Hicks activated, Cowser optioned

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The real surprise from Frazier is that his defense has been this awful. I didn’t expect that.

I expected better defense too, but OAA doesn’t match my eye test or other defensive metrics when it comes to how bad OAA ranks him. 

OAA -15

UZR -0.7

Rtot -9

Rdrs -4

Obviously, all of those are below average, but the degree varies drastically.  By my personal eye test, OAA is an outlier and I’m inclined to say Frazier is somewhere in the middle of these numbers.  Probably bottom third among 2B.

 

 

[e16bball]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I expected better defense too, but OAA doesn’t match my eye test or other defensive metrics when it comes to how bad OAA ranks him. 

OAA -15

UZR -0.7

Rtot -9

Rdrs -4

Obviously, all of those are below average, but the degree varies drastically.  By my personal eye test, OAA is an outlier and I’m inclined to say Frazier is somewhere in the middle of these numbers.  Probably bottom third among 2B.

Agreed. I’d say below-average fielding from Frazier, but -15 runs makes him the worst fielder in MLB not named Kyle Schwarber. 

I watched Schwarber out there belly-flopping around against us, and I’m pretty sure Frazier is not his closest defensive peer in the league. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Agreed. I’d say below-average fielding from Frazier, but -15 runs makes him the worst fielder in MLB not named Kyle Schwarber. 

I watched Schwarber out there belly-flopping around against us, and I’m pretty sure Frazier is not his closest defensive peer in the league. 

DJ Stewart doesn't have enough chances.

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

He has a BWAR of 1.7 -- 12th highest on the team.  

And that’s easily the inferior WAR and i largely dismiss it (for any one season) for all the reasons that have been discussed ad naseum

[RZNJ]

“The major difference between fWAR and bWAR comes from the measurement of fielding runs, which is the defensive output a player provides. Fangraphs uses a statistic called Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), while Baseball-Reference uses a statistics called Defensive Runs Saved (DRS)”

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, MCO'sFan said:

Me too. I will be surprised if he is on the 2024 team. I'm not saying he shouldn't be, I just think he won't be. 

I just think the vision is to keep the farm stocked and the payroll cheap. Looking at the current roster the guy I’d like to extend early is Gunnar. I’d be fine with Adley as well but, I’d like to see more power. 
 

I think Santander nets a price nice 3 - 4 player package. 

[btdart20]

53 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think there’s a good chance the 2024 OD roster is very much like the current roster with a lot of options and flexibility down in Norfolk.   I wouldn’t be surprised to see the current outfield return along with O’Hearn and Hicks with Cowser and Kjerstad both starting at Norfolk.

I agree that O'Hearn and Hicks are likely back.  And I don't think there will be a ton of roster churn either.  But I'd place the odds of a Hays or Santander trade higher than a Mateo or Urias trade.  (Partially value based, but mostly because Frazier's roster spot will be held for Holliday.)  Then it's a roster construct/spring competition between Cowser/Kjerstad with the other as the insurance policy.

[Just Regular]

It gets late early for middle infielders.

Fangraphs today sees 23 second baseman with 250 PA, pacing towards 300 on the year.    Frazier and McNeil are among the five oldest at 31 - Semien, Altuve and Merrifield the only elders.

We'll probably be saying this same stuff about Jordan Westburg too before the end of Arb.

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

“The major difference between fWAR and bWAR comes from the measurement of fielding runs, which is the defensive output a player provides. Fangraphs uses a statistic called Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), while Baseball-Reference uses a statistics called Defensive Runs Saved (DRS)”

Defense is definitely the primary difference, although just to nitpick a bit, Fangraphs now uses Outs Above Average (OAA) as their defensive metric of choice in their WAR computation. They backdated that change to 2016, so UZR will still be the defensive metric prior to that date.

That OAA sees Frazier as a massive black hole defensively is especially puzzling because over the previous 5 seasons (2018-2022), he was quite literally 2nd in all of MLB in OAA by a 2B (+24). He was above-average in each of those seasons, and was still +6 last year (top 10 in the league). 

For him to go from that to -15 in one season, you’d imagine he had to have lost a limb or perhaps his eyesight.

[OriolesMagic83]

I predict the O's trade one of Santander or Hays and sign the COF equivalent of Frazier.  i.e. an average COF who is coming off a down year.  I'm looking forward to the lengthy threads decrying his signing.

[Aristotelian]

On 9/11/2023 at 10:24 PM, Frobby said:

By the way, I knew we’d win this game when, down two runs, Hicks hit a ground single to LCF and stretched it to a double when he saw the outfielder play it too casually.   That showed me the O’s were going to concede nothing.   And then Frazier cashed him in with a single.  Boy I hate those guys.   So stupid to have signed guys like that.  

Nice game for Hicks and Frazier last night. Hicks was 2 for 3 with a BB, Frazier 1 for 3 with BB and RBI. Hicks in particular is quietly on fire, hitting .395/1.026 with 1 HR in September, up to .291/.388/.847 for the Orioles. That would put him ahead of Gunnar and O'Hearn for tops on the team. Hard to argue with that production even with Kjerstad and Cowser waiting.

[jdwilde1]

Doesn’t sound great for Hicks.  MASN broadcast said that he could not put weight on his ankle.  Hopefully he’s not out too long given that he’s been an on base machine since coming off the IL (something like .485).  With that said, it should open up some more playing time for Kjerstad which could be interesting.  

[accinfo]

1 minute ago, jdwilde1 said:

Doesn’t sound great for Hicks.  MASN broadcast said that he could not put weight on his ankle.  Hopefully he’s not out too long given that he’s been an on base machine since coming off the IL (something like .485).  With that said, it should open up some more playing time for Kjerstad which could be interesting.  

Well if they are going to bring up someone I would rather see Cowser come up instead of McKenna.  Let another rookie that hits lefthanded  be part of this magic.

[MurphDogg]

If Hicks goes on the IL, I would assume it is McKenna back up rather than Cowser, with a straight lefty-righty platoon of McKenna and Kjerstad, with McKenna coming into games late for defensive purposes in games he doesn't start.

Kjerstad hit lefties pretty well in AAA but Hyde has always seemed pretty committed to lefties not hitting against lefties when they can avoid it.

[Mooreisbetter27]

Hyde is saying cramp for Hicks. We shall see.