So... Can we win the World Series?

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Not with Frazier on the team. 
 

 

Hey @Sports Guy, did I do it right?

No, you didn’t.  

[Sports Guy]

They can but, as of today, I would surprised if they won their first series. 

They lack playoff experience (this can be good and bad though), the pen isn’t strong enough, the young players, both positional and pitching, could definitely be gassed and I just think other teams are better equipped for the playoffs.

I really worry about the wearing down factor of this team.

Ask me this question again in 6 weeks and I may feel differently but as of today, those things worry me and I see them losing to the 4/5 series winner, which I think will be the Houston or Texas, whoever loses their division.

[wildcard]

The O's will be the Cinderella team in the playoffs.   A lot depends on how long the pitching can go before it turns into a pumpkin.     Grayson, Bradish and Bautista all have the talent to beat anyone.  But at what point does the arm strength turn into arm tiredness.   If I remember right last year Bautista was sailing along and then in September he put up an ERA of 7.04.

Its up to Hyde to get these guys as much rest as possible and save them for the playoffs.  He needs to use Irvin and Voth to eat innings in September.  See what Wells has left and see if Hall can help.

Lining up the pitchers for the playoffs this year may be more about saving the arms in September.

Edited August 19, 2023 by wildcard

[Aristotelian]

I think we can, not saying we will. We are at 75 wins, second to Atlanta. We are 40-30 vs .500 teams, also second to Atlanta (41-25). HOU, TEX, TB, and LAD all scare me but I think we would put up a good fight and win our share of games against them. 

Need the right guys to peak at the right time and get some breaks. I feel good about Bradish and Grayson giving us a chance to win against anyone. We still don't know what we have in Means. Kremer/Irvin/Flaherty are all capable of getting wins or getting hit hard, you just never know. 

Bautista is a beast. I could see him going Chapman mode and pitching 2+ innings when needed. Cano is looking better (no ER in August). Webb and Perez look solid right now (just watch the guy on third!). That could be enough to get it done. 

[brucewayne]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Assuming we win the division, at 50% odds each series our odds would be 8-1.  If we don’t win the division, then 16-1.  So, 10-1 is kind of a hedge, as our odds to win the division right now are better than 50% but far from certain.  

I’m a firm believer that the playoffs are mostly a crapshoot, and that the odds of winning any particular series truly are about 50/50.  That said, I do think the Braves and Dodgers have a slight edge over us, and I think Texas and Houston might have a small edge on us too.  So, instead of 10-1, I’d probably put it at more like 14-1.   

I see that Fangraphs has us at about 24-1 (4.2%), less thst half the chance the Rays have, even though we are favored to win the Duvision.  Go figure.  

 

It's not a crapshoot. Whoever plays better will win the series. I think the Orioles can win it all. 

[Sports Guy]

57 minutes ago, brucewayne said:

It's not a crapshoot. Whoever plays better will win the series. I think the Orioles can win it all. 

It’s absolutely a crapshoot in that there is a ton of luck involved, as is the case every year in all sports.

SSS, short series..lots of odd things happen that lose you games that in a 162 season you overcome but in a short series, they bury you.

Edited August 19, 2023 by Sports Guy

[dystopia]

1 hour ago, brucewayne said:

It's not a crapshoot. Whoever plays better will win the series. I think the Orioles can win it all. 

It is a bit of a crapshoot since the sample size is so small. A team gets hot at the right time and can go a big time run. Look at the '06 Cardinals. Or 2014 Giants.

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, brucewayne said:

It's not a crapshoot. Whoever plays better will win the series. I think the Orioles can win it all. 

By crapshoot we mean that the difference in talent between Major League teams isn't as much as it seems. The worst team in baseball has something like a 30% chance to win a best of five against the best team. And that's worst and best. Two playoff caliber teams and it will be nearly a coin flip.

