Monday Moves (Can’t hold the Mayo and Bowie takes a Holliday)

[Tony-OH]

I think there is little to no chance of Holliday coming up this year no matter what he does at AA.

First off, Ortiz is killing it in AAA is next man up on the infield.

Second, Elias, is not going to start anyone's clock early. 

3rd, the Orioles are going to face a 40-man problem this offseason with guys that need to be protected. Putting Holliday on before necessary does not make sense from an org standpoint. 

4th, Holliday has done fantastic this year, but he does hit a lot of ground balls. He needs to work on driving the ball and getting more lift which should come with experience and as he grows into his man strength.

He's going to be a beast, but I think the earliest we see him in the majors is mid-2024 similar to how they handled Westburg and Cowser so they gain that extra year of control.

 

[Aglets]

Agree with Tony.   Zero chance Holliday is on opening day roster 2024.  I don't think he will get to Norfolk until 2024.

 

Would love to be wrong of course.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, ShoelesJoe said:

That would probably mean Mayo and Kjerstad are also on the opening day roster (or traded), which would be insane. Can you imagine an ODL looking something like this:

1. Mullins CF

2. Adley C

3. Henderson SS

4. Santander DH

5. Kjerstad RF

6. Mayo 1B

7. Cowser LF

8. Westburg 3B

9. Holliday 2B 

Kjerstad, Mayo and Holliday need to furnish another 2 months of evidence they are among the best hitters on the planet, but if they do I wouldn't mind an advance on that this September.

Iron sharpening iron and all, Austin Hays in 2023 isn't going to be outplayed by all those kids though.    Veteranosity and all it won't happen, but it would be kind of fun if the SigBot generated a tournament lineup in which Austin Hays hits in the same spot or lower as he does on the AL All-Star team.     The Texas Rangers and their 5 All-Stars had better outplay that group this year...they may not have many more summers to do that.

Matt McLain and Elly de la Cruz have provided AAA samples in 2023 similar in size to what Kjerstad/Mayo will grow to by Labor Day, and performed as ~Top 50 MLB Bats so far this season.

[Just Regular]

You really haven't earned your shiniest Raysian badge until you've used someone in the postseason and sent them to AAA the next year.

[Tony-OH]

20 hours ago, LookinUp said:

What was Means before they got him? Bradish? Kremer came around. Cano. Bautista. Perez (last year). Wells.

We've had success with the pitchers, but I agree, the talent to work with just hasn't been as elite or as deep.

I feel like they've had some success with the guys you've mentioned, but it's worth noting that they were guys with good arms that all came from other organziations at some point. None of them were drafted by Elias/Ciolek. 

Kremer and Bradish and Wells to an extent, are the biggest feathers in the cap for the Orioles development, but they all seemed to find that development with Holt or at least under Holt's tutelege. 

The Orioles almost totally reworked Bradish from the weird completely overhead fastball-curveball guy into the pitcher we now see. Without a doubt he's a pitching development win. Kremer also was reworked from mainly a fastball, curveball, hard change guy into the five pitch guy we see now. Kremer's velocity also has ticked up from when he arrived from the Dodgers. He's definitely a development win.

Wells has also been developed nicely and has really shown an ability to stay healthy and eat innings consistently despite his longball issues.

I think the Orioles thought they could find pitchers in the 10th-20th rounds with pitch shapes that they liked and mold them into major league pitchers, but honestly, that has failed so far. There's a reason these guys were still available in those rounds and they show up with a lack of command, lack of velocity on the fastball, or just a lack of a real major league out pitch. 

This is why this year's draft is so exciting from my perspective. This is the year they are now going with guys earlier in the draft who have more velocity to work from. Now velocity is not everything as guys like Kade Strowd and Ofreidy Gómez (hits 99 regularly) can attest to, but I'd rather start with better velocity and command, and teach the pitch shaping. 

If you look at the guys they took, they have have pretty decent walk rates even if their ERAs are not good. Now, they may be just guys who struggle with inconsistency and that's something you can not really know about until they've been in your system awhile. 

Even at the major league level, Mike Baumann is a good example of a guy with good stuff who is just very inconsistent from outing to outing. Will he ever put it together consistently? Who knows? 

Will the pitchers drafted this year do it? We shall see, but I like having the numbers to work from because right now, the Orioles minor league pitching is not very good prospect wise. Hopefully this will change if the Orioles can find a gem or two from this draft.

 

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Will the pitchers drafted this year do it? We shall see, but I like having the numbers to work from because right now, the Orioles minor league pitching is not very good prospect wise. 

