AL team to watch: White Sox

[Aristotelian]

14 minutes ago, oriole said:

I see someone like Cease as too rich for Elias. You’d definitely have to give up someone like Holliday or Henderson. I just don’t see the Orioles doing that. Elias hasn’t been known to make bold moves.

I’d say Giolito is a more realistic target. He wouldn’t cost anyone in the top ten. Someone like Prieto could do it I’m sure.

Agreed, Giolito is more realistic. I don't think Prieto is close to the price. Other teams will be bidding on these guys. I would think Norby-Basallo-Beavers range.

[DirtyBird]

Not sure why Gunnar would be off the table in a deal for a potential ace, given who we have in our organization.

You have to give up talent to acquire talent. And we currently have Urias, Mateo, Westburg and Ortiz major league ready, and Holiday coming soon. 

[dystopia]

22 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Not sure why Gunnar would be off the table in a deal for a potential ace, given who we have in our organization.

You have to give up talent to acquire talent. And we currently have Urias, Mateo, Westburg and Ortiz major league ready, and Holiday coming soon. 

Giving up Henderson for a guy who has had one year of dominance would be a wrench. Cease is off to a very mediocre start.

[Sports Guy]

You don’t definitely have to give up Henderson or Holliday to get Cease. They may ask but they aren’t getting it. The Orioles have enough prospect depth to get him without those guys.

[Bemorewins]

** Longer post alert ** (Please do curse me or come after me...lol) It's just an opinion.

First of all, when we discuss the possibility/probability of the Chi Sox having a fire I would say that the odds are pretty high. Even if they won their next 10 in a row, they would still be under .500. They are really bad this year.

Now if we are talking about acquiring any players from their team. I wouldn't want Lynn, Clevinger, or Giolito as they do NOTHING for us as difference makers to help us increase the odds of our post season success. They are barely if at all better than anything that we already have and in Lynn's case probably worse. Why would we waste giving up anything for marginal to no improvement at all? We can do much better!

Now on to Cease, he is the exact profile player that we be a difference maker for us, as he could lineup game #1 in any series against any opponent and give us a more than fair shot to come out on top (vs. the likes of Gausman, Manoah, McClanahan, Cole, Lopez, Bieber, deGrom, Valdez, etc.)

However, when you talk about Cease a fair package for compensation for what the CHI Sox may be looking for is what the Nats got for Soto. The rational is that you would be getting an ELITE difference maker for 3 post season runs. And I think that's fair.

Here's the part where I ask you not to throw something at me...lol While I don't want to give up any of Grayson, Gunnar, or Holiday as part of any trade package. And at first, I was like absolutely no way when considering this idea., I thought about something. Of the 3 players (though I very much believe in Gunnar and am in no way dissuaded of his future success based on a slow start to the season) Gunnar is the most replaceable of the 3.

There is no future scenario where the O's win a World Series in which Grayson is not a huge part of that. We have no pitcher with his ceiling in the Major or Minor Leagues even close to him. (Please spare me with the DL Hall stuff, we will be lucky at this point if he turns out to be a decent starter.) Holiday is a 1:1 who is also a 5 tool player and has great pedigree. Plus he will be #1 overall prospect at some point like Gunnar and may be an even better hitter? So I see no fall off when with him being our cornerstone uber talented lefty shortstop basically what Gunnar is now.

So far this season Gunnar has given us very little and while I know that will change, we've won a lot of games thus far without much contributions from him. If we played Urias at 3B every day, there would be a serious fall of in ceiling, but we would get solid production that could contribute to a serious contender. For this season, Mateo is giving us the kind of production that we could only hope for from a Gunnar one day. With Holiday on the fast track and if Mateo continues to produce at anywhere close to an Allstar level, we could trade him at next deadline and slot Holiday in for him, and then recover some of the prospect loss. Plus, Mayo will be ready to take over for Urias probably around the same time, which keeps our left side infield young and very talented.

Finally, a package with Gunnar being the center piece with maybe adding a Stowers, Westburg, (maybe a Hall if need be), and a Basallo or a Creed Willems does that get it done? Do we need to add a little more or is that too much? Either way we have the MOST org talent in the sport of baseball and will have PLENTY in excess left over. But what we don't have is a Cease. Even if Grayson develops into a true top of the rotation starter (like I believe he will) he's only one guy, I have some confidence in Wells for the post season, beyond that it's hopes, dreams, and Means.

