Tyler Wells 2023

[Just Regular]

Poetic for Wells to be up there for the last out after his first appearance rescuing Bradish and to some extent the pitching staff the first part of the season.

He didn't get to be part of the after Tampa playoff berth clinch celebration, so enjoy this one double 68!

[Hallas]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not worried about the velo. It’s his propensity to give up homers. He can be very good but he’s still tough to trust.

He's usually in the zone.  You can't really replace the best reliever in baseball, but he's not bad.  His HR rate as a reliever is about 30% lower than as a starter.

[Aristotelian]

One more thing about Wells as closer: he has an excellent changeup (which he showed in the 9th tonight as well as last night) which plays well vs LHB. He actually has pretty strong reverse splits although he is effective enough against RHB. I really have no idea how Hyde is going to play this but if you want a closer for the 9th regardless of matchups I can see the case for Tyler.

[LA2]

The abundance of choices on this team--gives me a little of that heady Braves feeling

The playoffs are unpredictable, but I'd love to see the O's go mano a mano with Atlanta--what an intense showcase that would be (to a surprising extent we held our own against them during the regular season).

Edited September 29, 2023 by LA2

[tntoriole]

I tell you what ..watching the postgame celebration, I suddenly realized..Tyler is HUGE!!!! He towered over others he was standing next to! 

[sportsfan8703]

If the team decided that Wells had just reached his innings limit and we just shut him down last year then I think the opinion of Wells’ 2023 season as a SP would be much different. 

We need a SP and a high leverage reliever for next year. What role is Wells in 2023?  What’s best for Wells and the team long term?  Is this decision going to be about Wells, or more based on what FA takes our offer?  Whether that be a reliever or SP.

People just write off Wells as a #5, but at the ASB you could make an argument for Wells, or Bradish, as who was our best SP. Wells was leading the AL in WHIP. Wells showed last year that he can be at least a #3 type of SP.

Everyone has known since we took him in the Rule 5 draft that it was going to take some time to build him up to even 150-160 IP. Ok, so big deal… that didn’t happen in year two, and his first year starting full time. I don’t think the org just gives up on him as a SP like a lot have. I think he could be an All Star Closer. He would be our 3rd closer in a row to do that. That’s a very valuable role for us. But give me the SP that only gave up more than 3 ER three times in his first 18 starts. 

[wildcard]

30 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If the team decided that Wells had just reached his innings limit and we just shut him down last year then I think the opinion of Wells’ 2023 season as a SP would be much different. 

We need a SP and a high leverage reliever for next year. What role is Wells in 2023?  What’s best for Wells and the team long term?  Is this decision going to be about Wells, or more based on what FA takes our offer?  Whether that be a reliever or SP.

People just write off Wells as a #5, but at the ASB you could make an argument for Wells, or Bradish, as who was our best SP. Wells was leading the AL in WHIP. Wells showed last year that he can be at least a #3 type of SP.

Everyone has known since we took him in the Rule 5 draft that it was going to take some time to build him up to even 150-160 IP. Ok, so big deal… that didn’t happen in year two, and his first year starting full time. I don’t think the org just gives up on him as a SP like a lot have. I think he could be an All Star Closer. He would be our 3rd closer in a row to do that. That’s a very valuable role for us. But give me the SP that only gave up more than 3 ER three times in his first 18 starts. 

The O's go into ST with Wells, Hall, Irvin and whoever they acquire competing for the 5th starter position.   Wells is going to be the best coming out of ST in all probability.

Hall in high leverage spot in the pen.  Irvin in long relief.

[sportsfan8703]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's go into ST with Wells, Hall, Irvin and whoever they acquire competing for the 5th starter position.   Wells is going to be the best coming out of ST in all probability.

Hall in high leverage spot in the pen.  Irvin in long relief.

I think that’s the most realistic scenario, but we’d need to sign a FA closer. What would Cano’s season looked like if Bautista didn’t start stranding his runners and bailing him out post July?  The team wasn’t phased too much by Bautista’s injury but our offense popped off and maybe that was because some other teams had given up. 

I think Wells is a SP. So we need a reliever. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If the team decided that Wells had just reached his innings limit and we just shut him down last year then I think the opinion of Wells’ 2023 season as a SP would be much different. 

We need a SP and a high leverage reliever for next year. What role is Wells in 2023?  What’s best for Wells and the team long term?  Is this decision going to be about Wells, or more based on what FA takes our offer?  Whether that be a reliever or SP.

People just write off Wells as a #5, but at the ASB you could make an argument for Wells, or Bradish, as who was our best SP. Wells was leading the AL in WHIP. Wells showed last year that he can be at least a #3 type of SP.