I think most of us are in agreement. The O's need many more guys with high upside arms. It seems like that might have become a realization to them over the last year. 

I get that they can increase probabilities of success with position over pitchers, but I don't think it's that easy to just trade those position players for equally successful pitchers. Maybe that's what they're realizing. I don't know.

[Sports Guy]

I don’t think there is 0% chance he is the starting SS on OD 2024 but I agree it’s very unlikely.  Probably put it at something like 15%.

[jamalshw]

I think the timing of these promotions are interesting in how they impact the trade deadline as well. With Westburg and Cowser in the Majors and Mayo now in AAA and Holliday in AA, its starting to further emphasize the depth we have to trade from. Ortiz getting promoted and yoyo-ed a bit up and down while riding the bench in the Majors shows that he's not as high on the Orioles' board and could be a trade chip. The same thing can be said about Stowers compared to Cowser. And of course there's Norby who seems to be getting squeezed in the middle with Westburg and Gunnar in the Majors, Ortiz clearly ahead of him in the "next up" category and Holliday creeping up from behind. With Westburg, we had Urias and Frazier ahead of him. It's no stop gaps that need to be unseated. 

[LookinUp]

23 hours ago, jamalshw said:

I think the timing of these promotions are interesting in how they impact the trade deadline as well. With Westburg and Cowser in the Majors and Mayo now in AAA and Holliday in AA, its starting to further emphasize the depth we have to trade from. Ortiz getting promoted and yoyo-ed a bit up and down while riding the bench in the Majors shows that he's not as high on the Orioles' board and could be a trade chip. The same thing can be said about Stowers compared to Cowser. And of course there's Norby who seems to be getting squeezed in the middle with Westburg and Gunnar in the Majors, Ortiz clearly ahead of him in the "next up" category and Holliday creeping up from behind. With Westburg, we had Urias and Frazier ahead of him. It's no stop gaps that need to be unseated. 

I disagree.

I think Ortiz was yo-yo'd because he was already on the 40 man, but hadn't checked every box in AAA yet. He's doing that now.

Westburg wasn't yo-yo'd because they didn't want to use the 40-man spot on him while he was checking those boxes.

That doesn't mean one won't get traded. They definitely could, but I think it was purely about the 40 man.

[scarey1999]

I am assuming we’ll see an official announcement on these two guys as well as coresponding roster shuffling at some point later today or perhaps tomorrow. Similar to the big club, the core minor league teams don’t resume playing until tomorrow. I don’t think anything has been publicly released yet. 

Jackson was pretty coy when he was interviewed live during the Futures Game and asked about the Orioles young core and all the promotions they’ve made, but you could kind of see in his face that he already knew. 

[LookinUp]

Slowest sports news day of the year. I think MLB is missing an opportunity. Tonight should be one or both of...

1. MLB Draft
2. MLB Futures Game

You could get some channel to carry the latter for sure.

[MurphDogg]

Anybody else going to his AA debut tomorrow night?

Edited July 13, 2023 by MurphDogg

[Sports Guy]

 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

https://twitter.com/masnroch/status/1679917511649947648?s=46&t=SDcNQejH2tXpowiGf7p4Vw

A few extra moves in Bowie.

[Hallas]

On 7/11/2023 at 5:35 AM, Tony-OH said:

I think there is little to no chance of Holliday coming up this year no matter what he does at AA.

First off, Ortiz is killing it in AAA is next man up on the infield.

Second, Elias, is not going to start anyone's clock early. 

3rd, the Orioles are going to face a 40-man problem this offseason with guys that need to be protected. Putting Holliday on before necessary does not make sense from an org standpoint. 

4th, Holliday has done fantastic this year, but he does hit a lot of ground balls. He needs to work on driving the ball and getting more lift which should come with experience and as he grows into his man strength.

He's going to be a beast, but I think the earliest we see him in the majors is mid-2024 similar to how they handled Westburg and Cowser so they gain that extra year of control.

 

 

Do you say this because you think he needs to develop more and you think the odds of him making the necessary developmental steps forward are close to 0?

 

Given  how well he's played thus far it's not entirely out of the question that he OPSes 1.000 in Bowie/Norfolk and puts himself in the conversation for next opening day.  I wouldn't say it's terribly likely, but I'd put the odds higher than 10% for sure.  But I can see why you'd think he's going to maybe struggle a little more at higher levels if you think he still has development to do.

Edited July 14, 2023 by Hallas