And so itbegins

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think anyone here or anyone in baseball really thinks that Jonah Heim is going to be a better player than Adley Rutschman.  Just because we're at a snapshot in time where Heim is .6 WAR ahead doesn't mean anything, which you've already sort of agreed to in this post.

Just because Adley might not be an MVP candidate this year is meaningless.

I'll agree that they're running him into the ground.

So, just so that we are on the same page, considering you negative you always are about the Os prospects.

You are perfectly fine with Adley not being able to throw out runners, allowing more wild pitches, etc…and a total lack of power.

That is who you thought he would be and you are ok with that player going forward if that’s who he is, as long as the OBP is high?

[Moose Milligan]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So, just so that we are on the same page, considering you negative you always are about the Os prospects.

You are perfectly fine with Adley not being able to throw out runners, allowing more wild pitches, etc…and a total lack of power.

That is who you thought he would be and you are ok with that player going forward if that’s who he is, as long as the OBP is high?

First of all, you and I both know that most bases are stolen on the pitchers, not on the catchers.  If you want to have a discussion about how we've moved on from Buck's obsession with time to the plate and how we need to get back to that place in order for Adley to throw out runners to add value to his MVP candidacy, we can do that. 

I'm not about to flip out on Adley not being able to throw out base stealers in a year where the game has been changed in order to encourage and allow more base stealing.  That said, as it stands, he's in 10th place in the majors when it comes to CS%.  https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/catcherCaughtStealingPct

I think you're confusing wild pitches with passed balls.  Adley has precisely zero passed balls this year.  Again, I'm not going to flip out on Adley every time Bautista (who leads the team in wild pitches with 6 in 31 innings) airs one out over the umpire's head or spikes a splitter at 55 feet and it gets by him.  There's only so much he can do.

And yeah, I'm fine with a lack of power if he gets on base at this clip and finishes top 5 in walks.  Power isn't everything, I really don't care although obviously I'd like to see it.  I'd rather have him with an on base percentage hovering around .400, not making outs and keeping innings going.

Per @Frobby's point, the team has been winning ever since he came up.  That's the most important thing.  

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Moose Milligan

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

First of all, you and I both know that most bases are stolen on the pitchers, not on the catchers.  If you want to have a discussion about how we've moved on from Buck's obsession with time to the plate and how we need to get back to that place in order for Adley to throw out runners to add value to his MVP candidacy, we can do that. 

I'm not about to flip out on Adley not being able to throw out base stealers in a year where the game has been changed in order to encourage and allow more base stealing.  That said, as it stands, he's in 10th place in the majors when it comes to CS%.  https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/catcherCaughtStealingPct

I think you're confusing wild pitches with passed balls.  Adley has precisely zero passed balls this year.  Again, I'm not going to flip out on Adley every time Bautista (who leads the team in wild pitches with 6 in 31 innings) airs one out over the umpire's head or spikes a splitter at 55 feet and it gets by him.  There's only so much he can do.

And yeah, I'm fine with a lack of power if he gets on base at this clip and finishes top 5 in walks.  Power isn't everything, I really don't care although obviously I'd like to see it.  I'd rather have him with an on base percentage hovering around .400, not making outs and keeping innings going.

Per @Frobby's point, the team has been winning ever since he came up.  That's the most important thing.  

 

1) I’m not confusing anything. Frobby posted stats that showed he has allowed a lot of WP this year, more than last year. In other words, he isn’t blocking balls as well (as we saw the other night)

2) Frobby also posted stats that showed his CS% had taken a bigger drop than league average.

3) Acting as if it’s either power or OBP is pretty silly, as if there aren’t players who do both.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

1) I’m not confusing anything. Frobby posted stats that showed he has allowed a lot of WP this year, more than last year. In other words, he isn’t blocking balls as well (as we saw the other night)

2) Frobby also posted stats that showed his CS% had taken a bigger drop than league average.

3) Acting as if it’s either power or OBP is pretty silly, as if there aren’t players who do both.

1.  Wild pitches are a stat against the pitcher, not against the catcher:  https://www.mlb.com/glossary/standard-stats/wild-pitch  You can blame @Frobbyall you want, it doesn't change the definition of what it is and who the stat goes against.  The first sentence on this page is crystal clear "A pitcher is charged with a wild pitch"

As such, I really don't care how many "wild pitches" Adley has allowed because they're charged against a pitcher.  This is a fact, not your opinion.

