If you could only keep one of these 2 players...

[clapdiddy]

1 minute ago, Sanity Check said:

Why do folks follow up "gut feel" comments with amazing facts to the contrary??

Well done with the analysis.  That's not very consistent at all.  Right now, I'd trade both of them.

I do agree with this sentiment.   I'd take Urias over Mateo, but I'd lose little sleep over losing either or both of them. 

I think Ortiz would be almost as good as Mateo at shortstop and would likely hit more.

[Aristotelian]

Assuming fair return for the other, I think Mateo is perfectly suited to be a bench defense sub/pinch runner/utility player. I would be inclined to trade Urias, leaving us with Gunnar, Ortiz, Westburg, and Frazier as options to be the starters. But I could also see the case for trading Ortiz or Westburg for bigger return. Lots of options.

[vab]

Good point on Mateo but is he arb. eligible after this year? I don't see this club paying arbitration level salary for a utility IF/pinch runner. 

[24fps]

Mateo and it's not even close for me because of the tools.  Urias is a solid, very respectable player but he doesn't provide a difference-making quality that separates him like Mateo's speed and defensive prowess. 

I'm pretty sure one (or more) of Westburg/Ortiz/Norby would be a fully adequate replacement for Urias and likely better than fairly soon.

[Go_Os]

Mateo's speed is special and he's a good defender.  Urias is a good bench player since he can play many positions and has an elite glove, but we have a cheaper version with more upside in Joey Ortiz.

[Spy Fox]

I'm keeping Mateo. 

Urias might be a better baseball player overall, but his skills are more easily replicable by our other infield prospects. We're not getting Mateo's speed anywhere else, and not getting his defense from anyone but Ortiz, so I see him as more valuable to keep around as a utility/bench/backup guy once some of our other guys graduate. 

Of course, there's a decent chance neither of them are Orioles by the second half of '24. 

[Fiver6565]

I'd got Mateo for the speed factor, and defense.  Urias yes won a gold glove and is a very reliable defender, but he's not in Mateo's class defensively (not sure of def stats support this, full disclosure) and the speed is a skillset that is not really replicated elsewhere on the roster or the high minors, while Urias' skills kind of are (Westburg).

[Frobby]

Urias is WAY more consistent than Mateo, who has now had three stretches that looked like this:

5/15/22 - 6/23/22: .435 OPS (32 games, 113 PA.

8/24/22 - 10/5/23: .483 OPS (36 games, 123 PA.

5/2/23 - 5/29/23: .285 OPS (24 games, 84 PA.

I’ll admit that Urias had a .463 last April in 71 PA, but you won’t find anything as long or as putrid as Mateo’s three streaks.   It shouldn’t even be an argument as to who is the streakier player.  It’s Mateo, and it isn’t close.

Now, that’s not the end of the discussion.  Mateo is a premium defensive SS, and when he’s hot, he’s hotter than Urias gets   He’s a disruptive force on the bases (when he’s actually on base).   So, those factors are in his favor.

In their time with the Orioles, Mateo has been worth 4.7 rWAR, 3.6 in 229 games, Urias has been worth 6.3 rWAR, 3.9 fWAR in 247 games.   But Mateo was more valuable in 2022 and so far in 2023.  

My bottom line is that both are pretty valuable, and it depends on the needs of the team.  I’d probably keep Urias as the better long-term fit.  He’s more reliable on offense, and arguably more versatile on defense if we see Holliday playing SS in the long term.  And, he’s a year further from free agency and cheaper. 

[murph]

Seems like the consensus (not overwhelming) is for Urias being more valuable to the O’s.   I guess the next question is which one is more valuable to a potential trade partner and I certainly don’t the answer to that.  

[AnythingO's]

4 minutes ago, murph said:

Seems like the consensus (not overwhelming) is for Urias being more valuable to the O’s.   I guess the next question is which one is more valuable to a potential trade partner and I certainly don’t the answer to that.  

Right now Urias has more value to us and as a trade chip but IF, and it's a BIG IF, Mateo has another 4-6 week heater in June-July, that would be 3 heaters in basically 1 season. Combined with his defense and speed Mateo might have greater trade potential. As Palmer said, if Mateo could hit, the O's couldn't afford him. I don't think ME or Sig know which the real Mateo is yet. He is clearly trying to remake his bat, the end result is still in question, at least for me.

[Billy F-Face3]

11 hours ago, vab said:

Good point on Mateo but is he arb. eligible after this year? I don't see this club paying arbitration level salary for a utility IF/pinch runner. 

I'm glad you asked. Mateo is a year ahead of Urias in Arbitration. Might this become a factor in the choices here? it's important to have synergy with the entire organization overall.

Mateo has a more expensive salary than Urias. Their salaries...

Mateo 2023: $2 Million

Urias 2023: $720k league minimum.

 

2024 Arbitration Estimations...

Mateo 2024 salary estimation: $5.5 Million

Urias 2024 salary estimation: $4.2 Million

 

When thinking about team synergy, if Urias is traded, I do imagine that Westburg or Vavra can also fill in as a utility player.  Or maybe Vavra gets traded too? Hmmm....  (Not sure there's much value on the market for Vavra though. Plus that would put too many RH bats at 2B once Frazier departs). Ortiz is also capable of moving around like Urias. Ortiz can also play shortstop as good as Mateo, but I doubt he has as much range. But then there's also the fact that Jackson Holliday is rising fast through the ranks, and I don't think it would be good team synergy to have Gunnar switch over to shortstop if they intend for Jackson to play shortstop. Or maybe they have Jackson play shortstop?  There's also other middle infielders in the minors who could surprise and rise through the ranks the same way Joey Ortiz did.

 

I think it comes down to roster construction and organization finances. Making this decision has an impact on both the production on the field, but also the long term strategy of your roster makeup. It takes a vision to think about who you feel would realistically provide the best infield lineup starting on a World Series contender in the near future. (I believe the Orioles might within a couple seasons for some of the young guys to complete their development. If the front office supplements them and ties up the loose ends, it's possible that they could be a season or 2 away of being in serious contention to win it all.)

[Billy F-Face3]

1 minute ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Or maybe they have Jackson play shortstop?

I meant to say, "Or maybe they have Jackson play Second Base?"