A Realistic Pitching Ace And What It Will Take to Acquire Him

[Bemorewins]

14 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

Bemore, you're missing the point.  We're talking about who the White Sox would ask for in their initial ask.  You have a starting point in a negotiation and then work toward an agreement.  It's that way in any industry.  No doubt The Nats asked for quite a bit more than they got when they were haggling with teams for Soto.  I'd be curious who was in their initial ask when they were talking to the Padres.  And like I've said when chatting with you before, the White Sox need to a bit crazy in their ask because a) they're terrible and b) someone might be desperate enough to bite.  And I don't think Soto is a good comparison because Soto is a position player.  Without looking it up I'd say elite starters that are affordable rarely become available mid-season.  

Soto is MORE VALUED by ANY metric than Cease. Just look up career WAR, post season success, All-star game appearances etc. Cease has ONE season of great success and nothing else. So, there are going to be instant questions that diminish his value (especially given the early returns of this season) in terms of was last year not who he really is or who he can be counted on to be going forward?

Also, baseball is not analogous to real estate or other industries, you can't just say, "oh well we are terrible so we will insult you with a ridiculous ask". Teams will take that as, you are not really serious and don't really want to deal. The Orioles are not obligated to deal with the CHI SOX just like the CHI SOX are not obligated to deal with the O's. I guarantee you if they pulled some unprofessional stuff like what you are suggesting, the two teams won't ever deal again especially not as long as those two persons leading the front offices are in place.

You suggest asking for Holliday AND Gunnar PLUS in a trade is 'a bit crazy'. No, it is much more than that, it is insultingly unrealistic AND a waste of professional people's time. Again, that would be like us calling the Yankees to ask for Judge or the Braves to ask for Ocuna Jr. It's not a serious offer.

When you say "someone might be desperate enough to bite" you are ONLY talking about the Orioles.Since  NO OTHER ORG has a package that they can offer ANYTHING CLOSE to like what you are suggesting. So that kind of ask would be laughed off by the O's and not taken seriously.

[sevastras]

4 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

For what it's worth, I personally don't want the O's to go all in. Ever. If it becomes obvious we can't grow our own pitchers, obviously we'll need to package some prospects because of our budgetary constraints. But if the price isn't right, then I hope they wait as long as necessary until it is. I like having options and hope for the future.

I would rather be like the Ravens where they're consistently in the hunt and hope that things break their way for a title run at the right time. That's a matter of preference as some people would rather mortgage everything for the best shot.

The front office is obviously aware that we will need starting pitchers to truly contend. But I'm fine with them waiting until the right deal materializes.

My sentiments as well. I don’t want to be the team that sends 5 guys for Bedard. I would rather send out mid rotation guys or sign someone who is viewed as an ace. Someone keeps saying the Soto trade is a comp, it is not. Soto is an every day stud. Cease is a pretty great pitcher but not a Verlander or Kershaw type. I advocated at the start of the season to pay Verlander $35mm for one year but I won’t advocate giving up Henderson for Cease. Westburg, Hall, Cowser is my personal upper limit for a trade like this. Someone who has knowledge or access to whatever the trade “value” algorithm is can tell me if that is close or not but Henderson isn’t getting traded in any scenario that I have seen thus far if I were the GM. 

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

For what it's worth, I personally don't want the O's to go all in. Ever. If it becomes obvious we can't grow our own pitchers, obviously we'll need to package some prospects because of our budgetary constraints. But if the price isn't right, then I hope they wait as long as necessary until it is. I like having options and hope for the future.

I would rather be like the Ravens where they're consistently in the hunt and hope that things break their way for a title run at the right time. That's a matter of preference as some people would rather mortgage everything for the best shot.

The front office is obviously aware that we will need starting pitchers to truly contend. But I'm fine with them waiting until the right deal materializes.

Could you explain with NINE top 100 prospects how we could ever "go all in" or risk "mortgaging the future"?

My friend, a trade for an ace like Cease will cost maybe 3 top 100 guys. We may be able to get Eduardo Rodriguez given his contract situation for one or none. If you combine BOTH of those trades together (which is highly unlikely that we do) we would still have 5 top 100 prospects PLUS one of the best rotation in baseball.

And even after Eduardo opted out at the end of the season, Cease would be here (in his prime for 2 more full seasons).

It's a simple calculus based the composition of our org talent and draft strategies for the last 5 years. We don't have enough starting pitching in the org to seriously challenge for a World Series, this season or for the foreseeable future. Of the NINE top 100 guys, only 2 are pitchers, we who is our most talent pitcher in the ENTIRE organizations, is getting ready to graduate off that list AND the other has serious questions whether he will even make it as a starting pitcher and will turn 25 during this current season.

Can you tell me where the pitching will come from other than the hopes of middle of the rotation type guys all of a sudden catch fire and magically pitch above their heads in the postseason.

Our reality is that we have to win 3 rounds in the AL just to get to the World Series. Have you seriously looked around at our other AL competitors rotations and who they will be running out on the bump in a projected series. Going into a series with the likes of Bradish, Kremer, Gibson, or Wells with have us being a serious underdog. IMO we have way TOO MUCH talent now to ever settle in the immediate future for being outgunned in a postseason fight. There is literally no reason for it.