If you want to write a letter to the official scorer and tell them that they should charge Adley with a passed ball instead of one of our pitchers with a wild pitch, I would suggest you do so.

2.  I don't care.  10th in the majors is still above average.  

3.  I also don't care.  However, you're the one who brought up the power vs. OBP trade off. Given one or the other, I'd prefer OBP.  In a perfect world I'd love for him to have great power and great on base skills.  

 

 

[RZNJ]

As much as I hate to agree with SG, he’s right on about everything except the part about running Adley into the ground.   He’s merely slumping.  His exit velocities have always been lower than you’d want.  He doesn’t impact the ball as much as a guy like Henderson.  He gets into as many hitter counts as anyone but still misses 3-1 fastballs more than you’d expect.   I’m sure the power numbers will improve just like they did last year but he’s got two swings.  The serve the ball into LF swing and the swing from your heels uppercut swing.   
 

As for his defense, he makes a lot of throws in the dirt and inaccurate to 2B.  It seems he doesn’t have the ability to both rush his throws and make good throws.   He definitely isn’t blocking as well this year.  
 

He’s one of the best catchers in baseball and I think he’ll wind up in the 20-25 homer range.   I just think he’s not the superstar some were pumping him up to be.

[OriolesMagic83]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

As much as I hate to agree with SG, he’s right on about everything except the part about running Adley into the ground.   He’s merely slumping.  His exit velocities have always been lower than you’d want.  He doesn’t impact the ball as much as a guy like Henderson.  He gets into as many hitter counts as anyone but still misses 3-1 fastballs more than you’d expect.   I’m sure the power numbers will improve just like they did last year but he’s got two swings.  The serve the ball into LF swing and the swing from your heels uppercut swing.   
 

As for his defense, he makes a lot of throws in the dirt and inaccurate to 2B.  It seems he doesn’t have the ability to both rush his throws and make good throws.   He definitely isn’t blocking as well this year.  
 

He’s one of the best catchers in baseball and I think he’ll wind up in the 20-25 homer range.   I just think he’s not the superstar some were pumping him up to be.

I am disappointed by his lack of power too.  I thought he would be a 30 HR bat.  He seems to make so many half swings.  Maybe just trying to make contact.  Maybe there are changes he can make in his swing to unlock more power.  The catching is elite.  The prevention of passed balls is elite.  The framing is elite.  There's not another catcher I would rather have than Adley.  I feel like Adley looks tired.  Maybe he was energized last year by the adrenaline of finally making the majors.  This year he seems to be worn down by the grind of playing almost every day, the lion's share of which is catching.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I am disappointed by his lack of power too.  I thought he would be a 30 HR bat.  He seems to make so many half swings.  Maybe just trying to make contact.  Maybe there are changes he can make in his swing to unlock more power.  The catching is elite.  The prevention of passed balls is elite.  The framing is elite.  There's not another catcher I would rather have than Adley.  I feel like Adley looks tired.  Maybe he was energized last year by the adrenaline of finally making the majors.  This year he seems to be worn down by the grind of playing almost every day, the lion's share of which is catching.

Except the numbers this year don’t bear out that he is elite in those categories.

I still wonder if he is similar to what Markakis (and probably most hitters) and that he is sacrificing power to try to get on base as the #2 hitter.

People say they would rather have the OBP. That’s wrong in that you can have both but I’ll take the extra 50 points in slugging if it means sacrificing 20 points in OBP.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I am disappointed by his lack of power too.  I thought he would be a 30 HR bat.  He seems to make so many half swings.  Maybe just trying to make contact.  Maybe there are changes he can make in his swing to unlock more power.  The catching is elite.  The prevention of passed balls is elite.  The framing is elite.  There's not another catcher I would rather have than Adley.  I feel like Adley looks tired.  Maybe he was energized last year by the adrenaline of finally making the majors.  This year he seems to be worn down by the grind of playing almost every day, the lion's share of which is catching.

I don’t consider his defense élite.  He’s very solid.    His throwing, particularly to 2B was never in the Pudge Rodriguez or dare I say Rick Dempsey league.   I am skeptical of the framing stuff.   Does he catch differently than last year?

I don’t blame catchers for wild pitches that are wide and you have no chance to block with your body but it’s my opinion that he was better at keeping the ones in front of him close enough to prevent an advance last year.

[btdart20]

Adley's offense and defense are pretty low on my list of concerns.  Maybe he hasn't been the future HOF we expected thru his sophomore year, but dude's been pretty good.  Can we get back to talking about Frazier?  Or BP usage? 

