Our Best "Touchable" Trade Bait is.........

[now]

5 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Mike Elias will certainly try to get the best deal possible, but you don’t get controllable top-tier talent for spare parts. And rentals can come at increased cost now, too, simply because the expanded playoffs create more buyers.

As the earlier poster noted, sometimes one team's spare parts (or second tier) is another team's top tier.

Edited July 8, 2023 by now

[deward]

1 minute ago, FlipTheBird said:

I would agree that Mayo’s stock has risen to the point where you’d ideally only include him if we were getting a controllable piece in return. Thus far the only name I’ve read about in most of these trade threads that would qualify there is Dylan Cease, and I don’t even think there’s been much word that he’s actually available. More just speculation seeing as the White Sox are a bit of a quagmire right now.

Cease has pitched like an ace once in five years. Unless the O's are convinced that they can get him back to something like last year's performance, then I don't think he meets the qualifications. 

[deward]

7 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

The purge of 2018 was an abysmal failure in large part because the people orchestrating it on the Orioles side had conflicting objectives (cutting salary became too important), and because they waited too long on some guys (Machado) which drove prices down.

The earlier stuff? Just poor organizational management. It’s how they wound up stinking for a decade and a half.

Mike Elias will certainly try to get the best deal possible, but you don’t get controllable top-tier talent for spare parts. And rentals can come at increased cost now, too, simply because the expanded playoffs create more buyers.

Some guys are only spare parts because they're blocked. Someone like Ortiz is a legit top 100 prospect who just doesn't have a place to play. That's not a spare part, that's a valuable asset.

 

[FlipTheBird]

Just now, deward said:

Some guys are only spare parts because they're blocked. Someone like Ortiz is a legit top 100 prospect who just doesn't have a place to play. That's not a spare part, that's a valuable asset.

 

Ortiz is, I was more addressing the many other names I’ve seen thrown around that are being pulled from the “players posters don’t like as much as flashier prospects” list.

[FlipTheBird]

6 minutes ago, deward said:

Cease has pitched like an ace once in five years. Unless the O's are convinced that they can get him back to something like last year's performance, then I don't think he meets the qualifications. 

If you’re not trading anyone except for a certified guaranteed controllable ace then you might as well give the front office a holiday. That player isn’t available from anyone.

[FlipTheBird]

8 minutes ago, now said:

As the earlier poster noted, sometimes one team's spare parts (or second tier) is another team's top tier.

But with 15 other buyers, there’s a lot of guys available. To outbid, the O’s may indeed have to dip into some of the prospects that are more prized here.

[deward]

3 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

If you’re not trading anyone except for a certified guaranteed controllable ace then you might as well give the front office a holiday. That player isn’t available from anyone.

If you're not getting a certified 1 or 2, then you're aren't improving the team enough to justify trading any of the top prospects. 

[FlipTheBird]

1 minute ago, deward said:

If you're not getting a certified 1 or 2, then you're aren't improving the team enough to justify trading any of the top prospects. 

What is a certified 1 or 2? I just want to get a grasp of how you’re qualifying it. Comparable names, maybe?

[deward]

38 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

What is a certified 1 or 2? I just want to get a grasp of how you’re qualifying it. Comparable names, maybe?

By 1 or 2 I mean someone who would be the 1st or 2nd best pitcher in a playoff team's rotation, and by certified I mean someone who has demonstrated that they can duplicate that kind of performance, not someone who has maybe flashed it for a season but hasn't shown that they can sustain it. Wells and Bradish have both been pitching like they belong near the top of a good rotation, but they haven't proven that they can be counted on to do that year in and year out. If I'm trading one of the top 6 or 7 guys, then I want to get someone back who has shown they can be relied on to pitch at least as well as those two. Cease, for as well as he pitched last year, hasn't shown that he can do it again. Not to say that I wouldn't be interested in acquiring Cease, I'd just be leery of paying a premium price for him. Giolito actually has a better track record, he'd fit the bill for me, except that he's a rental. 

[sportsfan8703]

Norby hit is 10th HR of the season last night. Pretty good for just a OH spare part darling. It’s also only his 2nd full season of pro ball. The dude is 23. 

