FA starters available in the offseason

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Keep in mind that barring injury or a trade, 4 starter spots are basically penciled in for 2024 already.

Who beyond Wells, Bradish, and Grayson would you consider penciled in? Gibson will be a FA again. I don't think Kremer or Irvin can be counted on necessarily, although either could hit penciled in status with a good second half. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Who beyond Wells, Bradish, and Grayson would you consider penciled in? Gibson will be a FA again. I don't think Kremer or Irvin can be counted on necessarily, although either could hit penciled in status with a good second half. 

I don't think Irvin could be counted on, but I do believe Kremer, as frustrating as he can be at times, can be a 4th.  

Wells, Bradish, Grayson, Kremer, FA into 2024 is a rotation that doesn't have a true #1, although maybe Bradish and Grayson can get there.  

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Who beyond Wells, Bradish, and Grayson would you consider penciled in? Gibson will be a FA again. I don't think Kremer or Irvin can be counted on necessarily, although either could hit penciled in status with a good second half. 

Means 

[AnythingO's]

In all likelihood DET is out of it unless MIN and CLE both crater. ERod will exercise his opt out and get more than 3@$49M. So, what draft pick compensation does DET get when he opts out? That's the value of players DET can expect to get for ERod in a trade. I have wanted him since the last off season because the opt out limits the prospect cost. Trade Irvin to plug in ERod's spot and their choice from the Vavra, Norby, Prieto, maybe Stowers group. Is that worth more than draft comp??

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Means 

Yeah, I forgot about him. Obviously needs to get healthy but assuming he does, I agree he would be presumptively in the opening day rotation. I could see going with a "rental if necessary" approach, starting the year with Wells, Bradish, Grayson, Means, and Kremer/Irvin. That seems pretty solid to me (assuming everyone continues on their current trajectory), but if there is an injury or underperformer we could always acquire someone.

[e16bball]

Gray and Stroman are both very interesting based on their track record — and the fact that the league seems to consistently undervalue them — but I think there’s some serious risk there with them because they’re both so small.

Gray is listed at 5’10 and Stroman is listed at 5’7. Among the subset of starters shorter than 6’0 (not a big group), aging has not traditionally been kind. 

Pedro Martinez is probably the best short pitcher of all time, but he was never *PEDRO* after his age 33 season. Tim Lincecum was dominant at a young age, but he hit the wall (hard) at age 28. Johnny Cueto was a massive albatross for the Giants after a great age 30 season, although he did somehow put together two solid seasons at age 35 and 36 after wandering the wilderness for 4 years. Wandy Rodriguez was pretty much done after a solid age 33 season. Mike Hampton was basically cooked after getting hurt at age 32. Kris Medlen burned out at age 27 after a couple great seasons. Juan Guzman had his final year at age 32, when he started the season with us and then was traded for BJ Ryan. Rheal Cormier and Tom “Flash” Gordon reinvented themselves out of the bullpen, but had their last starts at the age of 29. Travis Wood was an All-Star at age 26, but was only ever effective as a reliever thereafter. Elmer Dessens was moved to the bullpen after a 5+ ERA season at age 32. Mike Leake and Tyler Chatwood were both out of baseball by age 31.

And then there’s Bartolo Colon, who remained an effective starter well into his 40s. So the lesson here is that if we’re going to sign one of these guys, he’ll need to immediately put on 100 pounds of bad weight before being allowed to take the mound.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Yeah, I forgot about him. Obviously needs to get healthy but assuming he does, I agree he would be presumptively in the opening day rotation. I could see going with a "rental if necessary" approach, starting the year with Wells, Bradish, Grayson, Means, and Kremer/Irvin. That seems pretty solid to me (assuming everyone continues on their current trajectory), but if there is an injury or underperformer we could always acquire someone.

For me personally, Kremer and Irvin would be depth/long relief guys and maybe even traded in the case of Kremer(just depends on things shake out with him the rest of the year)

If Wells breaks down and gets hurt in the second half, we may have to erase his name but obviously that’s not a discussion to have right now.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

And despite your obsession with this, that only means so much.

There are plenty of good pitchers available now and in the offseason and we will be fine if we get one.

I hope so.

[Sports Guy]

It’s easy to do because he’s been missing but I do think we forget about how good Means can be. He could be huge in September but more importantly, shaking off the rust this year bad being ready for next year will be huge for us.

[TommyPickles]

1. Julio Urias

2. John Means

3. Tyler Wells

4. Kyle Bradish

5. Grayson Rodriquez

 

Sounds like a pretty awesome rotation to me for 2024... And yes, I know Urias currently has a 4.94 ERA, but that's just because he is coming off two bad starts on either side of a hamstring injury. He led the NL with a 2.16 ERA last season (3rd in Cy Young). He had a 2.96 ERA in 2021. A 3.27 ERA in 2020. And a 2.49 ERA in 2019. 

He's a legit ace.

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by TommyPickles

[Just Regular]

Chris Flexen is DFA right now like everyone wants Jorge Mateo to be.