[CHIP]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

1.  Wild pitches are a stat against the pitcher, not against the catcher:  https://www.mlb.com/glossary/standard-stats/wild-pitch  You can blame @Frobbyall you want, it doesn't change the definition of what it is and who the stat goes against.  The first sentence on this page is crystal clear "A pitcher is charged with a wild pitch"

As such, I really don't care how many "wild pitches" Adley has allowed because they're charged against a pitcher.  This is a fact, not your opinion.

Yes, wild pitches go against the pitcher and passed balls go against the catcher.  However... the determination is a judgment call on the scorer.  Scorer's don't get to know what was to have been thrown or where to know if on a 'borderline' choice if the pitcher missed or if the catcher missed.  Either way, these two scorings only happen when a runner is on base and is able to successfully advance a base. 

Do any of you (Moose or SG... or Frobby) have data that shows "Wild Pitches Saved"?  You know, pitches that the catcher didn't have to block because they would have scored against the pitcher but the catcher made a baseball play to prevent that wild pitch and keep the runners from advancing?  

I have not found that as it would be an even further expansion of a judgment call.

[Mr-splash]

Adley sucks guys. This team blows. What a waste of a season. 41-24 record. I hate this team.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Adley's offense and defense are pretty low on my list of concerns.  Maybe he hasn't been the future HOF we expected thru his sophomore year, but dude's been pretty good.  Can we get back to talking about Frazier?  Or BP usage? 

Yeah, I want to talk about how terrible this team is.  They've just been pathetic all year and had a lot of luck!  Don't give me stats, I have my feelings! 

[Moose Milligan]

54 minutes ago, CHIP said:

Yes, wild pitches go against the pitcher and passed balls go against the catcher.  However... the determination is a judgment call on the scorer.  Scorer's don't get to know what was to have been thrown or where to know if on a 'borderline' choice if the pitcher missed or if the catcher missed.  Either way, these two scorings only happen when a runner is on base and is able to successfully advance a base. 

Do any of you (Moose or SG... or Frobby) have data that shows "Wild Pitches Saved"?  You know, pitches that the catcher didn't have to block because they would have scored against the pitcher but the catcher made a baseball play to prevent that wild pitch and keep the runners from advancing?  

I have not found that as it would be an even further expansion of a judgment call.

Like I said, if SG has an issue, he needs to take it up with the official scorer. 

[Flash- bd]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

According to fWAR, Adley is 5th in the majors, of all catchers who have at least 100 at bats. 
 

He is as close to 8th as he is to 3rd and he is nowhere near Sean Murphy.

We all believe he’s the best catcher in baseball and while I can’t find it, I believe there was an Adley prediction thread in the offseason and I’m guessing no one felt he would be a borderline top 5 catcher this year.

Im also guessing people didn’t see the defense as an issue or that we would be in mid June and he would have a total of 16 extra base hits. Last year, he had 49 extra base hits in 398 at bats, or one every 8.1 at bats. This year, he is getting an XBH every 17.6 at bats. 
 

And last year, he only had 2 extra base hits in his first 55 at bats and didn’t hit first homer until about his 60th at bat. That means, he ended the season on a pace for an XBH every 7.3 at bats. 
 

Anyone telling you they are ok with all of that is lying to you. Anyone saying they expected that is lying and if your expectations weren’t decreased power and defense, by definition that means you are disappointed.

Yeah, well said, this is my take. Basically if we're being honest all of us would say we're a bit disappointed. Not the end of the world and still early days in his career and hopefully the warning signs are red herrings and he ends up being everything we hoped he would be. But just as you say if they're not, we're lying if we say it's not below what we collectively and probably unanimously expected. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Flash- bd said:

Yeah, well said, this is my take. Basically if we're being honest all of us would say we're a bit disappointed. Not the end of the world and still early days in his career and hopefully the warning signs are red herrings and he ends up being everything we hoped he would be. But just as you say if they're not, we're lying if we say it's not below what we collectively and probably unanimously expected. 

And now people are moving the goalposts too.

Stuff like, well we are winning or his OBP is great or well compared to other catchers he’s good.

This isn’t what was being discussed w/r/t Adley this year. This year was about him being one of the 20 or so best players in the sport. A guy that could and should be in the MVP discussion, after being top 10 in a shortened season last year.

He hasn’t built off of last year. The defense and power are worse. People couldn’t wait to jump on Gunnar but yet they are afraid to voice displeasure about Adley when it’s so obvious that he isn’t meeting expectations.