Edited August 19, 2023 by ChosenOne21

[coolbeans]

Of course they can and anyone who says otherwise is suspect.  That does not mean I think they have a great chance and should be considered one of the favorites.  Conventional wisdom and history says pitching wins in the playoffs and that would put the Orioles as underdogs to a lot of the teams they may face.  However, they have shown they can beat other team’s aces so it will really come down to whether or not they get and stay hot as a team.  They should not expect to win many games where they only score a few runs.  They will likely need to win several shootout type games in each series which will prove tough but certainly not impossible with this lineup.  Would anyone really be that shocked if  Adley, Henderson, Santander, Mountcastle, O’Hearn, and/ or Mullins got hot or had a series of big timely hits for a 3-4 week period of time?  I wouldn’t.  That means they can win it all.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

By crapshoot we mean that the difference in talent between Major League teams isn't as much as it seems. The worst team in baseball has something like a 30% chance to win a best of five against the best team. And that's worst and best. Two playoff caliber teams and it will be nearly a coin flip.

I agree with the latter.  However, I don’t think the worst team in baseball wouid have a 30% chance of beating the best over 5 games.  My math skills are a bit rusty, but if we’re talking a .300 level team, their chances of winning any specific game would be under 30% (because they’re playing the best team, not an average team), and the odds of winning 3 of 5 are less than their odds of winning any one game.

I do think a .620 team is going to beat a .550 team in a short series more often than not, but it’s probably something like 55-60% of the time.  Again, if my math wasn’t so rusty, I could calculate the probabilities better.  

[nsw]

I am so glad that after so many fallow years, this is what everyone is arguing about. We're going to win the World Series within the next 3 years. This team represents the front/early stage of our talent wave. 

[InsideCoroner]

I think we certainly can, but I am honestly dubious abut our chances against Atlanta in a 7-game series. 

[AnythingO's]

10 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

Pitching wins in the post season. We simply don't have enough and the ones we have are really showing wear. They are gassed.

They lack playoff experience (this can be good and bad though), the pen isn’t strong enough, the young players, both positional and pitching, could definitely be gassed and I just think other teams are better equipped for the playoffs.

I agree with Roy and SG here, we don't have enough pitching we can count on and both position players and pitchers seem gassed. However, with 6 weeks or so left I think they "could" set themselves up better if Hyde changes his tactics a bit. With Irvin available each of Bradish, GRod, Kremer, and Flaherty could skip a start, not a 6-man, extra day, an actual skipped start with a long bullpen on the skipped day to stay on schedule. Ease the inning burden and relax with some extra downtime. Same with position players rotate Gunnar, Urias, Westburg, Frazier so each plays 3 of 4 days and also Hays, Mullins, Santander, Hicks, same thing. Come Sept 1 bring up the best position player and pitcher. For the BP that could be Hall, Wells, Means. Stop leaning on Felix to win every game and matching up in the 5th inning with 1-inning guys. If Irvin pitches the 6th, goes 1-2-3 in 12 pitches why in the world would you burn Fugi and Cano, Hyde did and then they weren't available when needed next. He needs to use his long guys as long guys, not 1-inning guys or Loogies. Pick setup guys not named Cano (Perez/Tate?), guys work better when they know their roles. Hyde has ridden Felix, Cano and 3-4 other guys too hard and they are all on track to blow past max innings ever, same with Bradish, Kremer, GRod. He has managed day to day to win every game and that is why we are 1st. But he can't do it the same way to the finish or we will collapse IMO. With options like Irvin, Fugi, Webb, Wells, Means, Hall becoming available he has a chance to ease up on the guys we will need in the playoffs by ridding the new, fresher guys. 

Edited August 19, 2023 by AnythingO's
typo

[orioleslist]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s absolutely a crapshoot in that there is a ton of luck involved, as is the case every year in all sports.

Not to pick a fight, but that isn't the case in most soccer leagues outside the US. Leagues of 18 or 20 teams, no playoffs, each team plays all others home and away and at the end of the year, the team with the most points is the champ.

There is still some luck involved in that format but much less than in US sports--and certainly not "a ton". It's the fairest of systems IMO.

[NCRaven]

3 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

We have as good a chance as pretty much anyone. We've got one of the best records in baseball and are showing no signs of slowing down. I could count on one hand the number of teams who I think are more likely to win the Series than us.

Down voting someone just because you disagree with someone is a dick move.