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

1. Julio Urias

2. John Means

3. Tyler Wells

4. Kyle Bradish

5. Grayson Rodriquez

 

Sounds like a pretty awesome rotation to me for 2024... And yes, I know Urias currently has a 4.94 ERA, but that's just because he is coming off two bad starts on either side of a hamstring injury. He led the NL with a 2.16 ERA last season (3rd in Cy Young). He had a 2.96 ERA in 2021. A 3.27 ERA in 2020. And a 2.49 ERA in 2019. 

He's a legit ace.

 

Urias scares me. He’s going to likely get a longer term deal than I would give him.  If the Dodgers let him walk, that’s a red flag to me.

[btdart20]

As far as FA signings go, I think Elias' budget/risk tolerance will not sign a TOR in the traditional sense at market rates.  He'll buy bulk/rebound/short-term types as needed until some nuggets reveal themselves internally.  

Which means the best SPs will be through drafting, international, or trades.

Drafting - We're not drafting at the top of round 1, so there's a greater chance we take an SP.  But I doubt Elias is interested in drafting an SP in round 1 as a general rule of thumb either.  I do hope to see an uptick in SPs taken before round 5 and continued over-slot picks as well.

International - This is how the Astros sustained their initial successes and I think this is part of "the plan."  Hopefully, we start to see some guys filter up the org.

Trades - This is part of "the plan."  That said, Elias highly values prospects.  But at some point, depth becomes org filler unless we cash out market gains.  This is the balancing act/trust factor that we're all curious about for all sorts of reasons.  Org building/buy-side trades is somewhat unchartered waters for Elias at the helm as well.  

Options:

    -- Rentals for 2023 for mid-tier FV prospect(s) - I suspect this is the main shopping list.

    -- The buyer/buyer creative trades come into play as well (say trading Santander package for a similar arb SP like has been speculated with CLE).  

    -- An arb/team control TOR (Cease type) - I can see Elias trading for this type.  But there's a FV limit of what I think he's willing to trade away.

    -- A 1-2 years of a contract TOR - I can see Elias trading for this type.  Even if AAV is high.  Not sure who fits this type.

    -- A 3+ years of contract TOR (Castillo type) - I don't see Elias trading for this length/size of contract unless a unicorn comes along.

    -- Prospects - I know many of us don't want to "just" get prospects in deals.  But I wouldn't be shocked if we're part of a deal that brings some type of SP prospect back.  Maybe dealing a Urias/Mateo/Stowers/Mountcastle independently or in a three-team trade for a prospect.  Maybe a prospect for prospect deal.  This is what Elias is saying when he's looking buy and sell type trades.  

* I do believe Elias when he says he wants to create a perennial contender.  Which (to me) means that he's not interested in trading away key building blocks to bump the odds at the edges of a window.  We're just starting into "our window", so I doubt he pushes any black chips (in my mind - Grayson/Jackson/Cowser/Mayo/Basallo) into the center of the table.  And blue chips (YMMV but in my mind - HK/Westburg/Ortiz/Willems/Norby types) will be selective depth pieces too (which might remove HK from the bidding.  The scale shifts a bit for our SP prospects even if they're not quite blue or black chip prospects.  Scarcity has a way of doing that.  Which might make a blue chip guy (Povich) valued like a black chipper.  The conveyor belt is moving.  I won't be surprised to see more restocking and continued reallocating or resources.

* "Irrational exuberance" quickly takes over as swing traders, Ebay bidders, or poker players knows.  That will likely take place with certain controllable SPs too (just like it does for FA SPs).  I don't think Elias will sway from his valuations/assessments of the situation just like he wasn't leading up to the last trade deadline.  Which could leave some/many of us disappointed if/when he doesn't land a TOR. 

* Elias/SigBot built models to determine value.  One measure that influences value is risk.  The model won't change in-season unless there is fundamental changes to the math (highly unlikely), only the data determining the value will.  Rules of Modern Portfolio Theory (especially regarding risk/return) seem to apply in the model.  "Time is the enemy."  "Be fearful when others are greedy.  Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett.  Elias is not chasing prior returns like many of us do reviewing our 401k allocation and the fund prospectus in our annual reviews (or like us as fans of a team). 

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Gray will probably get a haul after the career year he's having.  But he's been remarkably consistent over his career and I'd take a look at him.  I'd also look at Monty, Snell, Stroman and Hendricks.  I'm not saying I have to have any of those guys, but those would be guys on my radar.

I'd take a flier on Jack Flaherty and maybe Flexen.  Two guys that have had good seasons in their careers and still might have upside.

Mets just traded for Flexen.   They picked up Flexen and a reliever to help their beleaguered bullpen, in exchange for former Oriole minor leaguer Zach Muckenhirn.

[Moose Milligan]

11 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Mets just traded for Flexen.   They picked up Flexen and a reliever to help their beleaguered bullpen, in exchange for former Oriole minor leaguer Zach Muckenhirn.

It's a good day when you get to type Zach Muckenhirn.