Memorial Day and the trade deadline

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You spoke first about what they have done. Now you are telling me about that will do. And I don’t dispute any of that. But my question was regarding the present. 

It’s also probably true that I put more stock into top 100 lists than you. To me, it gives me a gauge on how the game views your org talent. RIGHT NOW both of their Major League teams are awesome and have won World Series recently. They just don’t have blue chip talent in their systems at the moment. 

And to me that is absolutely ok! You can’t have it all most of the time. And if given a choice, I know which one I would pick.

It’s not that the top 100 lists aren’t important or show you things that are important but they aren’t consensus by all of the sites and there are a ton of talented guys not listed.

Right now, those systems are down but again, you have to have perspective and context to that. 

As CoC said, the Orioles easily could have more guys up here and not be nearly as high on the top 100 lists. 

When do you call guys up, how many have you called up, etc….thats all important.

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Yeah, it just hasn’t worked out the way he’s doing it.  LOL

I say that Westburg should be in the majors based off of what he's accomplished in the minors.  Are you disagreeing with that?  How often do you see a player with his resume that still has prospect eligibility?

It's not a matter of what is or isn't working. 

If you are comparing the Braves and the Orioles ability to develop prospects and are using prospects lists as evidence how they handle promotions needs to be considered.

 

[btdart20]

13 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

What odds would you give us in defeating 3 AL opponents in consecutive rounds with the staff that we have? Would we be the favorite in ANY ROUND against any of the likely teams that we would have to face?

I don’t know about odds.  But this month we’re:

1 for 3 against the Braves

2 for 3 against TB

3 for 3 against TOR

2 for 3 against NYY

That’s strong against playoff caliber teams.  Some/all? of those teams will get better through trades, but I like our odds of getting better internally (rookies, Means, Akin) too.  Maybe we make a big trade, maybe we don’t.  I think we’re a tough out either way.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I say that Westburg should be in the majors based off of what he's accomplished in the minors.  Are you disagreeing with that?  How often do you see a player with his resume that still has prospect eligibility?

It's not a matter of what is or isn't working. 

If you are comparing the Braves and the Orioles ability to develop prospects and are using prospects lists as evidence how they handle promotions needs to be considered.

 

I’d say that each team and situation is different and it’s not just whether Westburg has earned a chance.   

[owknows]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’d say that each team and situation is different and it’s not just whether Westburg has earned a chance.   

The reality is that Westburg has earned a chance.

The extenuating circumstance, is that Elias has one bad habit..

He grows attached to the half-eaten chicken boxes, and lint-covered gummy bears he pulls out of the dumpster on any given year... and is reluctant to give them up, even at the expense of the development of his blue-chip draftees.

Last year's sticky dumpster fodder was Odor, Phillips, Aguilar

He couldn't even give them up when they were awful.

This Year's dumpster fodder is an even greater dilemma.. as they are playing too well for him to release.. but if he hadn't been dumpster diving...

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, owknows said:

The reality is that Westburg has earned a chance.

The extenuating circumstance, is that Elias has one bad habit..

He grows attached to the half-eaten chicken boxes, and lint-covered gummy bears he pulls out of the dumpster on any given year... and is reluctant to give them up, even at the expense of the development of his blue-chip draftees.

Last year's sticky dumpster fodder was Odor, Phillips, Aguilar

He couldn't even give them up when they were awful.

This Year's dumpster fodder is an even greater dilemma.. as they are playing too well for him to release.. but if he hadn't been dumpster diving...

Odor was a cheap stop gap going into the year on a team with low expectations.   The trade of Lopez and acquisitions of Phillips and Aguilar were made by the GM based on his belief that he had a team that would likely not make the playoffs.    
 

I wasn’t in favor of Frazier but 8M is hardly dumpster fodder.  Gibson was another budget move.  Both seem to be decent moves in hindsight.   You seem to take it personal that Westburg and others are currently blocked.

[LTO's]

22 minutes ago, owknows said:

but if he hadn't been dumpster diving...

Finish that thought.....

[owknows]

18 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Odor was a cheap stop gap going into the year on a team with low expectations.   The trade of Lopez and acquisitions of Phillips and Aguilar were made by the GM based on his belief that he had a team that would likely not make the playoffs.    
 

I wasn’t in favor of Frazier but 8M is hardly dumpster fodder.  Gibson was another budget move.  Both seem to be decent moves in hindsight.   You seem to take it personal that Westburg and others are currently blocked.

I don't take anything personally. I have no skin in this game. And I believe Elias makes far more awesome moves than bad.

The trade of Lopez was one that I loudly applauded.. and I predicted Cano's significant outperformance of expectations.

As for the Gibson move.. I was (and remain) one of its biggest supporters. He isn't currently inhibiting the progression of players. The Orioles don't have a logjam of starters concerning them at the moment.

Nor do I fail to see the the merits of Frazier as a player. He's the kind of player I like.

What I am concerned about as a fan, is the impact that adding Frazier and others to the roster. Even though he is playing well.

