Has Gunnar's struggles slowed the promotion of other O's prospects?

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Every player is different. Success or struggles from one player to another is not related. 

So are you saying there is no adjustment from AAA to the majors? And rookies are no different from established players?

[ledzepp8]

18 hours ago, wildcard said:

But "How'd Gunnar do?" may effect how many rookies Elias wants in the lineup at the same time when Elias is trying to make the playoff.   If Gunnar was hitting better Elias may decide its safer to call the next rookie up.

I doubt any GM in their right mind thinks like that. If Gunnar had come up and hit like Cal, there's very little chance that Elias would be like, "Oh I have to promote player A, B and C also because they'll probably hit like Eddie". It's just as likely that he's thinking, "Oh Gunnar has come on slow, I can't promote anyone else because they'll adjust slowly as well."

Now the overall point of not filling the entire roster with rookies is probably on point. I just seriously doubt that Gunnar's success/lack of success has anything to do with that, which has been pointed out in this thread.

[ledzepp8]

18 hours ago, Pickles said:

Why can't Gunnar?

Well he basically is.

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I didn’t see anyone saying anyone was poop, though.  No one made that argument. 
 

I also don’t see anyone saying that these guys can’t beat out mediocre vet players. Maybe except for the weird newcomer @Mr-splashwho has a mancrush on Frazier, but he’s an outlier. I think it’s clear that most everyone here wants Ortiz and/or Westburg up now. 
 

But it’s also perfectly reasonable to wonder about what those player’s shortcomings are. 

It’s not just this thread though.  (And he isn’t the only one)
 

There are plenty of people I see here or Twitter or whatever that completely question all these younger kids yet they are the same people who can’t wait to jump for joy because we have the #1 farm system.

Edited June 3, 2023 by Sports Guy

[ledzepp8]

7 hours ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I have no idea how the management works here.  I think the Chris Davis fiasco is still a constant shadow.

However, we're tied for the second most wins in all of baseball.  Which is astounding given our stat line.  The Giants stats are almost identical to ours and they're a game under 500.  That's where our stats say we should be.  

So something else is going on.  I don't think management is going to mess with the chemistry,  

What stats? Even our Pythagorean W/L still has us at 31-26. 

[Mr-splash]

29 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I didn’t see anyone saying anyone was poop, though.  No one made that argument. 
 

I also don’t see anyone saying that these guys can’t beat out mediocre vet players. Maybe except for the weird newcomer @Mr-splashwho has a mancrush on Frazier, but he’s an outlier. I think it’s clear that most everyone here wants Ortiz and/or Westburg up now. 
 

But it’s also perfectly reasonable to wonder about what those player’s shortcomings are. 

Frazier has been a better than league average player for his career. He's barely better than league average, but still, better than league average. Where are better than league average players coming from? The sky? Falling from trees? They aren't. Most top prospects fail, especially pitchers. Grayson failed in his 1st stint in the MLB. He will probably have a failed MLB career when its all said and done. Why do I say that? Because most top prospects fail. Like Palmer said, it's not likely a prospect will succeed, all you can do is hope. 

[Pickles]

7 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

Well he basically is.

As of today.  It's still early and things are moving.

I think a lot of things can be true at once.  One is Gunnar is struggling, and yet, he's still doing alright.  I expect Gunnar to be our best infielder by the end of the year; I expect him to be a better player in Sept. than he was in April.

The young guys in the minors are talented and have a role to play in the future of the franchise, but that role isn't necessarily an everyday one right now.  It's possible they could outperform the young veterans we have, but it is unlikely they could do so straight out of the gate.

Incorporating some of the youngsters is definitely a goal of this season, but so, imo, is making the playoffs.  And as long as we're on pace to win 100+ games, I'm not going to call for any widespread changes.  And frankly, as long as they're playing so well, you don't have much of a leg to stand on to demand them.

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

It’s not just this thread though.  
 

