The First Rough Patch

[SilentJames]

The Orioles have opened June, and closed May, with arguably their first rough patch of the season. Dropping back-to-back series against the Rangers and Indians; taking two of three from the Giants only to blow a save and lose in extras to the Brewers. 

Mullins is out, multiple players are scuffling at the plate, as has the bullpen. 

We are in the middle third of the season now, the slog. The novelty of the new year has worn off, hot streaks have begun to cool and the reality of what the season means is beginning to sink in. I think Mullins going down has had a bit of a larger mental impact on the team than we realized, since then they seem to be playing stiffer, pressing. They don't look like the loose relaxed group we saw in May. 

The good news: 

This happens to every team, all the time, forever and ever, ad infinitum, ad nauseum. So what the Orioles are going through right now isn't major calls for alarm. There are ebbs and flows to every season and this first rough patch has still seen them avoiding losing streaks and at least treading water with the large amount of wins they have in the bank. 

The starting pitching has remained its consistent self. That right there will prevent a lot of losing streaks 

Hicks has decided to be more than serviceable, and that is a pleasant surprise. Honestly, McKenna has to be looking over his shoulder more than ever right now. 

 

The bad news: 

Mateo is still struggling, though he looks like he is on an ever-so-slight upward projection. He was likely never going to sustain his torrid April, but getting him back to respectability will be important.  

Urias and Mountcastle are bigger problems. Mounty is at least still destroying left-handed pitching, so he has that value going for him, but Urias has not shown a lot and looks like he could be playing his way out of the lineup. 

 

How the team plays and responds over the next two weeks is going to be key. They have a string of middling at-best opponents (before a 2- game short series against the Rays) but baseball has a sneaky way of finding ways for those teams to win games too.  Winning the next two before coming home for a big weekend series (as schools are letting out) would be real nice and ameliorate a lot of concerns. 

[Moose Milligan]

In regards to the bad news, I think Mateo is along the lines of Mountcastle from an offense perspective; He can be scorching hot and make you think he's turning some type of corner, but the lows are awful.  

Like I posted in the thread I started last night, at least Mateo brings a great glove to a key defensive position.  And speed on the bases, too.  If he's not hitting, I'm still not opposed to him being in the lineup in the 8th or 9th spot because he brings that glove and, in the off chance he gets on base, he can be a terror.  

Mountcastle, as you mentioned (and I overlooked) can hit lefties.  But I don't think that's really enough to keep him in the lineup against, you know, righties.  I might have a stroke if he's in the lineup today against Burnes.   Having BOTH Mountcastle and Mateo in the lineup when they're scuffling is a hard pill to swallow, you're looking at 6-8 automatic outs.

I would be a bit hesitant to write off Urias, I think he's shown enough to keep getting some playing time.  

In regards to good news, you're correct, they've been able to tread water in this rough patch.  They haven't COMPLETELY fallen apart and gone 3-7 or 2-8 over a 10 game stretch.  

 

[TopGunnar]

Already looking forward to 2024 hoping Holliday is our opening day SS and Kjersted at 1b

[SilentJames]

34 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

In regards to the bad news, I think Mateo is along the lines of Mountcastle from an offense perspective; He can be scorching hot and make you think he's turning some type of corner, but the lows are awful.  

Like I posted in the thread I started last night, at least Mateo brings a great glove to a key defensive position.  And speed on the bases, too.  If he's not hitting, I'm still not opposed to him being in the lineup in the 8th or 9th spot because he brings that glove and, in the off chance he gets on base, he can be a terror.  

Mountcastle, as you mentioned (and I overlooked) can hit lefties.  But I don't think that's really enough to keep him in the lineup against, you know, righties.  I might have a stroke if he's in the lineup today against Burnes.   Having BOTH Mountcastle and Mateo in the lineup when they're scuffling is a hard pill to swallow, you're looking at 6-8 automatic outs.

I would be a bit hesitant to write off Urias, I think he's shown enough to keep getting some playing time.  

In regards to good news, you're correct, they've been able to tread water in this rough patch.  They haven't COMPLETELY fallen apart and gone 3-7 or 2-8 over a 10 game stretch.  

 

I always thought Urias should have been a prime trade candidate over the offseason. Even though his value is low as it can be right now, I would still let him go for some bullpen support. The Orioles have better options right now and I don't think Urias is "on the next great Orioles team," if you will. I think Mateo and Mounty, with their struggles, still bring stuff to the table. Mounty's OBP is bad, his walk rate is bad, but he has been supremely unlucky so far this year. There is a 60 point difference between his WOBA and XWOBA, and a 100 point difference between his SLG and XSLG. 

for reference: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-mountcastle-663624?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[Baltimorecuse]

They played above their stats for two months.  Now they are returning to the mean.  

