BA updated top 100

[Alasdaire]

Conspiracy theory time: was it Gunnar's recent streak that got Mayo the nod as the final inclusion on their list? Gunnar and Coby are similar at first blush; both left-side infielders with loud power and big arms taken as overslot prep players within a year of each other.

The more general question is how much the success of prospects we're graduating influences the ranking of guys still coming up in the system. If this were the pre-2019 system, would Samuel Basallo really be getting a look by these services? The inverse could also be true with pitching if Grayson/DL struggle to carve out roles in the rotation.

A bias to keep in mind perhaps.

[maybenxtyr]

Glad to see Basallo getting some love.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

Willems and Fabian should have a shot at future lists.  Norby could be a candidate if he has a second half like last year.  Wagner & Beavers could make some noise as well.  
 

They could have 5 guys graduate this year and have 6/7 guys on the list going into next season including the #1 prospect.  That’s pretty wild.

Holiday

Mayo

Kjerstad

Bassallo

Willems 

Fabian

 

 

 

 

Norby is already on some lists.

Fabian could make midseason lists.

I think Willems has to wait until at least the offseason.

[sportsfan8703]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Norby is already on some lists.

Fabian could make midseason lists.

I think Willems has to wait until at least the offseason.

Yup. Willems seems like he’s going to really have to show because his body type. Also, it doesn’t seem like Catchers get that much love. 
 

Povich had also popped on some lists. Wagner and Beavers probably just need out of Aberdeen. 
 

We will also 1st rd that could be in consideration. Maybe not right away, but when you pick NCAA bars, they move fast. Unfortunately, Aberdeen is tough. 

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

Conspiracy theory time: was it Gunnar's recent streak that got Mayo the nod as the final inclusion on their list? Gunnar and Coby are similar at first blush; both left-side infielders with loud power and big arms taken as overslot prep players within a year of each other.

The more general question is how much the success of prospects we're graduating influences the ranking of guys still coming up in the system. If this were the pre-2019 system, would Samuel Basallo really be getting a look by these services? The inverse could also be true with pitching if Grayson/DL struggle to carve out roles in the rotation.

A bias to keep in mind perhaps.

You sort of left out a big part in comparing the two in that one (Henderson) is a superior athlete and much better defender when compared to the other (Mayo). 

[Alasdaire]

12 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You sort of left out a big part in comparing the two in that one (Henderson) is a superior athlete and much better defender when compared to the other (Mayo). 

Does that detract from the point?

I'm trying to raise a larger question about how the successes/failures of graduated prospects might influence how the farm system is perceived.

National evaluators might see a 3B the O's drafted out of high school blast a shot onto Eutaw and connect the dots with another 3B the O's drafted out of high school who also jacks the ball. Obviously there are differences between the two regardless.

To be clear, Coby absolutely deserves to be included on these lists. It's just worth asking about biases when looking at something so inherently subjective as rankings.

[Bemorewins]

26 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Does that detract from the point?

I'm trying to raise a larger question about how the successes/failures of graduated prospects might influence how the farm system is perceived.

National evaluators might see a 3B the O's drafted out of high school blast a shot onto Eutaw and connect the dots with another 3B the O's drafted out of high school who also jacks the ball. Obviously there are differences between the two regardless.

To be clear, Coby absolutely deserves to be included on these lists. It's just worth asking about biases when looking at something so inherently subjective as rankings.

Ask any national evaluator/scout/front office personnel/object talent evaluator and I think the response will be the same regarding the 2 players, they are not in the same tier in terms of talent and/or level as a prospect.

Yes they have some things in common, in terms of being drafted out of high school (Gunnar was a SS not a 3B) and have ridiculous power. But how they play the game and their profiles as players are not really similar at all. 

I can’t see any knowledgeable baseball person saying yeah, “Mayo kind of reminds me of Gunnar”. That would be like saying yeah Mullins kind of reminds me of Adam Jones just because they both played CF for the O’s. Two totally different types of talent.

[Alasdaire]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Ask any national evaluator/scout/front office personnel/object talent evaluator and I think the response will be the same regarding the 2 players, they are not in the same tier in terms of talent and/or level as a prospect.

Yes they have some things in common, in terms of being drafted out of high school (Gunnar was a SS not a 3B) and have ridiculous power. But how they play the game and their profiles as players are not really similar at all. 

I can’t see any knowledgeable baseball person saying yeah, “Mayo kind of reminds me of Gunnar”. That would be like saying yeah Mullins kind of reminds me of Adam Jones just because they both played CF for the O’s. Two totally different types of talent.

