How much longer can we endure Mountcastle's and Mateo's OBP?

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

One of the best pitchers in the game started for NYY and we still "endured" to score 4 runs off him.  That same type of TOR SP that we're itching to unload prospects for. 

Mountcastle needs to be lower in the order until things turn for him (after Frazier and Hays).

The TOR starters aren’t going to have zero ERAs in 200 IP and they aren’t going to be great every single start.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Sports Guy

[sportsfan8703]

Can’t win a WS with Santa and Mounty batting 3-4. Probably not a playoff series. 
 

In house fixes would be to maybe bat Frazier lead off, Hays 2, Mullins 3, Adley 4

Can Gunnar develop into a MOO bat this season. Could Cowser lead off by the end of the year?  Could Jackson Holliday lead off and Mullins 3rd by the end of the year?

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Can’t win a WS with Santa and Mounty batting 3-4. Probably not a playoff series. 
 

In house fixes would be to maybe bat Frazier lead off, Hays 2, Mullins 3, Adley 4

Can Gunnar develop into a MOO bat this season. Could Cowser lead off by the end of the year?  Could Jackson Holliday lead off and Mullins 3rd by the end of the year?

So you want Frazier (not to take anything away from his current hot streak) and Hays to get more ABs than Mullins and Adley each game? What's wrong with Santander? I think he's had a pretty decent season (very good month of May, horrible April). 

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Mountcastle stung the ball twice last night. The first was a long fly out to the LF chasm. The other was a shot off the RF wall that was hit so hard it ended up as a single. 

Mateo I agree with. He has reverted back to a player with plus defense and plus-plus speed but offers no value with his bat. I think if there is any place on the diamond that gets a makeover, he may be the one who gets swapped out of a starter role.  

Mateo has hit .107 in the entire month .. 5 hits in May .. i don’t care how good his glove is, if he continues into June at that pace, he will be a bench utility/pinch runner

[wildcard]

If Mounty is replaced it will be with a lefty 1B.    Kjerstad is probably the next challenger to Mounty.

I agree there is a battle coming between Mateo and Ortiz for SS.    

[btdart20]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The TOR starters aren’t going to have zero ERAs in 200 IP and they aren’t going to be great every single start.

Agreed.  Looking through our game log, we've scored on aces/near aces - Cole, Manoah, Gausman, Ohtani, Strider, Fried, E-Rod, Sale, Eflin, Cease, Heaney, Sale.  We've struggled against deGrom, E-Rod, Keller, and McClanahan.  

The main points were around 1) if we score more runs (offense) than we give up (pitching/defense), then we'll be in a good place.  TOR SP are nice, but maybe there's more than one way to build a contender/champion?  Both for today and tomorrow.  And 2) the thought that we've "endured" the low OBP of Mateo/Mountcastle isn't selling the offense short.  Tweak it and there, sure.  But let's not miss the mountain of goodness for the nit-picky ant hills.

[RVAOsFan]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If Mounty is replaced it will be with a lefty 1B.    Kjerstad is probably the next challenger to Mounty.

I agree there is a battle coming between Mateo and Ortiz for SS.    

A few people here are pushing for Kjerstad at 1B and while I agree he could have a future there I would be very surprised if he plays 1B is the majors this season.  This is the first season he has seen reps at first and its not even every game.  I saw him in a game at Harrisburg and watched him totally whiff on a throw that short hopped him, not sure he is very comfortable there yet.  Not saying he can't or won't be good at first but I just have a hard time seeing it this year.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Mateo is another bad game away from a sub 700 OPS.  Crazy that he has fallen this fast.

I have been watching baseball for 57 years or so.  I’ve never seen a player go from one extreme to the other as drastically as Mateo has the last two months.  1.062 OPS in April, .262 in May.  262!  Are you kidding me?  That would be bad OBP, forget about OPS.  It’s unthinkable!  It’s worse than the average NL pitcher OPS, back when pitchers used to bat. 

Let’s be clear here: there is no level of defense, no matter how good, that can support putting Mateo in the starting lineup with a .262 OPS.   The only reason to leave him out there is the hope that he’ll bust out of this ridiculous slump.  He’s been worth -0.4 rWAR, -0.7 fWAR over his last 12 games, and that doesn’t even cover his entire slump.  He’s badly hurting the team’s offense right now.  If he doesn’t break out of this in another 2 weeks, I’d pull the trigger and make Ortiz the everyday SS.

Mountcastle is streaky too, but his bad streaks don’t come within 300 points of a .262 OPS.   I realize Mateo brings a ton of value with his glove, whereas Mountcastle does not, but right now Mateo is hurting the team much more than Mountcastle, who’s been worth -0.1 rWAR, -0.1 fWAR over this same 12-game stretch.  

In short, Mateo this year overall (and all last year) has been much more valuable than Mountcastle, but the level he’s hitting at right now is so terrible that we can’t carry him in the lineup a whole lot longer.  He’s been valuable enough in 2022-23 that we have to give him some more chances to break out of this slump, but we can’t wait forever.  He’s shown before that his slumps can be extremely protracted.  
 

Edited May 24, 2023 by Frobby

[RVAOsFan]

41 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Can’t win a WS with Santa and Mounty batting 3-4. Probably not a playoff series. 
 

In house fixes would be to maybe bat Frazier lead off, Hays 2, Mullins 3, Adley 4

Can Gunnar develop into a MOO bat this season. Could Cowser lead off by the end of the year?  Could Jackson Holliday lead off and Mullins 3rd by the end of the year?

I agree it is time to push Mounty down in the order.  I don't think we need any radical changes to the lineup to do that.  Gunnar seems to be heating up which could help with this.

Mullins, AR, Hays, Santander, Gunnar, Frazier, Mounty, Ortiz, Vavra

[btdart20]

Mounty should start to platoon with O'Hearn soon.  Their righty/lefty splits match-up really strong!

Mounty vs. LHP - .333/.354/.717/1.071

O'Hearn vs. RHP - .310/.364/.552/.916 (SSS - but his career is stronger vs. RHP too)

[Getz]

I hate watching Mountcastle's AB.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Getz said:

I hate watching Mountcastle's AB.

At least they are generally over quickly.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, IPlayGM said:

My issue with Mountcastle is 2-fold.

1. Too many non competitive at bats. Everybody and their brother knew late in the game last night he was going to get low and away sliders and had no chance.

2. These at bats are happening in the 3 and 4 hole.

I messaged friends last night saying our 3-4-5 is just not good enough long term. I think best case down the road some of the AAA will fill that role, but not initially and not for awhile. Think we are stuck with what we have in those spots for now.

Can't really disagree with anything you said here. Mountcastle is miscast as a middle of the order hitter which is why I was championing the Orioles need for a MOO this offseason. If Mounctastle is batting 6th in a lineup, that's ok if you are willing to live with the bad OBP and those bad streaks.

 

[Mr-splash]

31 minutes ago, Getz said:

I hate watching Mountcastle's AB.

Agreed. He has far too many non competitive ABs for a middle of the order hitter. He has a handful of ABs each series where you think to yourself hes not even remotely in the game right now. 

Edited May 24, 2023 by Mr-splash

[tntoriole]

.102/.143/.119  in May for Mateo’s 64 plate appearances.    A .262 OPS .