There are plenty of people I see here or Twitter or whatever that completely question all these younger kids yet they are the same people who can’t wait to jump for joy because we have the #1 farm system.

I’ll be perfectly honest: when the team is 36-21 I tend to give more deference to the people who built the organization than I would otherwise.  If the team was hovering at .500 and looking for a spark, I’d probably be banging the Westburg drum much more loudly.  Sure, you can argue that we’d be doing even better if we had Westburg up here instead of some other player.   But we don’t know that, and what the team is doing has worked extremely well to this point in the season.  So if Elias thinks we are better off keeping our powder dry with Westburg or whoever for now, so be it.  

Don’t get me wrong — I don’t think Elias is perfect and I don’t agree with every decision he makes.  But I’m just not going to complain a lot when the team he’s assembled is playing extremely well.
 

 

[Mr-splash]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not just this thread though.  (And he isn’t the only one)
 

There are plenty of people I see here or Twitter or whatever that completely question all these younger kids yet they are the same people who can’t wait to jump for joy because we have the #1 farm system.

 

The strategy is to hoard prospects because they are cheap and under team control. Most will fail, some will succeed. If you simply hoard and stockpile top prospects you're bound to find a couple who succeed.

[Pickles]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not just this thread though.  
 

There are plenty of people I see here or Twitter or whatever that completely question all these younger kids yet they are the same people who can’t wait to jump for joy because we have the #1 farm system.

These positions aren't as exclusive as you're making them out to be.

Yes, it's awesome we have the #1 farm system and so many good young prospects.

It's also true that most prospects fail, and appropriate caution should be used in regards to their future production.

[wildcard]

17 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Gunnar is 21. A learning curve was expected, but it was also expected that talent would win out. No sense of wasting that in AAA. Gunnar was a move for September. He’s just going to get better and better. 
 

Some combo of Gunnar, Hicks, and O’Hearn is a nice little 5-7/8 in the lineup. 
 

Back to the OP, I think Gunnar is going to lead to a quick rise for Holliday. Not just from AAA to the MLB. Holliday is about to be in Bowie. That’s pretty close to Gunnar last year. Just a level behind. Idk if that means we see Holliday in September, but it leaves the door open. 

We are not going to see Holliday in the majors this season.    The O's do not have to protect him from the Rule 5 draft this off season as long as he is in the minors.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

Frazier has been a better than league average player for his career. He's barely better than league average, but still, better than league average. Where are better than league average players coming from? The sky? Falling from trees? They aren't. Most top prospects fail, especially pitchers. Grayson failed in his 1st stint in the MLB. He will probably have a failed MLB career when its all said and done. Why do I say that? Because most top prospects fail. Like Palmer said, it's not likely a prospect will succeed, all you can do is hope. 

Eight full or partial seasons, 13.3 rWAR, 11.8 fWAR.

I'd say league average is fair, I would not say better than average.

[Mr-splash]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Eight full or partial seasons, 13.3 rWAR, 11.8 fWAR.

I'd say league average is fair, I would not say better than average.

Positive WAA. 

[sportsfan8703]

Just now, wildcard said:

We are not going to see Holliday in the majors this season.    The O's do not have to protect him from the Rule 5 draft this off season as long as he is in the minors.

How can you speak in absolutes?  I mean, we weren’t going to see Gunnar last year. I guess you’re right everyday until Holliday gets called up. 
 

Holliday is just a different cat. He’s not Stowers or Cowser. He’s more Gunnar. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

We are not going to see Holliday in the majors this season.    The O's do not have to protect him from the Rule 5 draft this off season as long as he is in the minors.

WTH?

If he is promoted to the majors he's going to be on the 40 man and won't be eligible for the Rule V draft.

There is 0 chance he gets put on the 40, promoted, and then they attempt to remove him from the 40.

You have to basically pull a Josh Hamilton to go 1-1 and be taken in the Rule V.