Everyone has known since we took him in the Rule 5 draft that it was going to take some time to build him up to even 150-160 IP. Ok, so big deal… that didn’t happen in year two, and his first year starting full time. I don’t think the org just gives up on him as a SP like a lot have. I think he could be an All Star Closer. He would be our 3rd closer in a row to do that. That’s a very valuable role for us. But give me the SP that only gave up more than 3 ER three times in his first 18 starts. 

I loved what Wells did in the first half last year.  I loved what he did in the first half of 2022.  I loved what he did in the first half of 2021. 

But after three years, here are his career splits:

1st half: 231.2 IP, 3.42 ERA

2nd half: 47.2 IP, 6.61 ERA

No matter what role he’s been in, he’s been excellent in the first half and absolutely fallen off a cliff after the all star break, three years in a row.  

I’d love to see him prove that he can get through a whole year and remain effective.   But how do you plan for it?  What contingency plan to you have if the same pattern holds for a fourth year in a row?

 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I loved what Wells did in the first half last year.  I loved what he did in the first half of 2022.  I loved what he did in the first half of 2021. 

But after three years, here are his career splits:

1st half: 231.2 IP, 3.42 ERA

2nd half: 47.2 IP, 6.61 ERA

No matter what role he’s been in, he’s been excellent in the first half and absolutely fallen off a cliff after the all star break, three years in a row.  

I’d love to see him prove that he can get through a whole year and remain effective.   But how do you plan for it?  What contingency plan to you have if the same pattern holds for a fourth year in a row?

 

Haven’t you been paying attention to @wildcard?

He’s got it covered.

[interloper]

I think it's very nearly time to just make Wells a good late-inning reliever. And occasionally, a multi-innings savior out of the bullpen, which he's done now multiple times. Most memorably when Kyle Gibson basically pinned a medal on him to the media after a game last year. 

Wells is awesome, but it's pretty clear he lacks the stamina to be a full-time starting pitcher. I guess you can make the argument that last year was his first real shot at a full year of starting, so maybe he makes strides this year with stamina. But with Bautista out, the assumed incoming addition of 1 or 2 SPs, and a host of bullpen question marks, it would feel pretty comfy knowing Wells was out there in the 'pen. 

[Just Regular]

I think if the Sigbot is committed one way or the other, Wells already has that information for his offseason.

The Club had him run as basically co-No.1 with Gibson half a season, which I think everyone knew was too heavy a lift.

I am a little curious if he was the 5th starter and paced if he might be able to make it 30 starts, but given current personnel its better for the team if Irvin plays the SP5 role, and Wells gets to focus on trying to become a relief ace.     

If you filter for all 2021-2023 reliever results, he's there on the k-bb Page 1 near David Bednar, Erik Swanson and Evan Phillips.      You do probably want him not in the 9th inning because of the home runs.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&type=1&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2021&season=2023&stats=rel&sortcol=8&sortdir=default&qual=60&rost=1&team=0

 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

 

I am a little curious if he was the 5th starter and paced if he might be able to make it 30 starts

 

Isn’t that exactly what they tried to do in 2022?

[Tony-OH]

Wells was 28-years old and was gassed out around 100 innings. While he's built like a starter, and has starter stuff, the most innings he's ever thrown in one season was in 2018 when he tossed one more inning then last year at 119.1.   

I'd personally like to see him in the pen a a multi-inning reliever who can occasionally be used in a high leverage situation. Longterm that's probably his best and most consistent role.

Would it be the worse thing in the world if he did what he did last year and have a great first half and then see if McDermott or Povich is ready to take over in the second half? Guess not, but I'd rather that be a backup plan.

 

[Say O!]

16 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Wells was 28-years old and was gassed out around 100 innings. While he's built like a starter, and has starter stuff, the most innings he's ever thrown in one season was in 2018 when he tossed one more inning then last year at 119.1.

Great data points.  The build, stuff, and 1H results are tantalizing to dream about full-time starter, but that’s too much of consistent track record to ignore.

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I'd personally like to see him in the pen a a multi-inning reliever who can occasionally be used in a high leverage situation. Longterm that's probably his best and most consistent role.

Agree 100%.  Same thoughts on Hall too?

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Would it be the worse thing in the world if he did what he did last year and have a great first half and then see if McDermott or Povich is ready to take over in the second half? Guess not, but I'd rather that be a backup plan

Nice to have potential viable internal options this year vs completely reliant on midseason trade market which really didn’t see much *quality SPs moved (I view Verlander and Scherzer as more 1x aberrations than recurring pattern).