Elias as a GM is unlikely to have a free spending ownership at the ready. So he's going to have to carefully choreograph the progression of his players through the minors and into the big club. He's drafted exceptionally well. And so he has a substantial bumper crop of talent knocking on the door. At each level.. And stalling at one level..  creates a problem at the level below.

The real worry though, is that because he's unlikely to have a big-spending owner.. he has to be careful to extract the maximum possible value out of each player as they progress though the organization. He's going to have to deal some players for certain. And if you're faced with that situation, you need to be dealing from a position of strength.

Creating foreseeable logjams... and having MLB caliber players unable to advance intensifies the pressure to trade resources. It furthermore makes it necessary to trade players with incomplete information, as it is uncertain how the players current blocked would perform at the next level.

All of these players progressing through the organization have many years of team control available, whereas the players limiting their advancement do not. And lastly... it place the team at a significant disadvantage with potential trading partners, as those teams are well aware of your need to trade players... reducing your bargaining power.

As a fan of the game, and as someone who enjoys musing about the strategic side of the game as well as the tactical, I think it is interesting to discuss these things.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Let's be honest here, the Braves has promoted players to the majors that Elias would still have in the minors.  The Orioles should have fewer folks on these lists.

I don’t disagree.

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, owknows said:

I don't take anything personally. I have no skin in this game. And I believe Elias makes far more awesome moves than bad.

The trade of Lopez was one that I loudly applauded.. and I predicted Cano's significant outperformance of expectations.

As for the Gibson move.. I was (and remain) one of its biggest supporters. He isn't currently inhibiting the progression of players. The Orioles don't have a logjam of starters concerning them at the moment.

Nor do I fail to see the the merits of Frazier as a player. He's the kind of player I like.

What I am concerned about as a fan, is the impact that adding Frazier and others to the roster. Even though he is playing well.

Elias as a GM is unlikely to have a free spending ownership at the ready. So he's going to have to carefully choreograph the progression of his players through the minors and into the big club. He's drafted exceptionally well. And so he has a substantial bumper crop of talent knocking on the door. At each level.. And stalling at one level..  creates a problem at the level below.

The real worry though, is that because he's unlikely to have a big-spending owner.. he has to be careful to extract the maximum possible value out of each player as they progress though the organization. He's going to have to deal some players for certain. And if you're faced with that situation, you need to be dealing from a position of strength.

Creating foreseeable logjams... and having MLB caliber players unable to advance intensifies the pressure to trade resources. It furthermore makes it necessary to trade players with incomplete information, as it is uncertain how the players current blocked would perform at the next level.

All of these players progressing through the organization have many years of team control available, whereas the players limiting their advancement do not. And lastly... it place the team at a significant disadvantage with potential trading partners, as those teams are well aware of your need to trade players... reducing your bargaining power.

As a fan of the game, and as someone who enjoys musing about the strategic side of the game as well as the tactical, I think it is interesting to discuss these things.

The Orioles are under no pressure or deadline to trade any of their prospects.   Performance at the major league level works both ways.   It could enhance value or decrease value but it’s fair to say that the majority of prospects lose value at the ML level which is why Mateo was a central piece in trades and eventually picked up for nothing.     

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RZNJ said:

The Orioles are under no pressure or deadline to trade any of their prospects.   Performance at the major league level works both ways.   It could enhance value or decrease value but it’s fair to say that the majority of prospects lose value at the ML level which is why Mateo was a central piece in trades and eventually picked up for nothing.     

Is it fair?

If Mateo had never been promoted would he have retained his trade value?

I don't think he would have.

It's possible he would have lost less of his value, but he also could have turned into an actual valuable ML player.

[tntoriole]

It is hilarious how some assume that Elias is somehow not aware of the assets in his own organization and their value  and assume he has some misguided emotional connection to “dumpster dives.”

That is the difference between fans on a board and a professional GM at the highest level of baseball. 
 

I am confident Elias has not only thought through every contingency mentioned here, but about 27 that we fans don’t think of. 
 

I will judge Elias almost exclusively on the results I care about most-consistent winning team at the big league level. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is it fair?

If Mateo had never been promoted would he have retained his trade value?

I don't think he would have.

It's possible he would have lost less of his value, but he also could have turned into an actual valuable ML player.

Is what fair?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Is what fair?

I quoted you.  I bolded the specific part that I was responding to.

 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

I don’t know about odds.  But this month we’re:

1 for 3 against the Braves

2 for 3 against TB

3 for 3 against TOR

2 for 3 against NYY

That’s strong against playoff caliber teams.  Some/all? of those teams will get better through trades, but I like our odds of getting better internally (rookies, Means, Akin) too.  Maybe we make a big trade, maybe we don’t.  I think we’re a tough out either way.

You my friend may be suffering from a strong case of recency bias? 

I’m very happy that we won these games against these teams. But you do have to acknowledge that the playoffs will be different. 

The Yankees (as just an example) have 2 and 1/2 aces on their roster. And really 3 because the 3rd guy has traditionally dominated us before Wednesday’s 7th inning foul pool shot.

If you believe that we will be favored or if you even give us 50/50 odds with our rotation against their’s in a short postseason series, that’s cool. I do not. I try to be reasonable and view our team through the lens of more colors than orange and black.