Now I said all of this and haven't even brought up the issue of redundancy within our positional prospects. Like how do you suggest that we fit the THREE AAA Major League ready guys that we have now on this roster. Show me where all 3 of Cowser, Ortiz, and Westburg get regular ABs on this team. Do you think it's prudent to use top 100 prospects as bench or platoon players?

[Alasdaire]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

Could you explain with NINE top 100 prospects how we could ever "go all in" or risk "mortgaging the future"?

My friend, a trade for an ace like Cease will cost maybe 3 top 100 guys. We may be able to get Eduardo Rodriguez given his contract situation for one or none. If you combine BOTH of those trades together (which is highly unlikely that we do) we would still have 5 top 100 prospects PLUS one of the best rotation in baseball.

And even after Eduardo opted out at the end of the season, Cease would be here (in his prime for 2 more full seasons).

It's a simple calculus based the composition of our org talent and draft strategies for the last 5 years. We don't have enough starting pitching in the org to seriously challenge for a World Series, this season or for the foreseeable future. Of the NINE top 100 guys, only 2 are pitchers, we who is our most talent pitcher in the ENTIRE organizations, is getting ready to graduate off that list AND the other has serious questions whether he will even make it as a starting pitcher and will turn 25 during this current season.

Can you tell me where the pitching will come from other than the hopes of middle of the rotation type guys all of a sudden catch fire and magically pitch above their heads in the postseason.

Our reality is that we have to win 3 rounds in the AL just to get to the World Series. Have you seriously looked around at our other AL competitors rotations and who they will be running out on the bump in a projected series. Going into a series with the likes of Bradish, Kremer, Gibson, or Wells with have us being a serious underdog. IMO we have way TOO MUCH talent now to ever settle in the immediate future for being outgunned in a postseason fight. There is literally no reason for it.

Now I said all of this and haven't even brought up the issue of redundancy within our positional prospects. Like how do you suggest that we fit the THREE AAA Major League ready guys that we have now on this roster. Show me where all 3 of Cowser, Ortiz, and Westburg get regular ABs on this team. Do you think it's prudent to use top 100 prospects as bench or platoon players?

They've pieced together enough pitching since the middle of last year and this year to be in contention. Do I think it would be enough to get us a pennant? No.

But I honestly don't think we're at the point yet where we need to be thinking about how our rotation is going to get through four rounds of the playoffs. Because we really don't know what we have yet. Adley is going to be good. That's about all we know about this team. We don't even know if we have the right manager.

So I'm not in any rush to work backwards from the premise that we need an ace right now to win the world series. If the right deal presents itself, then fine. But if it doesn't, then that's fine too.

 

[Camden Yards]

11 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

They've pieced together enough pitching since the middle of last year and this year to be in contention. Do I think it would be enough to get us a pennant? No.

But I honestly don't think we're at the point yet where we need to be thinking about how our rotation is going to get through four rounds of the playoffs. Because we really don't know what we have yet. Adley is going to be good. That's about all we know about this team. We don't even know if we have the right manager.

So I'm not in any rush to work backwards from the premise that we need an ace right now to win the world series. If the right deal presents itself, then fine. But if it doesn't, then that's fine too.

 

Well I hope Elias is actually thinking about how our rotation will look for a playoff run right now. It would be malpractice for him not to be thinking about how our rotation stacks up vs the AL playoff contenders. 
BTW since let’s say 2000, what are some of the “worse” rotations that have won a World Series?

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

They've pieced together enough pitching since the middle of last year and this year to be in contention. Do I think it would be enough to get us a pennant? No.

But I honestly don't think we're at the point yet where we need to be thinking about how our rotation is going to get through four rounds of the playoffs. Because we really don't know what we have yet. Adley is going to be good. That's about all we know about this team. We don't even know if we have the right manager.

So I'm not in any rush to work backwards from the premise that we need an ace right now to win the world series. If the right deal presents itself, then fine. But if it doesn't, then that's fine too.

 

Ok, first of all that pitching that helped us ‘contend’ last year, failed us down the stretch. Do you remember what happened when the Blue Jays came to Camden for that long series in September? (I believe day was a double header) …. They lined up their best against us and blew our doors off. Do you remember how our bullpen wore down during the stretch last year because they were overworked? I was at the Astros game on that Saturday night in September when we lost 11-10 because the Mountain gave up the game in the eighth and ninth innings because he was worn down and asked to get 5 out saves.

I think it’s clear what we have. No need for guest work. We have 1 guy with top of the rotation potential (who is a rookie) and the rest are middle of the rotation to back of the rotation type guys. That is where their talents slot them. 

Adley IS an all-star and one of the best hitters in the game now. That’s what his talent profile was and that’s what he is. Mullins IS a very good prototypical lead off hitter, the kind that is very rare in the game. Mount IS a free swinger who has very good power to all fields but lacks consistent plate disciple. Urias IS a solid hitter with good oppo power who plays Gold Glove caliber defense. Need I go on?

