Ohtani Rental?

[Malike]

13 minutes ago, scbalt52 said:

IMO, I think this is where people overvalue Ohtani for this trade, including the 'expert' reporters. Of course, Ohtani is more valuable than Machado was. But not as much as people are saying in most of these potential trades. If he was locked up for 2+ years, then yes. All trades would have to start with Jackson.

 

Since it is a rental, how much more is Ohtani worth than Machado for 2 months of baseball? Certainly some, yes. But I think 2 top 100 and another lesser piece or 2 gets it done. The Angels might want more "since it's Ohtani, the god, the legend, the best player in history...whatever" but then they won't get a deal done and have him walk for nothing.

 

In the system we have now, I'm not sure Bannon, Pop, or Valera crack our top 20 maybe even 30. That's 3 of the 5 we got for Machado. Diaz was a nice top 100 prospect and Kremer was solid. We took what we could get, rightfully so. Ohtani will take more but not a lot more. Kjerstad/Cowser and another top 100 should already be close for the deal, then throw in 1 or 2 outside our top 10. 

It's not that easy. I listed the numbers 83 and 97 of MLB's top 100 prospects for a team and have given their team 280M dollars of value. Hindsight is always 20/20 but the only thing Ohtani guarantees us is we don't have the players we traded for him. Nothing more. We can print the playoff tickets without him, basically.

I have no issue trading anyone, I think rentals at the price that Ohtani will command, because Moreno is basically a crazy person do not make sense for this team. Target younger assets with control, and if they aren't there this month, wait for the off-season.

[Spakman]

18 minutes ago, scbalt52 said:

IMO, I think this is where people overvalue Ohtani for this trade, including the 'expert' reporters. Of course, Ohtani is more valuable than Machado was. But not as much as people are saying in most of these potential trades. If he was locked up for 2+ years, then yes. All trades would have to start with Jackson.

 

Since it is a rental, how much more is Ohtani worth than Machado for 2 months of baseball? Certainly some, yes. But I think 2 top 100 and another lesser piece or 2 gets it done. The Angels might want more "since it's Ohtani, the god, the legend, the best player in history...whatever" but then they won't get a deal done and have him walk for nothing.

 

In the system we have now, I'm not sure Bannon, Pop, or Valera crack our top 20 maybe even 30. That's 3 of the 5 we got for Machado. Diaz was a nice top 100 prospect and Kremer was solid. We took what we could get, rightfully so. Ohtani will take more but not a lot more. Kjerstad/Cowser and another top 100 should already be close for the deal, then throw in 1 or 2 outside our top 10. 

Zero chance anyone does a deal close to that.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, RarityFlaherty said:

I agree. I feel like Kjerstad is probably going to be set up to go for rookie of the year next year.
 

How about Hall, Norby, Beavers and maybe another throw in? Probably doesn’t get it done, but that’s why the trade probably doesn’t happen. 

Does Hall have a lot of value right now? 
 

im just not trading top prospects for two months of anyone. It’s reckless if you are trying to remain relevant on a limited budget which is how the Orioles are playing it. And with the new rules the value of diving on purpose is lessened. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Spakman said:

Zero chance anyone does a deal close to that.

Which is why most of us don't think he's going to be traded.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Does Hall have a lot of value right now? 
 

im just not trading top prospects for two months of anyone. It’s reckless if you are trying to remain relevant on a limited budget which is how the Orioles are playing it. And with the new rules the value of diving on purpose is lessened. 

Hall hit 94.4 in one inning of work in the FCL.  That's still down ~2 MPH from last season in the majors.

I wouldn't give up much for him right now.

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, Spakman said:

Zero chance anyone does a deal close to that.

I agree .. Diaz was the centerpiece but there were red flags when we got him. There was limited power even though he hit the homers in that Milb all star game. Kremer was a good prospect but the rest of it was lottery tickets. Pop was swiped in the rule v and was impressive last year. This year he’s been hit by the middle reliever volatility. Despite having a similar WHIP his Bb9 and HR per 9 are way up.

but, you can say the deal yielded 2 major  leaguers, 2 busts, and the 5 guy wasn’t much either. 

 

[Number5]

27 minutes ago, Malike said:

I also don't believe Moreno would trade him, regardless of the package. He's shown repeatedly he's willing to cut off his nose to spite his face.

I tend to agree with you, but upon reflection, I think the fact that he came out and said that he won't trade Ohtani to the Dodgers  or to direct competitors (I read that to mean AL West teams) seems to imply that he would, in fact, consider trading him to a non-rival.  Otherwise, why wouldn't he say simply that he won't trade Ohtani.  The specific mentions of cross-town and division rivals would be unnecessary.  No?

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

I think Ohtani will likely pay for himself in increased revenue for the club that trades for him.  He's owed 12M or so?

 

That’s pretty much mathematically impossible.  Figure $50 per customer.  You’d have to sell 240,000 extra tickets in roughly 30 home dates.  8,000 tickets a game.  Not happening.  But at least it could partially defray the cost.  

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Number5 said:

I tend to agree with you, but upon reflection, I think the fact that he came out and said that he won't trade Ohtani to the Dodgers  or to direct competitors (I read that to mean AL West teams) seems to imply that he would, in fact, consider trading him to a non-rival.  Otherwise, why wouldn't he say simply that he won't trade Ohtani.  The specific mentions of cross-town and division rivals would be unnecessary.  No?

Did Moreno say that or are "sources" saying that he said that? I haven't seen any direct quotes from him, not that I've been looking too hard.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

That’s pretty much mathematically impossible.  Figure $50 per customer.  You’d have to sell 240,000 extra tickets in roughly 30 home dates.  8,000 tickets a game.  Not happening.  But at least it could partially defray the cost.  

I was including advertising and Merch sales.

Someone found an Angels quote saying he's worth an extra 20M so he pays for 2/3 of his salary maybe?

Maybe I'm wrong since I'd never buy a jersey but I think they'd move a ton of Oriole Ohtani jerseys in two months.

Also for attendance, if his presence leads to more home playoff games that would be a nice bump to revenue.

[Chavez Ravine]

14 minutes ago, Malike said:

It's not that easy. I listed the numbers 83 and 97 of MLB's top 100 prospects for a team and have given their team 280M dollars of value. Hindsight is always 20/20 but the only thing Ohtani guarantees us is we don't have the players we traded for him. Nothing more. We can print the playoff tickets without him, basically.

I have no issue trading anyone, I think rentals at the price that Ohtani will command, because Moreno is basically a crazy person do not make sense for this team. Target younger assets with control, and if they aren't there this month, wait for the off-season.

I think the value this time of year (if you can call it that) has shifted to the perceived too expensive to trade, older, on the downhill arc of their career trajectory. Everyone, even the teams out of contention, are looking to arbitrage prospects into MLB youth with control.

[Number5]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

Did Moreno say that or are "sources" saying that he said that? I haven't seen any direct quotes from him, not that I've been looking too hard.

I'm pretty sure that I read that he said it on a tv interview with the Angels broadcaster.  Who knows?  I was apparently duped by a fake news story attributing a quote to Ohtani, so maybe this was fake news, too.  LOL

[Spakman]

Very curious to see attendance vs Yankees this weekend. With or without Ohtani.

[Billy F-Face3]

Just now, Spakman said:

Very curious to see attendance vs Yankees this weekend. With or without Ohtani.

The Trade deadline isn't until after the series.

 

[Spakman]

Just now, Billy F-Face3 said:

The Trade deadline isn't until after the series.

 

Ohtani was a joke. Just want to see an increase in attendance. And trades can happen anytime by the way.