[sportsfan8703]

12 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't see how one can deduce that Cole Irvin has ANY trade value. He's not very good IMO. Even in the starts that he does decently it's more about luck than him being good. He gives up a ton of baserunners in pretty much ALL of his starts. Heck, I wish that we could get him off of our team.

The same applies for Mateo and Frazier and Hall to some degree IMO.

Mateo can't hit, people/posters keep arguing that he can be a pinch runner/defensive replacement. But here's the thing - Rarely do teams ever replace their starting SS for a defensive replacement because the SS is usually the best defender on the team. When we have started Gunnar at SS, not one time have we needed to take him off of SS late in the game to replace him with Mateo. Even if somehow a team envisioned him in that role, that would not be a player to trade for. You would typically try to pick up that type of player on waivers. He simply doesn't have any kind of/enough value to draw trade interest.

Adam Frazier is overpaid and his production/capabilities do not match his salary. Also, he has not upside, so again, why would another team want him? 

And then when it comes to DL Hall, he has lost MAJOR velo this year, has never dominated AAA, will be 25 this September, still has control issues/walking way too many batters, cannot get deep into games at the Minor League level, has been sent down to the Rookie level to figure things out, AND ON TOP OF ALL OF THAT, he is off of most top 100 lists. I think if I know these things about him and am able to identify all of these red flags, other teams with professionals in their front office can do the same. I don't know why anyone would want him and even if they did you would literally be giving him away and selling at his absolute lowest value. (Which is little to none right now.)

I know you’re concerned about us being big time underdogs in each game of a playoff series but I just don’t think that’s the case. I did some digging and here are the odds for the 2014 ALDS series versus Detroit. 
 

Game 1 - Scherzer(-135) v. Tillman(+130)

Game 2 Verlander(-115) v. Chen(-105)

Cant find Game 3. 
 

The point being is that we weren’t as big as underdogs as people actually think. Just like this year. Just because the average fan doesn’t know who Wells and Bradish are, that doesn’t mean the bookmakers don’t. 
 

Looking around the AL rotations.. I think only Cole, Gausman, Valdez, and Pablo Lopez, would be favored over us at OPACY versus Wells/Bradish. 
 

Giolito would be nice though. But at what cost?  However, we’re only 1GB(loss column) back of the division. So Giolito wouldn’t just be a playoff acquisition. We can go for the division and home field advantage in the AL. 

Edited July 8, 2023 by sportsfan8703

[pdiddy]

Are we the only club that “waits too long to trade” players? Get those guys from someone else. Our prospects even below the top tier are good enough to make a team feel good about letting a rental go. 

I’m leery of the big swing unless Elias goes the route of giving up quantity over one or two top guys. This team is too deep and the playoffs are too unpredictable.

I don’t think there’s a 2017 Verlander trade to be had this year - don’t want us to turn someone’s pretty good pitcher into him because we are desperate.

 

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, pdiddy said:

Are we the only club that “waits too long to trade” players? Get those guys from someone else. Our prospects even below the top tier are good enough to make a team feel good about letting a rental go. 

I’m leery of the big swing unless Elias goes the route of giving up quantity over one or two top guys. This team is too deep and the playoffs are too unpredictable.

I don’t think there’s a 2017 Verlander trade to be had this year - don’t want us to turn someone’s pretty good pitcher into him because we are desperate.

 

We could trade bats in AAA/AA for A ball SP. Let someone else draft the SP, and develop it for a year. Plus it gives our guys a year of pro ball to evaluate them. Bradish was in A ball when we got him in the Bundy trade. 

[baltfan]

I don’t know who wants to hear it but Basallo or Mayo are our highest end touchable prospects.  They both are in positions where we have other guys slotted.  They also both potentially have big upsides which will be intriguing to teams wanting to trade for them.  I don’t want to trade eoether of them, but for a true #1 I would be willing to consider parting with one of them.  

[Roll Tide]

21 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you want to upgrade the pitching you will have to give up one, or more, players that other teams covet.

All of this oh no, not that one...that's going to get you a bullpen version of Cole Irvin.

Give up quality to get quality.

 No doubt….I just don’t expect Elias to be in on the rentals. I think he will look for guys that have some control. I think the rotation is fine just get some bullpen help.