Trade chips replaced in-house = Salary Relief

[emmett16]

Anthony Santander >>> Heston Kjerstad = $7,400,000+

Ramon Urias >>> Coby Mayo = $734,700+

Adam Frazier >>> Jackson Holiday = $8,000,000 *not a trade chip, just 2024 salary relief

Austin Hays >>> Colton Cowser = $3,200,000+

Jorge Mateo >>> Joey Ortiz = $2,000,000+ 

Kyle Gibson >>> John Means = $10,000,000 *not a trade chip, just 2024 salary relief

Salaries above are for 2023 and don't include arbitration raises, which will likely be steep for Santander and Hays.  Urias enters arbitration for the first time and will be due a significant raise.  Frazier will be gone clearing out his $8MM salary.  Mateo might be tradable.  Folks keep saying we need to trade from the IF depth and that there isn't enough room for all our IF prospects.  I don't see that happening - I believe they will trade Santander, Urias, and Hays.  The guys in AAA are direct replacements for the "expensive" guys on the MLB roster this year.  By trading Santander, Hays, & Urias and jettisoning Mateo(maybe trade), Gibson & Frazier the Orioles are going to save ~$30-35MM.  The new group, as a whole, is likely to outperform the incumbents.  

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by emmett16

[owknows]

You're starting to sound like me... only no one is yelling at you.

 

 

[ArtVanDelay]

I’d like to keep Santander but the rest can go. 
 

I do like Urias as a bench piece though. 

Edited August 27, 2023 by ArtVanDelay

[Jim'sKid26]

@emmett16

Could you see a similar savings with Gibson? Perhaps with Wells?

So Gibson>>>Wells = ~$10 M

Edited August 27, 2023 by Jim'sKid26
clarification

[owknows]

Just now, ArtVanDelay said:

I’d like to keep Santander but the rest can go. 

Yeah... I'd have to see a good return on Hays or Santander..

 

But you likely would

[emmett16]

6 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

@emmett16

Could you see a similar savings with Gibson? Perhaps with Wells?

I don't know how they replace Gibson's innings this year.  He's got a shot to throw the most innings in MLB this year.  Maybe Kremer is his heir apparent, but short of that they'll need to cover those innings somehow.  I'm hoping a potential trade package could net us his replacement.  Wells will go to Arb1 next year and will get a raise, but won't be incredibly expensive.  I can't see them moving him.  Pitching is something you can't have too much of, IMO.  Outside of McDermott and Povich we don't have many SPs with a shot at being productive at the MLB level next year. 

[DirtyBird]

19 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Austin Hays >>> Colton Cowser = $3,200,000+

What if we want to keep our best players?

[MurphDogg]

I'm not sure they trade both Santander and Hays, nor am I certain that both Urias and Mateo will be gone.

I don't think they are going to pencil Holliday in for Opening Day, I think he will get the mid-August treatment that Gunnar got last year. 

I think they probably should bring Holliday up earlier, especially if they hope to contend next year which they certainly should. But I understand the value in punting on a guy's age 21 season so that you can have his age 26 season under club control.

Holliday is going to hit free agency so young anyway, that he might consider an early deal that gets him a guaranteed $100M, gets him into the Majors a year earlier and only pushes free agency to age 28 where he would still have a good shot at an historic free agent contract.

[Malike]

There is a chance that one or more of those players listed on the right will not be league-average MLB players despite what they are doing or what lists they are on in the minors. Would be nice if they all hit, but I doubt we're going 5 for 5 on them.

[emmett16]

16 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

I’d like to keep Santander but the rest can go. 
 

I do like Urias as a bench piece though. 

I'd like to keep Santander as well.  The OP was more about what I expect to happen.  Not what I'd like to see.  

 

I think a rotation, dependent on match-ups, of Gunnar, Ortiz, Westburg, Mayo, Holiday around the IF & DH could be more productive than Urias in traditional bench role.  

[emmett16]

3 minutes ago, Malike said:

There is a chance that one or more of those players listed on the right will not be league-average MLB players despite what they are doing or what lists they are on in the minors. Would be nice if they all hit, but I doubt we're going 5 for 5 on them.

I agree, that's why I said "as a whole".  I think Kjerstad & Cowser will struggle to outperform Santander and Hays, but Ortiz, Holiday & Mayo will be able to outperform their counterparts.  I also think improvement from the guys on the roster now (Adley, Gunnar, Westburg) will help to buffer the loss of the guys listed on the left. 

[HakunaSakata]

Replacing the two OFs makes the most sense. Ideally, both would be traded to bolster the starting rotation and bullpen. I doubt we see Holiday at the start of the season, but there's still no need for Frazier. Mateo should be released or traded for a bag of balls. 

[emmett16]

6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

What if we want to keep our best players?

Again, not what I would do but more of what I see the org doing.   I, unfortunately, think that having a low payroll is just about top priority for the org right now.  It stinks, but to pretend that isn't the case is kind of silly, no? 

[DirtyBird]

6 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Replacing the two OFs makes the most sense. Ideally, both would be traded to bolster the starting rotation and bullpen. I doubt we see Holiday at the start of the season, but there's still no need for Frazier. Mateo should be released or traded for a bag of balls. 

You think teams will give up a starter who is better than our #5 for one of our OFs?

[btdart20]

I’ve been calling this “dealing from the top of the deck.”  It’s maximizing player value and profits.  Plus it allows Elias to minimize rookie risk as he can be selective on who moves and when.  I doubt all of those guys get traded, but it would be good to see some more progress dealing with the backlog of talent.  This batch of potential tradables has more value than the Mancini/Lopez crew.  The team’s set up even allows them to target any type of talent they want back in return (immediate contributors, long term…).