We have a lot of knowns and a few unknowns like Gunnar, Mateo, and some of the minor league guys who haven’t come up yet.

But what I know is that we are good and winning games. But we lack the type of starting pitching that will have good odds come the postseason. 

One of the biggest reasons that I am very much against “seeing how things play out this season with what we have” is because present opportunities are precious commodities in professional sports. The future has too many unpredictable variables to count on (like injuries and regressions). Plus we are on the clock with Adley. 4 more years after this season.

[sevastras]

Grayson has settled in well over his last couple of starts to be able to argue that he may be better than Cease of the course of the rest of the year. Cease hasn’t been all that dominant this year. I think we are discussing other peoples toys or wife’s are more attractive until you are stuck with them and wish you hadn’t traded in the one you had.  

[Spy Fox]

Behold, the Injured List of AL contender starting pitchers:

Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino, Tyler Glasnow, Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Robbie Ray, Lance McCullers, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and of course Jacob deGrom.

The good news is, this evens the rotation playing field somewhat. The bad news? Even with some of these guys back there is going to be a lot of competition for arms at the deadline.

[Bemorewins]

20 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Behold, the Injured List of AL contender starting pitchers:

Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino, Tyler Glasnow, Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Robbie Ray, Lance McCullers, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and of course Jacob deGrom.

The good news is, this evens the rotation playing field somewhat. The bad news? Even with some of these guys back there is going to be a lot of competition for arms at the deadline.

NOBODY can compete with us in terms of prospects. So that needn’t be a concern.

[Bemorewins]

24 minutes ago, sevastras said:

Grayson has settled in well over his last couple of starts to be able to argue that he may be better than Cease of the course of the rest of the year. Cease hasn’t been all that dominant this year. I think we are discussing other peoples toys or wife’s are more attractive until you are stuck with them and wish you hadn’t traded in the one you had.  

Don’t get me wrong, I love Grayson’s talent/potential. But he is a ways away from putting up a 2.20 ERA like Cease did last year my friend.

Cease does not come without questions and his high walk rate this year is a concern. But he is MUCH better than anything we have currently. His bad beginning to this year, would still be better than our best starting pitcher this year. 

[Spy Fox]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

NOBODY can compete with us in terms of prospects. So that needn’t be a concern.

I agree we can likely put together a winning package for any individual target. But the hotter the market, the higher the prices may get. 

[Alasdaire]

11 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

Well I hope Elias is actually thinking about how our rotation will look for a playoff run right now. It would be malpractice for him not to be thinking about how our rotation stacks up vs the AL playoff contenders. 
BTW since let’s say 2000, what are some of the “worse” rotations that have won a World Series?

Sure, if you're in the mix like the O's are, you obviously have to look at the competitive landscape. But what I'm saying is there's a point that perennial contenders reach when they have to look at how exactly they're coming up short and decide what they're willing to sacrifice in order to get over that hump. I don't think we're there yet. Nothing needs to be forced right now.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Spy Fox said:

I agree we can likely put together a winning package for any individual target. But the hotter the market, the higher the prices may get. 

Nice things cost more than things that are not that nice. It’s the cost of doing business. When you have as much as we have there is no need for a scarcity mentality. We can’t give away the store, mortgage the future, or do whatever irrational fear base suggestion that some people think. It’s really no possible when you have this type of excess. But with all of our abundance we are still poor in 1 area ….  starting pitching. If we don’t trade for it and you know we are not going to sign it, where will it come from beyond hope and magic?

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Sure, if you're in the mix like the O's are, you obviously have to look at the competitive landscape. But what I'm saying is there's a point that perennial contenders reach when they have to look at how exactly they're coming up short and decide what they're willing to sacrifice in order to get over that hump. I don't think we're there yet. Nothing needs to be forced right now.

No forcing required. All that is required is that we trade from the excess of our abundance.

With the way injuries work in sports, it’s a dangerous thing to play the next year/tomorrow game. Next year one of or several of our best guys could get hurt. And as we know just about ALL starting pitchers get injured young and old. 

Given the opportunity that this season is presenting to us, we need to look into taking advantage of it. If we have to give up 2, 3, or even 4 top 100 guys to get an ace we should seriously consider it. Especially if we can get that player on a cost controlled contract for multiple years. 

We have more than enough prospects to ensure our future no matter who we trade for.

When you are this rich, you really can’t go broke.

[Spy Fox]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Nice things cost more than things that are not that nice. It’s the cost of doing business. When you have as much as we have there is no need for a scarcity mentality. We can’t give away the store, mortgage the future, or do whatever irrational fear base suggestion that some people think. It’s really no possible when you have this type of excess. But with all of our abundance we are still poor in 1 area ….  starting pitching. If we don’t trade for it and you know we are not going to sign it, where will it come from beyond hope and magic?

I agree with all that. It'll be a huge missed opportunity if we don't see a deadline deal or two for top talent. Just pointing out that it's not as good to be a buyer when there are lots of other buyers competing for that asset— and we may be looking at that sort of market for SPs this summer.