Imagine if Grayson is that top guy AND we have Cease? We would be a legit postseason contender. Maybe even a favorite? Think about it.

 

[DirtyBird]

16 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Giving up Henderson for a guy who has had one year of dominance would be a wrench. Cease is off to a very mediocre start.

I agree about Cease. Just saying I don't believe Henderson is in same untouchable category as Adley and Grayson.

[Aristotelian]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You don’t definitely have to give up Henderson or Holliday to get Cease. They may ask but they aren’t getting it. The Orioles have enough prospect depth to get him without those guys.

What would be a fair package that doesn't include Grayson, Gunnar, or Holliday? Who would you start with? Cowser? White Sox are pretty strong in OF unless you think they are going to dump Eloy or Robert. I would certainly be interested in Cowser-plus for Cease.

Rhetorical question, if Gunnar has a month like Mateo, and Mateo has a month like Gunnar, does our openness to trading Gunnar change? Or would that put Mateo back on the table?

 

[waroriole]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

What would be a fair package that doesn't include Grayson, Gunnar, or Holliday? Who would you start with? Cowser? White Sox are pretty strong in OF unless you think they are going to dump Eloy or Robert. I would certainly be interested in Cowser-plus for Cease.

Rhetorical question, if Gunnar has a month like Mateo, and Mateo has a month like Gunnar, does our openness to trading Gunnar change? Or would that put Mateo back on the table?

 

If the White Sox are gonna have a fire sale and trade Cease, that includes Robert, Vaughn, Jimenez. Maybe they keep Anderson

[emmett16]

9 hours ago, pdiddy said:

On the Verge pod discussed the Sox yesterday. Agree with Cease as a target but the price is as always the issue. Lynn wouldn’t be a target for me - once you fall over the cliff it’s hard to climb back up.

They also mentioned Ed Rod - would definitely have interest there but I wonder what the relationship is between him and the org after trading him?

Players know they are playing for 30 teams.  IMO being traded is a sign that you have value and are wanted and shouldn’t take pride in that.  Ed Rod still has some pals on the team from his time in Bal.  I imagine he’d be thrilled to join Orioles.  He’d be a nice target. 

[waroriole]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Players know they are playing for 30 teams.  IMO being traded is a sign that you have value and are wanted and shouldn’t take pride in that.  Ed Rod still has some pals on the team from his time in Bal.  I imagine he’d be thrilled to join Orioles.  He’d be a nice target. 

EdRod was traded in 2014. I don’t think anyone is left. 

[emmett16]

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

EdRod was traded in 2014. I don’t think anyone is left. 

I feel very old all the sudden. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by emmett16

[Bahama O's Fan]

10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

There are plenty of combos I would give up. Holliday, GRod and Gunnar are off the board but they don’t need to be on the board to make a deal there.

If you were the Sox, what would you accept?

[emmett16]

Does Hall, Stowers, Westburg net Cease? 18 years of service for 3.  Is that ann on overpay? Underpay?  I have no idea on things like this and seldom chime in.  Would very much like, however, a legit #1. 

[Bemorewins]

36 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

What would be a fair package that doesn't include Grayson, Gunnar, or Holliday? Who would you start with? Cowser? White Sox are pretty strong in OF unless you think they are going to dump Eloy or Robert. I would certainly be interested in Cowser-plus for Cease.

Rhetorical question, if Gunnar has a month like Mateo, and Mateo has a month like Gunnar, does our openness to trading Gunnar change? Or would that put Mateo back on the table?

 

Cowser plus a WHOLE lot more! I think in order to figure out a point of fair compensation we would need to look at a similar package to what the Padres gave the Nats for Soto. That's going to be the price point. The rationale is that you a getting a difference making for cost controlled seasons 2 1/2 seasons and 3 postseason runs.

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Does Hall, Stowers, Westburg net Cease? 18 years of service for 3.  Is that ann on overpay? Underpay?  I have no idea on things like this and seldom chime in.  Would very much like, however, a legit #1. 

Not even in the ballpark. It's going to have to be a 5 or 6 for one. And we are going to have to include top 50 talent. They are not going to just give him away and though we have more asset ammo than anyone else, the Dodgers are close and unless they set their sights on Ohtani, they are going to be in on the bidding for Cease. We are not getting Cease IMO for only 2 top 100 prospects. That would be robbery!