BTW:  Gunnar was beginning to hit RHP hard.  Who knows when he'll be back.  

We don't have the pitching  to carry a middle of the road hitting team.  

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, SilentJames said:

I always thought Urias should have been a prime trade candidate over the offseason. Even though his value is low as it can be right now, I would still let him go for some bullpen support. The Orioles have better options right now and I don't think Urias is "on the next great Orioles team," if you will. I think Mateo and Mounty, with their struggles, still bring stuff to the table. Mounty's OBP is bad, his walk rate is bad, but he has been supremely unlucky so far this year. There is a 60 point difference between his WOBA and XWOBA, and a 100 point difference between his SLG and XSLG. 

for reference: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-mountcastle-663624?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

We can agree to disagree...sort of.

I don't know if Urias is on the next great Orioles team or not, but I think he's more on the net positive side of things than he is on the negative.  Gold Glover last year and I'm not sure if the concussion he suffered earlier this year has had any adverse affects.  His OPS+ has been over 100 each year since he's been here.  

That said, I wouldn't be upset if he was traded depending on the return.  And that doesn't mean that I think we can get, like, a frontline starter for him or something delusional.

Mateo brings stuff to the table, defense and speed.  Mountcastle, for me, doesn't really bring anything to the table.  You mentioned he can hit lefties and that's good but it's like a fraction of a skill.  He's not good at the one skill (hitting) but he can be good when he's facing a guy that throws with his left hand.  That, IMO, is not enough to keep him around.

I've been hearing how unlucky he is for well over a year now, thanks to Kevin Brown, the charter member and president of the "Ryan Mountcastle Is Unlucky" club.  I'm tired of hearing how unlucky he is, at some point he is who he is.

He is 1453 at bats into his career.  His WAR is 3.3.  

And I LIKE Mountcastle.  He seems like a good dude, a nice guy.  I WANT him to do better but I've just had enough of watching him flail away each night.

If Elias, SigBot and Hyde got together and only agreed to play him against lefties, I'd be okay with that.  But for some reason, that seems to be out of the question.  I'm also not sure about keeping a guy whose sole purpose is to just hit lefties as a backup first baseman.  He can't play anywhere else and doesn't do anything else well.  It's hard to make a case to keep him if hitting lefties is really all he's good at.  

[Mr-splash]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

We can agree to disagree...sort of.

I don't know if Urias is on the next great Orioles team or not, but I think he's more on the net positive side of things than he is on the negative.  Gold Glover last year and I'm not sure if the concussion he suffered earlier this year has had any adverse affects.  His OPS+ has been over 100 each year since he's been here.  

That said, I wouldn't be upset if he was traded depending on the return.  And that doesn't mean that I think we can get, like, a frontline starter for him or something delusional.

Mateo brings stuff to the table, defense and speed.  Mountcastle, for me, doesn't really bring anything to the table.  You mentioned he can hit lefties and that's good but it's like a fraction of a skill.  He's not good at the one skill (hitting) but he can be good when he's facing a guy that throws with his left hand.  That, IMO, is not enough to keep him around.

I've been hearing how unlucky he is for well over a year now, thanks to Kevin Brown, the charter member and president of the "Ryan Mountcastle Is Unlucky" club.  I'm tired of hearing how unlucky he is, at some point he is who he is.

He is 1453 at bats into his career.  His WAR is 3.3.  

And I LIKE Mountcastle.  He seems like a good dude, a nice guy.  I WANT him to do better but I've just had enough of watching him flail away each night.

If Elias, SigBot and Hyde got together and only agreed to play him against lefties, I'd be okay with that.  But for some reason, that seems to be out of the question.  I'm also not sure about keeping a guy whose sole purpose is to just hit lefties as a backup first baseman.  He can't play anywhere else and doesn't do anything else well.  It's hard to make a case to keep him if hitting lefties is really all he's good at.  

I dont like his little mohawk thing hes got going on. If he wasnt on the Orioles he might come off as a little douchey.

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

I dont like his little mohawk thing hes got going on. If he wasnt on the Orioles he might come off as a little douchey.

Grounds for getting rid of him, I agree.  Anything douchey can't be accepted.

[Just Regular]

The Brewers are better than the Royals but in some ways I see KC as the more interesting series this week.

While scuffling, can we still win against one of the few teams diving for the bottom?     They still have a MLB team worst .295 OBP, they still have several 6.50 or 7.00 ERA guys in the rotation, Rosenthal is reporting they want to "attach salary" to Aroldis Chapman.

Bobby Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez are still there and dangerous.

Hopefully we can get out of Milwaukee without being swept, but even if that happens good play against a bottom feeder could still get it to a tolerable 3-3 week.

The really bad week is if a weak, hacktastic offense comes into Camden and has a party against burned out pitchers.