Do you think position players in the system are potentially getting the benefit of the doubt because of the success of prospects who came before them? Would Samuel Basallo be getting the buzz he is if this was the 2017 farm system? That's the question, not making a 1:1 comparison between Gunnar and Coby.

[Bemorewins]

32 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Do you think position players in the system are potentially getting the benefit of the doubt because of the success of prospects who came before them? Would Samuel Basallo be getting the buzz he is if this was the 2017 farm system? That's the question, not making a 1:1 comparison between Gunnar and Coby.

Got it. I understand now. 

Well my answer to that is no. I don’t think evaluators would look at the players and say look at player X because of his success player Y might do the same.

However, I do think there could and probably will be biases that develop based on the reputation of that particular system. Where evaluators say hey because team X’s system has done _____  maybe they know how to develop position players or pitchers OR they don’t for that matter.

IMO it’s still too early to tell in regards to whether our reputation is well earned or not when it comes to being able to develop position players. Adley and Gunnar are really the only ones that have been brought to the bigs thus far. Now in 3 years or so, if we have produced several highly productive position players (some of high pedigree and draft position and others of lower pedigree or high school bonus babies), then we will have more data to point to.

[jabba72]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Liberatore graduated off the list…Mayo is now #100.  Makes 9 for the Os

The O's have 9% of the top 100 prospects in baseball. 

[Flash- bd]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Ask any national evaluator/scout/front office personnel/object talent evaluator and I think the response will be the same regarding the 2 players, they are not in the same tier in terms of talent and/or level as a prospect.

Yes they have some things in common, in terms of being drafted out of high school (Gunnar was a SS not a 3B) and have ridiculous power. But how they play the game and their profiles as players are not really similar at all. 

I can’t see any knowledgeable baseball person saying yeah, “Mayo kind of reminds me of Gunnar”. That would be like saying yeah Mullins kind of reminds me of Adam Jones just because they both played CF for the O’s. Two totally different types of talent.

That may be true but a .917 OPS and .404 OBP at AA at 21.5 years old, with the physical tools he has, is nothing to sniff at. I think you could make a decent case he's our best prospect not named Jackson or Grayson (not saying I'd make this case, but it's at least there to be made). 

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

That may be true but a .917 OPS and .404 OBP at AA at 21.5 years old, with the physical tools he has, is nothing to sniff at. I think you could make a decent case he's our best prospect not named Jackson or Grayson (not saying I'd make this case, but it's at least there to be made). 

Very good numbers. But again, not in Gunnar’s tier as a prospect.

Grayson isn’t a prospect any more (well at least he doesn’t qualify because of time spent in the Majors). I would definitely take Cowser and Kjerstad over Mayo. Other than that (and obviously Holliday) yeah an argument could be made.

[Alasdaire]

41 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Got it. I understand now. 

Well my answer to that is no. I don’t think evaluators would look at the players and say look at player X because of his success player Y might do the same.

However, I do think there could and probably will be biases that develop based on the reputation of that particular system. Where evaluators say hey because team X’s system has done _____  maybe they know how to develop position players or pitchers OR they don’t for that matter.

IMO it’s still too early to tell in regards to whether our reputation is well earned or not when it comes to being able to develop position players. Adley and Gunnar are really the only ones that have been brought to the bigs thus far. Now in 3 years or so, if we have produced several highly productive position players (some of high pedigree and draft position and others of lower pedigree or high school bonus babies), then we will have more data to point to.

That's what I'm getting at, ie how much the system's reputation boosts the stock of individual players. Or perhaps in the case of pitchers, diminishes their stock.

The reason I'm singling out Gunnar is because he's the first real guy to come out of the system and test its mettle at the MLB level. Obviously Adley was actually first, but I don't think what Adley does will reflect much on the O's development system given his reputation going into the 2019 draft. So when Gunnar flahses like he has the past couple of weeks, maybe it's proof of concept to some that the O's know how to develop guys with a similar profile to Gunnar, ie another corner infielder with power, and that it's plausible the numbers these guys put up in the minors can be converted into production in the bigs.

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Liberatore graduated off the list…Mayo is now #100.  Makes 9 for the Os

Rodriguez graduated too but BA only uses the innings and PAs. He's had more than 45 days on the active roster.

[Tony-OH]

Kjerstad is three years older than Mayo and Mayo put up similar numbers at Bowie. Neither are a plus defender, but Mayo possesses a plus arm. I still like Mayo more a prospect.