Colton Cowser 2023

[Frobby]

Time for Cowser to just have a regular thread in the major league forum.  

It was great to see Cowser stroke a ball into the RCF gap with authority for a double yesterday.  That’s about the best swing he’s put on a ball since being promoted, and hopefully it’s a sign that he’s ready to start hitting.

His .291 xwOBA isn’t good, but it’s not epically bad like his .215 wOBA is.  He’s had some bad luck here and there.  Nevertheless, yesterday was the first time I’ve really seen him elevate and barrel a ball to the pull side, and I found that encouraging.  

 

[sportsfan8703]

He'll get ABs until Mullins and Hicks get back.  His struggles remind me a bit of Gunnar's, in that he's got some flaws, but it really seems like he's had a lot of borderline strikes go against him, and that MLB pitchers are just making really good pitches to him.  I just hope the ABs aren't too sporadic in August.  The future is bright and he will take Hicks' role next year.  

[Jim'sKid26]

Hitting in the major leagues is extremely difficult. It has been described as the most difficult thing to do in professional sports.

He's a young and inexperienced player trying to make a transition to playing in the MLB in the middle of a pennant race.

He obviously has talent.

Is it possible that the folks on this message board might have unrealistic expectations for his immediate performance? 

[vab]

Everybody forgets that just about all of these guys have struggled at first. Mullins got sent back to double-A after his first call-up. Adley didn't do anything for a month after his call-up, Gunnar struggled almost two months this season. Cowser will be fine, it's just going to take some time. 

[banks703]

3 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Is it possible that the folks on this message board might have unrealistic expectations for his immediate performance? 

1,000% and it's why I find it so entertaining when folks make comments about trading Cowser for Kjerstad. 

He's had good swings on balls that defenders have made great plays to take away base hits from him and he's been a little more passive than I would prefer but I think that has as much to do with the approach that they've been taught by the org as it does him struggling physically as a hitter. Off of the top of my head I can think of at least five of his ABs that resulted in a strikeout where either the called strike 3 was a borderline/out of the zone or another pitch in the AB was called a strike that would have resulted in a walk. 

It's easy to see 6 hits in 52 ABs with 9 walks and 2 HBP and think that he stinks. But guess what? 15% walk rate in MLB is considered EXCELLENT. CC's 9 walks in 64 PA = 14.1% walk rate. His K rate is obviously very high right now at 34% when league average last year was 22%.

The EV could be higher. Just like when Gunnar was struggling and I suggested that he start swinging at strike 1 to be more aggressive early in the count, I think that CC could follow that model. I see too many of his ABs where he gets behind in the count early then has to protect. That's a sign of an anxious hitter trying to be too perfect with his swing selection. He'll work through it but he can really only do that at the ML level. 

[RZNJ]

26 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Hitting in the major leagues is extremely difficult. It has been described as the most difficult thing to do in professional sports.

He's a young and inexperienced player trying to make a transition to playing in the MLB in the middle of a pennant race.

He obviously has talent.

Is it possible that the folks on this message board might have unrealistic expectations for his immediate performance? 

I don’t feel it’s unrealistic to expect a player with his minor league numbers to tread water like Westburg or struggle a bit.  He’s beyond that but no one is giving up on him.

[RZNJ]

Let’s be real.  Cowser has stunk up to this point.  Virtually, no one thinks it’s going to continue.

[Baltimorecuse]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Let’s be real.  Cowser has stunk up to this point.  Virtually, no one thinks it’s going to continue.

I think he'll peek at McKenna numbers.  

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I think he'll peek at McKenna numbers.  

At his best, in the future?  LOL

[Big Mac]

6 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I think he'll peek at McKenna numbers.  

If you mean that he will take a look at them just for reference, then yeah maybe.  If you mean that he will never outperform McKenna's current offensive production then I think you're nuts. 

[Hallas]

33 minutes ago, vab said:

Everybody forgets that just about all of these guys have struggled at first. Mullins got sent back to double-A after his first call-up. Adley didn't do anything for a month after his call-up, Gunnar struggled almost two months this season. Cowser will be fine, it's just going to take some time. 

Mullins and Adley are somewhat reasonable but Mullins had to be sent down for like 2 full years before he came back, reinvented himself as a hitter (abandoning switch hitting) and became a star level player.  That's a circuitous route to success to say the least.  Adley figured it out in June and showed significantly more than Cowser is showing now.

 

I don't think Henderson is a fair comp because he played quite well last September.  He struggled out of the gate this year but again not to nearly the degree that Cowser is right now, and when you combine his September and early-2023 stats they don't paint a picture of someone that struggled out of the gate.

 

[Hallas]

I have genuine concerns for Cowser going forward to the point that I'd seriously consider moving him.  He's not as fast as I would have hoped, and isn't an elite defender, or even an average one.  Generally for younger guys that are struggling out of the gate with the bat, I want to see them contribute with the glove or show some athleticism, and Cowser isn't doing that.  His defense and speed mean that he's probably relegated to a corner outfield spot or DH, and while he's obviously going to improve from here on out with the bat, the early returns on his performance are more than a little concerning given his lack of premium defensive value.

 

I'm in no way suggesting that he's a .500 OPS guy in the majors but I certainly think that his performance thus far has increased the possibility for me that he's not going to be able to translate his minor league performance to the majors as well as some others might.  I'd live with that if he could play CF, but he really can't.

Edited August 4, 2023 by Hallas

[theobird]

In my opinion, Cowser will be fine. I’d keep on playing the kid, because I think his bat will soon shine

[btdart20]

I anticipate a Christian Yelich-lite (minus those two outlier years) or Nick Markakis type career.  Along the lines of a .275/.365/.425 slash line.

[banks703]

12 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I have genuine concerns for Cowser going forward to the point that I'd seriously consider moving him.  He's not as fast as I would have hoped, and isn't an elite defender, or even an average one.  Generally for younger guys that are struggling out of the gate with the bat, I want to see them contribute with the glove or show some athleticism, and Cowser isn't doing that.  His defense and speed mean that he's probably relegated to a corner outfield spot or DH, and while he's obviously going to improve from here on out with the bat, the early returns on his performance are more than a little concerning given his lack of premium defensive value.

 

I'm in no way suggesting that he's a .500 OPS guy in the majors but I certainly think that his performance thus far has increased the possibility for me that he's not going to be able to translate his minor league performance to the majors as well as some others might.  I'd live with that if he could play CF, but he really can't.

Lest we forget that he missed time with a quad injury. I'm not making any excuses for him but pull your quad bad enough to miss work for two weeks then tell me how good it feels a month later.