regardless, in a season filled with bad HP umpiring, last night was the worst I can recall. 

Well first of all, the impacts are broken down call by call.

So sure, if a bunch of bad calls occur in an at bat, that cumulative impact is great.   But that's not how the calculations are done.   It calculates the impact of each one, not the total impact of multiple calls.

And that at bat came with two outs  and the bases empty.   So he should have walked instead of striking out.   Even if he did, there is probably an 80% chance we don't score that inning.

So while the calls were terrible, their impact on the game was not that high.  Our win probability before that at bat, with 2 outs no one on, down a run in the 5th, was 30%.   That strikeout knocked it down to 29%.   A walk probably would have bumped it up to 31% or 32%.   So the cumulative effect of all of the bad calls in that at bat probalby had a -2% or -3% effect on our chances of winning.   Any single one of those calls was probably under 1%.

[Fiver6565]

20 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Well first of all, the impacts are broken down call by call.

So sure, if a bunch of bad calls occur in an at bat, that cumulative impact is great.   But that's not how the calculations are done.   It calculates the impact of each one, not the total impact of multiple calls.

And that at bat came with two outs  and the bases empty.   So he should have walked instead of striking out.   Even if he did, there is probably an 80% chance we don't score that inning.

So while the calls were terrible, their impact on the game was not that high.  Our win probability before that at bat, with 2 outs no one on, down a run in the 5th, was 30%.   That strikeout knocked it down to 29%.   A walk probably would have bumped it up to 31% or 32%.   So the cumulative effect of all of the bad calls in that at bat probalby had a -2% or -3% effect on our chances of winning.   Any single one of those calls was probably under 1%.

Gotcha, thanks for answering. 

[Tony-OH]

Vanover clearly is no longer able to do the job. It's about time that MLB stands up to the umpire unions and tells them that they need to retire umpires just like players get retired when they can no longer do the job effectively. 

Maybe the union is just holding on for the inevitable which is the automated strike zone. 

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

That is pitiful.   

By the way, I wanted to look at the chart of Sunday’s game, which featured a really ridiculous 3-2 call on O’Hearn with the bases loaded.  For some reason, they have a record of that game but no chart of the errant pitches.   3-2 with the bases loaded has to be about as impactful as it gets.  

On the year, the O’s are -10 runs on bad calls (4th worst in MLB), while the Yankees are +19 (2nd best, behind Cleveland at +25).

 

 

At what point are coincidences no longer coincidences?

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Vanover clearly is no longer able to do the job. It's about time that MLB stands up to the umpire unions and tells them that they need to retire umpires just like players get retired when they can no longer do the job effectively. 

Maybe the union is just holding on for the inevitable which is the automated strike zone. 

Sadly, he’s only 85th of the 90 umpires in strike zone accuracy.  

[drjohnnyfever1]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I wonder if Larry's parents have to sign his report card.

This is what happens, Larry...

[billhatf]

Larry's gonna be at 3rd base tonite.  Checked swing calls are gonna be brutal!!

[Tony-OH]

Just now, billhatf said:

Larry's gonna be at 3rd base tonite.  Checked swing calls are gonna be brutal!!

Don't argue with him though. He'll sic his seeing eye dog on ya!

[accinfo]

My thought was the threat of the electronic strike zone would maybe made the umpires a little better but the opposite appears to be true.  I think it is a mortal lock by 2026 which is fine by me.  

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I honestly think MLB is waiting for some huge umpire screwup in a postseason game before they institute an electronic strike zone. They expect the umpire union to go nuclear if they make the change now, and being able to point to a Larry Vanover-ish playoff game will make the switch easier. 

If the union went on strike, would anyone care? I think Manfred would get free drinks at any bar he walks into.