[clapdiddy]

5 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The really bad week is if a weak, hacktastic offense comes into Camden and has a party against burned out pitchers.

They beat the crap out of our staff the last time we played them.  We were lucky to win a couple of football-type score games against them.

[maybenxtyr]

I think a lot of people agree that they were playing a little bit above expectations in the first third of the season. However, the wins are there and now it's time to either "right the ship", or continue as is and see if they can overcome some of the setbacks that they've suffered recently. 

 

There's not a lot that can be done about the BP other than calling up Vespi or some of the others that failed. Cano is being exposed a bit recently and his and Bautista's usage is probably taking a toll on them. Maybe Hall can be a spark to the BP if they decide to go that route with him. And no, I haven't kept up with him in the last week so he could be failing in Norfolk.

 

The offense, that's where I have an issue. Without rehashing the arguments about prospect failure and such, there's at least some unknown answers in Norfolk that could replace some of the known issues in Baltimore. I have no idea what Elias is thinking, or waiting for. What we do know is, baseball is unpredictable and teams like Tampa, NY and Toronto are going to keep coming after them. Maybe by the AS break they fall out of it. Who knows. 

[Tony-OH]

42 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I've been hearing how unlucky he is for well over a year now, thanks to Kevin Brown, the charter member and president of the "Ryan Mountcastle Is Unlucky" club.  I'm tired of hearing how unlucky he is, at some point he is who he is.

He is 1453 at bats into his career.  His WAR is 3.3.  

 

I feel like this should be posted permanently somewhere on the site!

Mountcastle is a one dimensional player who brings some power but very little else. He's never hit for the average I thought he would because even though he has good plate coverage, he's never made the adjustments for taking that low and away pitch to RF. Instead he'll pull that pitch and roll over to SS or 3B. 

He hits the ball hard consistently, but he seems to hit the ball hard on the ground or too high which averages out to make his numbers look good.

His xBA this year on fastballs has fallen to .218. That's a concern as well.

At the end of the day, while WAR is not a perfect stat, the fact is he's not a very valuable player especially when you bring his below average defense at first base (1% arm strength for first baseman).

Mountcastle has really become a platoon right-handed DH type who may be able to provide some Benny Ayala type PH against lefties late in games if used correctly.

 Either way, I'm hoping to see Kjerstad play 1B a lot of AAA because I think he's the best long term option at 1B though Mayo and 3-4 years for now Basallo could be options. But we'll get there when we get there.

For now, O'Hearn and Mountcastle should be platooned.

[Frobby]

If this is what a rough patch looks like for this team, then we have a pretty good team.  4-6 is not that terrible.  

During the rough patch, only Rutschman (.976 OPS) and Hays (.854) have hit well, among our regulars.   Santander (.633), Henderson (.515), Mateo (.485), Mountcastle (.455), Frazier (.443) and Urias (.275) are all scuffling.  Urias in particular has looked way off his game since returning from the IL.  The bench actually has provided a boost, with O’Hearn, Hicks and McCann all contributing.  But we need our regulars to wake up.  

The starting pitching actually has been pretty good during the skid, outside of Grayson Rodriguez’s start that began the slide and the ill-fated bullpen game the next time his slot came up.  The bullpen hasn’t been very steady in this stretch, with Baker, Perez, Givens, Voth and Baumann allowing quite a few runs (though Baumann also has had some good games), and Cano being a bit vulnerable of late. 

As the OP said, there was always going to be a rough patch.  I don’t see any reason to panic. 


 

Edited June 7, 2023 by Frobby

[Tony-OH]

Teams go through patches like this as others have pointed out. 

The good news is the Orioles really have been in almost every game during this streak. Now, these close losses or blown save games always hurt more, but there is no reason to think this team is suddenly going to implode. 

The rotation has been pretty good overall and the bullpen has been ok, though they have been worked very hard.

If the Orioles would be willing to go with the hot hands more and be willing to sit players like Mountcastle more often, I think they have a chance to be better offensively.

I do think we will see Cowser and Westburg at some point in the second half and they should help as well.

[LA2]

Playing devil's advocate here:

The extreme RHP/LHP split this season (.551 / 1.017) is an anomaly in Mountcastle's career. In fact, last year and his 140-plate appearance 2020, he hit better vs. RHP:

2022: .741 vs. RHP / .693 (142 AB vs. LHP)

2021: .770 / .842 (188)

2020: .947 / .657 (30)

With O'Hearn currently hitting so well and Mountcastle so cold, I'd be glad to see something close to a platoon tried for two weeks, but his previous seasons' record leads one to think that the imbalance is temporary. I would hesitate to make any long-term decisions based on this season's performance so far.

Edited June 7, 2023 by LA2